Extract from ABC News
By Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran in Amman
Donald Trump doubled down on threats to wipe out Iran if it does not come to the negotiating table. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
Hello. ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran reporting from a wet and wintry Amman this morning.
Here’s your round-up of the latest big issues in the Middle East conflict after day 27 of the war.
What you need to know today:
- Donald Trump is now expressing scepticism at the prospect of a peace deal anytime soon. It is a dramatic change in rhetoric, after saying just days ago that there were positive signs for peace. Iran had publicly ridiculed those remarks, even though it has since become clear that indirect negotiations (of a sort) were underway, with Pakistan as the intermediary.
- Iran has rejected the 15-point plan presented by the Trump administration. It is being labelled "one-sided and unfair" – insisting it was weighted towards Israel and the US, without acknowledging Iran's interests.
- One of the issues is control over the Strait of Hormuz: Iran wants its sovereignty recognised; Mr Trump wants joint control. Israel has said it killed the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy in an attempt to reopen the shipping channel.
- Iran has launched multiple missile barrages at Israel over the course of the day, as Israel continued attacking sites across Iran – including that strike on the IRGC. Fighting also continues in southern Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, with one Israeli soldier killed.
- Meanwhile, heavy rain and wind are lashing much of the Middle East, from Iran and the Gulf states through to Gaza. While it may seem odd to be discussing the weather in a report on the war, it is worth remembering that the conditions could have an effect on attacks – impacting interception systems for missiles and drones, for example.
Here's what all that means
In the Trump era, diplomacy takes on a unique tone and tenor. Rarely, if ever, has the use of ALL CAPS been such a prominent negotiating tool.
In case you were struggling to keep up, early Sunday morning (Middle East time), Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform a threat to bomb Iranian power plants if the regime didn't release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Just over a day later, he walked that back, saying there were positive signs Iran would negotiate.
Now, we’re in this sort of middle ground as the US president talks about the difficulties in reaching a deal and his uncertainty about the outcome, all the while labelling the negotiators as "begging" to make a deal and warning there will be “NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty” if Tehran refuses to agree.
And Mr Trump has revealed the great gift Iran gave him in the earlier stages of the talks — "eight boats, eight big boats" of oil passing through the Strait. "Actually, they then apologised for something they said, and they said, 'We're going to send two more boats'."
There is no denying that Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have shaken the regime. They have attacked it in a way the world has never seen before – but in return have spurred a massive regional conflict which has dragged multiple countries into the mire.
Mr Trump's constantly shifting language may indicate a realisation that this negotiation is not going to be like others.
Many have commented on Mr Trump’s belligerence throughout his career, and the success he has had at times in coaxing people to agree with him as a result – traits which have continued into his political career.
But with Iran, despite the massive losses it has sustained already, he faces a different opponent – one more tightly bound to its ideology than Mr Trump is to his own view of the world.
He says Iran desperately wants to make a deal. As the war stretches into a second month, he wants to as well.
And here's the impact in Australia
- Iran visa ban: Australia's snap ban on travellers with Iranian visitor visas will affect up to 7,000 people. In this report from our PM program, the reaction from Australia's Iranian community is that "innocent people always get burnt" (🎧 5m04s).
No comments:
Post a Comment