Extract from ABC News
This photo taken in Tel Aviv, Israel, in June 2025 shows missiles launched from Iran being intercepted. (Reuters: Jamal Awad)
G'day, Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran here, from Amman.
Here's today's daily update to get you up to speed with the latest happenings in the region as the war rolls into its third week.
Here's what you need to know today:
- Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has denied the country is running out of interceptor missiles. Over the weekend, US news outlet Semafor cited an unnamed US official saying Israel had warned the country its air defences were being stretched by Iran's relentless retaliatory bombardments.
- Mr Sa'ar was also asked about reports Israel and Lebanon would hold direct talks in coming days. He had a pretty straightforward answer for both those points: "No."
- A winter downpour hit Lebanon over the weekend, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis that has developed there over the past fortnight. It is believed more than 800,000 people have been forced from their homes, and more than 800 killed, as Israel intensified its bombardment of the capital and southern Lebanon.
- Israeli forces continue to mass along the country's northern border, amid reports that a ground invasion of southern Lebanon is imminent. Axios quoted one Israeli official over the weekend saying it was preparing to "do what we did in Gaza".
- US President Donald Trump has told American network NBC that Iran's Kharg Island, a major oil depot, has been "totally destroyed" — adding that the US might hit it a few more times "just for fun". He has also reiterated his calls on other countries around the world to step up and help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
What's the fallout?
There have been mixed messages on just how long this war would rage on — and not just because of how it has crippled much of the Middle East. One of the key concerns is how long countries can defend themselves.
That's an issue that reared its head over the weekend, as reporting emerged from the US suggesting Israel had warned its partner in this conflict that it was running low on interceptor missiles.
Israel's sophisticated air defence systems, one part of which is known as the "Iron Dome", are one of the most lauded anywhere in the world — it's even prompted Donald Trump to want to build his own, albeit over a much, much larger stretch of land. But we know after last year's 12 Day War between Israel and Iran, there were reports that the intense barrage of Iranian retaliatory strikes had left little in the stockpiles.
Mr Sa'ar was touring the site of an Iranian missile impact in northern Israel when he was asked if that report was accurate. He said no. That's not necessarily surprising — Israel isn't likely to telegraph any vulnerabilities in its defences, even if the report was accurate.
But given that warning sirens are going off multiple times a day and night across Israel, it could fuel fear in the community.
Mr Sa'ar has also denied the prospects of talks between Israel and Lebanon, as the conflict there deepens. The French looked like they might broker those talks, but he said it wouldn't happen.
Lebanon has been dragged into this regional conflict after the Iranian-backed Hezbollah opened fire on Israel in solidarity with the regime in Tehran. And it's fuelled a humanitarian crisis that the government cannot endure.
Ironically, winter weather hitting the country added insult to injury to many sleeping rough as a result of forced displacement. But it also meant Israeli air strikes had to be wound back.
The shockwaves of this conflict are being felt most keenly in energy markets, and Mr Trump reiterated his demand that countries step in to secure shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron flagged trying to launch a mission along those lines — but Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has today warned against that, suggesting it could escalate the conflict even further.
It followed comments from the US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying people didn't "need to worry about it".
If you want more today, try this …
- Oil infrastructure sites have been attacked repeatedly in this war so far, and now there's a new front: technology. With three strikes on data centres, it's becoming clear AI is now a target
And here's how to stay up to date:
You can keep track of the latest updates from Iran and around the world throughout the day via our live blog.
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
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