Extract from ABC News
Analysis
There is considerable pragmatic pessimism in the Gulf about the mess Donald Trump will leave behind. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)
Every commercial airliner that has left Dubai or Abu Dhabi airports in the past few days has been accompanied by a jet fighter from the United Arab Emirates Air Force.
The UAE — determined to maintain as much "normality" as possible amid the chaos in its part of the world — is at pains to get thousands of stranded travellers home to show that it can still function as a reliable major transport hub.
Having done a backchannels deal with Iran — even as Iran has continued to fire more missiles and drones at the non-combatant UAE than Israel — to create a safe flying corridor that heads south and skirts the Gulf, the Emiratis are doing everything they can to keep planes moving.
The UAE's reputation as a safe haven, a good place for expats to live and for multinationals to invest, has been hard won.
It is the most successful model of a Gulf country diversifying away from oil revenues.
So its interest is not just in caring for travellers but safeguarding that reputation.
A delicate deal is understood to have been negotiated to allow some passengers to leave. (Reuters: Kai Pfaffenbach)
But just think of how much this deployment is costing. And then consider the further cost it has borne from intercepting more than 1,000 missiles and drones fired by Iran over the past week.
The hand that Iran is able to play, even with its degraded strike capability, is that it is using up relatively cheap and easier to replace weaponry like drones — sometimes costing only a few thousand dollars — compared to the multimillion-dollar cost of the Gulf's air defence systems.
The issue of re-supply
Spokesman for the Emirati defence ministry, Major General Abdur Naisal al Humaidi, gave a press briefing this week in which he insisted that the UAE has "defence and military capabilities and systems, including advanced national industries, to enable it to defend its territory and protect its people regardless of the duration of the regional escalation".
But as is the case with other countries in the region who have found themselves targeted by Iran's strategy of attacking its neighbours to cause havoc in world energy markets and maximise pressure on Donald Trump, there is some nervousness in places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi about whether they really do have enough air defence ordinance to go for a really long period of time.
It's not just about the cost of course. Re-supply is an issue. And that's complicated.
While there is a heavy reliance on US ordinance by the Gulf states, analysts say systems from Russia, China and other countries are also used.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — as if he didn't have enough problems of his own — said this week that he had spoken to the leaders of both Qatar and the UAE about providing them with some of the much cheaper surface to air defence systems and drones being used in the war in his country, rather than things with big price tags like fighter jets and Patriot missile interceptors that are currently used.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the US asked Kyiv for help defending Gulf allies against Iranian drones. (AP Photo: Danylo Antoniuk)
Pause for a moment and think of this as just one example of how Trump's "war of choice" is reworking the global strategic map.
The other signs of that fallout — and that there are pressures in the Gulf systems — came on Friday with separate stories in the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times reporting that the UAE was considering both freezing Iranian assets, and separately, that four of the big Gulf states were considering curbing their massive foreign investments — including in the US — to help fund the huge cost of the unexpected war effort.
The Journal reported the possible Iranian assets freeze as "a move that could sever one of Tehran's most important economic lifelines".
"If the UAE goes ahead it would significantly curb Tehran's access to foreign currency and global trade networks as its domestic economy, already buckling under inflation, is now engulfed in a military conflict," the Journal noted.
"Emirati officials have privately warned Iran of the possible action, people familiar with the warnings said. It isn't clear when, or if, the Emirati government will decide to act.
"The UAE has for years functioned as a financial hub for Iranian businesses and individuals seeking a haven from Western sanctions, according to analysts tracking Tehran's activities and the US Treasury.
"Iran's sanctions-evasion infrastructure has allowed Tehran to keep selling oil abroad and use the proceeds to fund weapons programs and regional proxies, they say."
So on the one hand Gulf countries are upping the pressure on Iran, and on the other they are ratcheting up pressure on the US.
President Donald Trump says much of Iran's military force has been "knocked out". (AP: Alex Brandon)
Pessimism in the Gulf
The Financial Times reported that "pressure on the Gulf states' budgets could cause them to review their overseas investments and future commitments as they consider options to ease the financial strain caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran".
"A Gulf official said it could have an impact on anything from investment pledges to foreign states or companies, sports sponsorships, contracts with businesses and investors, or sales of holdings," the Times said.
Hmmm, have there been any big "investment" pledges lately?
The FT noted that "an adviser to a Gulf government said the prospect of an investment review by the wealthy states had caught the White House's attention".
"They manage some of the world's largest and most active sovereign wealth funds and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar last year pledged to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the US after President Donald Trump visited the region," it said.
"The official said three of the four big Gulf economies — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar — had jointly discussed the strains being put on their budget and economies. But they declined to name the states."
Of course, all these manoeuvres are dragging the Gulf states further into this war whether they like it or not.
And while the cabaret of outlandish and contradictory statements and claims continues in Washington, there is considerable pragmatic pessimism in the Gulf about the mess Trump will leave behind.
No-one knows how the current conflagration is going to end. But few really believe there will actually be regime change achieved in Iran.
There is a high degree of confidence however that the US will just walk away at some point, showing no sense of responsibility for the mess.
The language from Washington has morphed into a picture which focuses mostly on Iran's military capabilities being so degraded as to not be a risk — for which you can perhaps read "to Israel".
But in the meantime all sorts of realignments and ethnic, religious and national tensions have been ignited.
It might not mean major regional conflict. But it might mean even more instability and changes in those big power balances between the players who ultimately have an interest in this region, including Russia and China.
'Who gave you permission?'
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor is someone who you might normally consider a Donald Trump sort of guy, the billionaire chairman of the Al Habtoor Group with interests in the hospitality, automotive, real estate, education and publishing sectors. Particularly luxury hotels globally.
He is often described as a diplomat — though he has never officially been that. It's a reflection of his public standing and global advocacy for the UAE.
According to Forbes, Al Habtoor is ranked 335th among the world's wealthiest individuals with an estimated net worth of $US2.3 billion ($3.3 billion).
He previously collaborated with Trump on a 2008 Dubai construction project for the Trump International Hotel and Tower, though the project was later shelved.
The business relationship ended in 2015 following Trump's controversial travel ban proposal targeting Muslims.
Al Habtoor wrote an open letter to Trump on X this week:
"Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran? Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield?" it began.
He wanted to know whether the decision to go to war was "your decision or Netanyahu's pressure?"
"Did you calculate collateral damage before firing?" he asked.
He said Trump had "placed GCC [Gulf Cooperation] countries at the heart of danger they didn't choose".
"Your 'Board of Peace' initiatives were funded by Gulf states. Now we're getting attacked. Where did that money go?"
And he wasn't finished.
The billionaire challenged Trump on his promise of "no wars" and pointed out that "you've conducted operations in seven countries: Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran and Venezuela".
There have been 658 air strikes in Trump's first year back, he said, which was equal to Joe Biden's entire term "which you criticised".
"True leadership is not measured by war decisions, but by wisdom, respect for others, and pushing toward achieving peace".
This is from one of the United States's closest allies in the region.
There is all sorts of other fallout from the conflict so far which points to its folly, even just in terms of Trump's other alleged strategic aims.
For example, the US has had to ease sanctions on Russian oil sales to India because of the closing down of supply via the Strait of Hormuz.
It is all very complicated.
And whatever happens, it will redraw all the linkages between the Gulf region and the rest of the world.
Laura Tingle is the ABC's global affairs editor.
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