Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Immediately after wresting back the Nationals' leadership, the best justification Barnaby Joyce could give for his long-fought campaign was that he had a "different suite of attributes" to Michael McCormack.
This was a polite way of saying his triumph over McCormack, which has rolled a barrel of lit firecrackers into the Coalition relationship, was about dumping a boring, predictable, pushover for a more exciting, outspoken, and effective "retail politician".
In short, it was about giving the Nationals more grunt and a better chance at the election.
Not all Nationals, however, are convinced the second coming of Barnaby is the recipe for electoral success. And it's worth returning to Monday's party room vote to look at exactly who voted for and against this change to better understand what drove it.
The Nationals
have a quaint rule about keeping the details of leadership ballots
confidential, but most MPs have a pretty good idea which way each of
their colleagues voted.
Ken O'Dowd, who holds the Nationals' most marginal seat of Flynn in central Queensland, backed Barnaby Joyce. O'Dowd is retiring at the next election, so won't be trying to win over undecided voters with Barnaby by his side.
The next three most marginal seat holders in the National Party are Kevin Hogan (Page 9.5 per cent), Pat Conaghan (Cowper 11.9 per cent) and Michelle Landry (Capricornia 12.4 per cent). All three wanted to stick with McCormack. The day before the vote, Landry even issued a public warning, telling news.com.au "there would be women out there that would be unhappy" about a return to Joyce.
Anne Webster, who holds the safer seat of Mallee (but is expected to face an independent challenger), also warned some constituents "would be very unimpressed" with a return to Joyce.
So, for all the talk of Joyce being Australia's greatest "retail politician", those facing re-election in the most difficult seats felt otherwise.
The aim of this muscling-up is clear
Those pushing the hardest in favour of Joyce were members of the Nationals' pro-coal camp.
O'Dowd, George Christensen and Llew O'Brien all represent Queensland coal seats. Matt Canavan, the Queensland Senator who has become Parliament's most avid coal supporter and even dresses as an ashen-faced miner on social media, led the charge by moving the spill motion.
Joyce, in turn, made it clear protecting coal would be his priority. In his first hour back at the dispatch box as Deputy Prime Minister, he declared he would be "absolutely focused, laser-like, on the coal miners".
The question now is whether he can deliver more than just rhetoric.
Already, the Nats who backed him in are emboldened. They've clashed with Liberals twice in two days: on childcare support and the government's own Murray-Darling Basin Plan reforms.
The aim of this "muscling up" is clear. This is about sending a clear warning to the Prime Minister as he negotiates a new Coalition agreement with Joyce. The Nationals, under their new-old leader, are prepared to throw their weight around and cause far more trouble if they don't get their way on policy and ministerial portfolios.
For all the noise in different policy areas, the big test — the self-imposed test for Joyce — remains coal.
Can he really stop Australia joining 122 other countries in committing to the net-zero by 2050 target? Can he convince the Prime Minister to ignore the pressure from the Pacific, the US, the UK and Europe as well as every business group, the National Farmers Federation, the Cattle Council and a growing number of voters?
Morrison's head must be spinning
Morrison was already willing to offer carve-outs and compensation for farmers when McCormack was leader. He's already been arguing there's a future for heavy industry through new technologies like hydrogen. The question now is what he will give Joyce on coal.
If Joyce,
with his "different suite of attributes" and "laser-like focus", can't
deliver something more for coal workers than McCormack, the leadership
change will look more like the vanity project the new leader's
shell-shocked internal critics believe it was.
As Morrison works out how to handle this difficult new dynamic, he's been forced to watch on via a scratchy video link from the Lodge, unable to control events.
Coalition MPs are back to debating the merits of childcare, whether to build a new coal-fired power station and whether to unpick the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. It's like the government has gone back in time.
The Prime Minister's head must be spinning. His efforts to re-position on climate change and win back women are threatened by the return of Joyce. His Deputy Prime Minister is now on a mission to prove he ain't no Liberal lackey. National Party MPs are now picking internal fights wherever they can.
The new Nationals leader is certainly good at capturing attention and belting Labor, and some in the Coalition believe that will be an asset come the election.
But right now he's thrown the government into chaos. And chaos is not an "attribute" Morrison needs in the middle of a pandemic.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
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