Extract from ABC News
Iran has been controlling the passage of ships in and out of the Persian Gulf. (Supplied: Sentinel Hub)
Iran is running one of the world's most critical shipping lanes as a "toll booth" and has likely made hundreds of millions of dollars of extra income from selling its own oil since the US and Israel waged war against the regime.
Daily traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is down about 95 per cent since February 28, according to maritime tracking agencies, as ships face attack or the threat of attack around the Persian Gulf.
But Iran's friends, and its own tankers, have been allowed to pass as part of what has been described as Iran's "selective closure" of the elbow-shaped waterway. Other ships are taking the risk and running the gauntlet.
About five to six large vessels — tankers, bulk carriers and container ships — are moving daily through the narrow strait, ABC analysis of available marine tracking data and satellite imagery shows.
"A comment that's got some in the US government mad at me [is] that the Iranians have control of the strait," said former merchant mariner and marine historian Sal Mercogliano.
"They're running it like a toll booth."
On March 15, the Pakistan-owned Karachi was the first non-sanctioned oil tanker to make it through the Strait of Hormuz while broadcasting its tracking location.
The vessel's tracking data shows it crossing close to the Iranian coast, rather than taking the more commonly-used shipping lane that flows mostly through Omani waters.
Analysts told the ABC this was a clear sign Iran had established a new shipping corridor, so vessels could be tracked completely inside Iranian waters.
"They're coordinating with the Iranians for passage out, but to verify, they're going up there … they're passing by, and they're getting positively identified," Dr Mercogliano said.
"About a dozen of them now have done that."
As it asserts its control over the body of water, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is also imposing a de facto 'toll booth' regime, according to maritime data company Lloyd's List, which reported at least two ships so far have paid for passage.
Iran is working on a new law to formalise the process, with the plan expected to be finalised next week, according to Iranian state media.
"Iran charges $2 million from each ship as a transit fee," senior Iranian parliamentary official Alaeddin Boroujerdi told state media.
"In other words, after 47 years, there is a new, de facto sovereign regime in the Strait of Hormuz."
As global economic and supply pressures continue to grow from Iran's effective blockade, its regime has continued to profit by selling its oil.
Satellite imagery from March 17 shows one oil tanker and two supertankers at Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export hub. (Supplied: Sentinel Hub)
Iran's crude oil exports have been relatively unimpeded by the war, with the nation moving an estimated 1.6 million barrels a day on average from March 1 to March 23, according to maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers.
The spike in oil prices since the start of the war, along with the United States' decision to lift its sanctions on Iranian oil to help boost global supply, has also increased the flow of money into the Iranian regime's coffers.
It's a different story for nations that rely on oil and gas imports inside the Persian Gulf.
Governments worldwide are deploying measures to combat shortages and high energy prices, while some nations most impacted by the strait closure are engaging in diplomatic efforts directly with Iran.
But even countries with working relationships with the regime are not guaranteed safe passage through the critical shipping lane.
The ships making it across the Strait of Hormuz
Before the war started on February 28, about 138 vessels passed through the strait each day, carrying one fifth of the global oil and gas supply, according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre.
But data analysed by the ABC shows only about 150 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and March 26, including about 46 oil tankers, compared to the pre-war average of about 50 a day.
More than one-fifth of the ships making the crossing are owned by Iran, although the data offers an incomplete picture as many Iranian vessels are sailing without broadcasting their locations.
Many of the other ships that have passed in recent weeks are owned by companies in Greece, China, India, the United Arab Emirates and the Marshall Islands.
Some were allowed through, while others took their chances through the strait.
Greece owns the second highest-number of ships crossing the body of water, which industry sources said was a result of the approach of some Greek ship owners.
Dr Mercogliano said the halting of traffic through the strait has driven up the cost of shipping to the benefit of some companies.
"When you have a charter that's paying 10 times the normal value, you're going to pay your crew a little bit extra money, and you're going to run the strait — and that's exactly what they did," he said.
Other ships that have transited the strait through Iran's coastal waters in recent days include several China and India-owned oil and gas tankers broadcasting "CHINA OWNER" and "INDIA SHIP&IND CREW".
The ABC revealed earlier this week the first ship bound for Australia, which escaped the Persian Gulf after the war started, was a Japanese-owned bulk carrier that transited the strait while broadcasting "CHINA OWNER" from its transponder.
Diplomacy behind the scenes
Several governments are in direct talks with Tehran about securing safe passage for their ships, including China and India, according to Lloyd's List.
"I assume the way you do it is by agreeing to an identification signal, by re-flagging tankers or … by having agreed protocols for identifying a particular shipment as belonging to or heading to a particular country," said Sir John Jenkins, a retired senior British diplomat and Middle East expert.
Large parts of Asia rely on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In India, for example, more than 40 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East. The strait also carries about half of the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and most of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipments.
India's Pine Gas LPG Carrier crossed the Strait of Hormuz and was expected to reach port this week. (Supplied: Government of India)
Given the nation's reliance on the gulf, Indian ministers have indicated a preference towards negotiating with Tehran to get vessels through the critical shipping lane.
"Certainly, from India's perspective, it is better that we reason and we coordinate and we get a solution, than we don't," Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the Financial Times.
Indian Navy warships in the Gulf of Oman have been escorting some vessels, which have been allowed to leave the Persian Gulf via Iran's shores, including two LPG tankers on March 23.
Comparing their paths with that of an India-owned oil tanker from two weeks ago indicates a potential change in arrangement between India and Iran.
Mr Jaishankar had indicated there was no "blanket arrangement" in place for Indian-flagged ships.
China is similarly impacted by the closure of the strait, with estimates it buys around 90 per cent of the oil that Iran exports to the global market.
