Extract from ABC News
Iran has attacked many neighbours, including Dubai. (Reuters: Amr Alfiky)
I'm ABC global affairs editor Laura Tingle in Dubai.
I'm going to give you daily updates to help you quickly understand what's going on.
Here's what you need to know today:
- After "relative" quiet in the Gulf states — with most attacks focused on energy and US assets — the UAE capital of Abu Dhabi came under heavy (but intercepted) missile fire last night. There were explosions also reported in Qatar, Bahrain and more tankers were damaged in the Gulf. Alarms also went off in Dubai.
- The significance of the Abu Dhabi strikes is that they seemed aimed at civilian targets, including the airport, with some reports of fires, debris and emergency vehicles at a luxury hotel close to the UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as in a luxury suburb.
- A drone strike on an airport in Azerbaijan seemed to be yet another sign of Iran wanting to widen the conflict — though the strange bit here is that Azerbaijan has one of the world's biggest Shiite populations and is therefore a natural ally of Iran.
- Elsewhere, Israel continues to drive tens of thousands of people from southern Lebanon, and European countries such as France and the UK seem to be gradually being drawn into the conflict.
What's the fallout?
The fallout from events over the past 12 hours that might most affect Australians is the possibility of further disruption to flights leaving Abu Dhabi and Dubai to bring those stranded here home.
There is a lot to be said strategically for being unpredictable. And Iran has kept changing its strategy of counterattack in the days since the United States and Israel first started the conflict with the rogue state.
But what if the changes are actually the result of the very decentralisation of power that analysts have been noting in recent days as being designed to make it harder to topple the regime? What if no-one is quite in control?
Middle East analyst Dr Burcu Ozcelik told the ABC on Thursday night that she thought Iran's attack on Azerbaijan was "a miscalculation". "One possibility is that it's caused by confusion and poor decision-making in a very fractured command and control hierarchy in panic mode," she said.
"I think there are also those inside the security apparatus that are seeking escalation to be able to exert more pressure on Washington."
We always presume people have a cunning plan. But maybe the Iranian military has too many of them just now.
If you want more today, listen to this …
- If You're Listening: Donald Trump once warned against endless wars. Now, many are asking whether his posture toward Iran has hardened — not just rhetorically, but strategically. Matt Bevan explores whether Trump thinks he can flip a switch to stop the war in the Middle East.🎧
No comments:
Post a Comment