Extract from ABC News
Israeli and US strikes have rocked Tehran since the war began. (Reuters: ISNA/WANA/Majid Khahi)
Hi, I'm ABC global affairs editor Laura Tingle, and I'm in Dubai as the war in the Middle East enters its second week.
I'm giving you daily updates to help you quickly understand what's going on.
Here's what you need to know today:
- In breaking news this morning, Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader, replacing his father. The country's Assembly of Experts has called on Iranians to pledge allegiance to him.
- And yet this regime is in turmoil. Deep divisions between the government and military have been laid bare after its president apologised to Gulf neighbours for attacking them, only for the Revolutionary Guard to escalate those attacks within minutes.
- Gulf state patience with Iran is running out. Saudi Arabia has warned Tehran that continued strikes on the kingdom could force it to respond in kind. The UAE, more tersely, said it reserved the right to take "all necessary measures" to protect its sovereignty.
- The human toll across the region keeps mounting. Hundreds of thousands are fleeing Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Tehran, toxic pollution from a destroyed oil refinery is now being washed down on residents by rainfall. Israel's Iron Dome has kept its casualties relatively low — but it is now fighting on two fronts: against Iran and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the death toll is rising.
- US Central Command has confirmed a seventh US soldier has died, from wounds sustained during Iran's initial counter-attack a week ago.
What's the fallout?
The biggest unknowns in this conflict actually concern countries that aren't involved. Generally assessed to be wildly outgunned by the US and Israel, Iran is trying to counter by attacking neighbouring countries with the aim of maximising the regional and global damage.
Over the weekend, Iran's justification has focused on the presence of US bases and forces in the Gulf states, but these have explicitly not been used in actions against Iran during this conflict. And Iran has been hitting the Gulf states' civilian buildings and infrastructure.
The Gulf states, despite their extraordinary wealth, are highly vulnerable: Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the Gulf's oil output normally flows (about 20 per cent of the world's supply), now also threatens the Gulf's food supplies, given 90 per cent of food in the region is imported.
This dirty war is also being fought over perhaps the most precious of commodities in such an arid region: water.
More than 400 desalination plants line the Persian Gulf. The UAE and Kuwait each get 90 per cent of their drinking water from them, Oman 86 per cent and Saudi Arabia 70 per cent. So far, there has been damage to a UAE water plant at Fujairah and to Kuwait's Doha West plant — though this appears to have come from falling debris from nearby strikes rather than targeted hits.
Then on Sunday, Iran struck a desalination plant in Bahrain, cutting water supply — and separately, Iran's foreign minister said a US air strike damaged an Iranian desalination plant on Qeshm Island.
But the story then got really complicated. Israeli media quoted Israeli sources as saying it had been the UAE that had struck the Iranian desalination plan — a hugely significant development as it would have been the first time a Gulf state directly attacked Iran.
UAE official Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi quickly responded, flatly calling the claim "fake news", adding: "When we do something, we have the courage to announce it."
A source close to the Emirates told The Jerusalem Post that the UAE was "struggling to understand Israeli conduct and the nature of briefings coming out of Jerusalem", and accused Israeli officials of leaking false reports about UAE actions. "It is not appropriate for what is described as a senior Israeli source to speak on our behalf or spread rumours about the actions of another sovereign state," the source said.
The leak was widely seen as an attempt by Israel to drag the UAE directly into the conflict.
If you want more today, try this …
- My colleague Patricia Karvelas has been reflecting on her early years in the Canberra press gallery and how much has changed since Anthony Albanese spoke out against the Iraq War and regime change when he was in opposition. She looks at the political risks of the government backing the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
And here's how to stay up to date:
You can keep track of the latest updates from Iran and around the world throughout the day via our live blog.
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
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