Sir John compared the situation to when the Houthis, a militant group, caused significant traffic disruptions in the Red Sea in late 2023.
After weeks of disruptions, Beijing reportedly intervened by putting pressure on Iran to rein them in.
In the Strait of Hormuz, Sir John said it was in Tehran's interest to let oil to China through, given Beijing was a powerful ally.
"The Chinese would have good access to central authorities, not just the political authorities in Tehran, but also the IRGC, which is [overseeing the strait]," he said.
The strength of those connections could go some way to explaining why some Chinese vessels have made it through the strait in recent weeks.
But diplomacy only gets countries so far.
Communicating with the Iranian regime
Japan, which is dependent on the Middle East for more than 90 per cent of its oil, holds friendly relations with Iran and has tried to leverage those ties to help open the strait.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who has held multiple calls with Japan's foreign minister, was previously based in Tokyo as an ambassador.
Cargo ships have been queuing up either side of the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters)
"Iran is, of course, ready to support the passing of Japan-related vessels through the Strait of Hormuz," Mr Araghchi told Japanese news agency Kyodo News.
Not long after those comments were made, two Japanese-owned vessels that had been sold and scrapped for parts long before the war started — so-called zombie ships — were tracked sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Maritime trade analysts at Lloyd's List reported the real owner and cargo of the two vessels were being concealed by using the unique identification codes of dead vessels.
Only a few real Japan-owned ships have made the crossing since the war began, with an estimated 45 Japanese vessels still stuck in the Persian Gulf.
When asked about Mr Araghchi's comments, Japan's Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said the country was not considering unilateral negotiations with Iran for passage of its vessels.
"From Japan's perspective, since there are so many vessels involved, we believe it is extremely important to create a situation where all of them can pass through," Toshimitsu Motegi told local station Fuji Television.
Japanese diplomat Koichi Nakagawa was more sceptical about the Iranian foreign minister's recent comments.
"This is I think a kind of diplomatic trick from Tehran," he said, noting the comments were made through the media, not diplomatic channels.
"This is maybe to divide the channels between the US and Japan."
Other countries might be in an even more precarious position when it comes to negotiating with Tehran on a path out for their ships.
"Everybody will have channels into some elements in Iran," Sr John said.
But, he noted "central command and control is a problem" and it seemed unclear who was acting on behalf of the Iranian regime.
"If you agree with somebody in Tehran, does that guarantee that some Revolutionary Guard unit down on the coast is going to, a) know about that, b) care about it, and c) do anything about it?" Sr John said.
"Or are they just going to fire randomly at anything that tries to transit the straits?
"There's a whole bunch of stuff going on at the moment in the strait, which makes the picture extremely confusing."
He explained that the IRGC delegate operational tactical decisions down to a very local level, and that doctrine has been in place for at least 25 to 30 years.
"So the issue of how you make sure [some ships are allowed through] … given the degrading of central command and control in Iran, I mean, is an interesting issue," he said.
"I don't know how much redundancy the IRGC built into their communication systems to allow them to communicate in different ways when necessary with very local command units."
In mid-March, France and Italy also opened talks with Iran, seeking to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe passage for their ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported, citing people briefed on the efforts.
According to the available marine tracking data analysed by the ABC, one Italian-owned oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on March 1, and no French-owned ships have made the crossing.
"I've seen some suggestions that some European countries have been trying to [negotiate with Tehran]," Sir John said.
"That sounds a bit bizarre to me, I mean, given that the European countries are in NATO and, most of them are, even if not directly involved, are associated with the American effort."
France has since said its military chief has held talks with around 35 countries, including Italy, on a proposal to re-open the strait after the war ends.
The negotiations to end the war
Pakistan, a middle power with significant military capabilities, has positioned itself as both a messenger and host in mediations between Iran and the United States.
"They've got a real interest in ending this … given the economic fragility of Pakistan, which is massive. [The war is a] massive domestic security problem for them," Sir John said.
"They're very exposed because I think virtually all their energy comes out of the gulf ... but if nothing's coming through, Pakistan has enough economic problems of its own already without this being added."
Pakistan has working relationships with both Iran and the United States, and has previously offered to mediate between the two sides.
Iranian officials publicly insist no official negotiations with Washington are taking place, despite multiple US outlets reporting that they have quietly indicated openness to talks, and Mr Trump's claims that Iran is "desperate" to make a ceasefire deal.
Even as it plays mediator, Pakistan is still significantly impacted by the blockade in the strait.
One of its oil tankers made headlines for crossing the critical shipping lane this month, but other vessels remain trapped.
And another container ship that was headed to Pakistan, Selen, was forced to turn around by the IRGC "due to failure to comply with legal protocols and lack of permission to pass through," Iranian naval officer Alireza Tangsiri wrote on X.
"The passage of any vessel through this waterway requires full coordination with Iran's maritime sovereignty," he added.
Mr Nakagawa, who worked in the Japanese foreign office for more than 25 years with experience in the Middle East and Washington, said relationships with Iran and the United States were "very sensitive for diplomats and very difficult to manage".
He recalled that during Mr Trump's first presidency, then Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe acted as an intermediary between Iran and the United States, delivering a message between the leaders of the two nations.
But the two countries were not at open war with each other, as they are now.
"Iran has always been a sort of a lonely state … the regime is happy not to be aligned with others or not to have those sort of relationships. So it is a bit of a problem. Who do you get to talk to them?" Sir John said.
This time around, Egypt and Türkiye, as well as Pakistan, are playing the role of interlocutor, passing messages and probing for an off-ramp.
It's just not clear yet what an end to the conflict would look like and if Mr Trump and the leadership in Iran would ever agree on a deal.
*The term "ships" in this article refers to tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships.
No comments:
Post a Comment