Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Observing how fast things keep changing during the pandemic, a senior Morrison government minister this week suggested to colleagues that it was unlikely voters would still be talking about the supply of rapid antigen tests when they went to the polls.
His point was that all sorts of new issues could have erupted by whenever the election is actually held, but it was also telling that he made the link.
The election seemed to loom just as large — if unmentioned — at Wednesday's prime ministerial press conference, which opened with an extraordinary 21-minute defensive monologue from Scott Morrison, who expressed his empathy for people's frustration with the way the summer had unfolded, and a long list of everything he and his government had done to deal with COVID.
"You've seen queues, you've seen rising
cases, you've seen pressures on hospital systems, you've seen
disruption of supply chains, you've seen shortages of tests, you've seen
all of these in all of these countries all around the world," he said,
repeatedly emphasising that it was happening to everyone and that, in
fact, Australia's record was better than most.
But as ever, there was no concession of fault, other than the observation that things could sometimes have been done better.
It would, of course, be completely unfair to blame our political leaders for a pandemic that is challenging everyone. And most people would understand that mistakes will inevitably be made.
It might occasionally help, though, if there was a little bit more honesty and humility on show. Yes, no-one knew Omicron was coming. But no, it is not reasonable for the Prime Minister to indignantly say that the criticisms of the government's failure to secure a rapid antigen test supply were made "with hindsight, not foresight".
There were plenty of warnings from everyone from the AMA to the unions last year. And the PM himself had announced a shift to the tests in August.
Waiting, waiting... still waiting
But the larger points in all of this are about how this pandemic has changed the mindsets of our politicians, as much as it has changed ours.
If you think about it, we have spent a lot of time in this pandemic waiting: Waiting for lockdowns to end; waiting for vaccines to be developed; waiting for vaccines to be delivered; waiting for borders to open; waiting for the peak in infections to pass; waiting for the economy to open up and take off again.
All of this waiting naturally carries with it some hope that things will change.
Labor's Jim Chalmers pointed out this week that the government had predicted five times since October 2020 that the economic recovery was about to start, most recently in last month's mid-year budget review (written before Omicron took off) which predicted a strong recovery in the wake of the Delta variant.
The government's optimism seemed reasonable enough at the time, and was usually matched by that of private sector economists.
But we are still waiting. And the government is now predicting (as are those same economists) that the economy will bounce back strongly once Omicron peaks and fades.
Similarly, the PM's promise that Australians would be rewarded for all their sacrifices by having a normal Christmas came to nought.
The finishing line and the celebrations keep being moved on us all. For politicians, that becomes a complex problem in expectation management.
That is all playing out in Western Australia just now, after Premier Mark McGowan announced the planned opening of the state on February 5 would be put off because of Omicron and insufficient vaccination rates in his state to deal with it.
It's not just that the day when everything gets better gets postponed that is a political problem. It's that growing sense that that day may never quite come; certainly, that removing restrictions — or any action of government — might not land us in a better place anyway.
Omicron is crippling health — and the economy
The PM — and others — last year started to use the mantra about governments getting out of people's faces. Particularly in NSW, there was an enthusiastic rush to remove restrictions which unfortunately coincided with the arrival of Omicron and just made things different and more comprehensive form of bad instead.
People were sick of waiting.
There was talk of living with COVID (without any clear understanding of what that might actually look like); of balancing health and economic outcomes — minimising pressure on hospitals while maximising economic activity.
It was telling that, in announcing his
decision on Friday, McGowan threw a new idea into the ring. "We know
that bad health outcomes lead to economic pain," he said.
And this is a reality that has been creeping up on us. Omicron has directly crippled so much of the economy because people are getting sick from it, whereas previously the economy was being crippled by attempts to stop people getting sick from it.
To a large extent, our leaders have lost what little control they previously had over events in the process.
With case numbers in her state now rivalling those of Victoria, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk bristled when she was asked by a journalist on Friday whether she regretted opening the state's borders.
"You were screaming at me to open the border," she said. "I find it ironic that you asked me that question."
So what do our politicians promise us in such uncertain times, and how do we judge them?
How voters are judging the government
The Prime Minister says that all his actions have been taken with a view to keeping us safe. But with COVID now so extensively spread in the population, that is a worthy ambition, but not a promise he can deliver.
The first major opinion poll for the year, run in the Nine newspapers earlier this week, a survey by Resolve, put Labor in the primary vote lead for the first time at 35 per cent (up three percentage points since November) and the Coalition at 34 per cent (down five).
On handling of the pandemic, the government's lead was cut to just 32 per cent to 28 per cent from 33-23 in November.
The problem now for the government is that voters will not just be judging them on whether it kept their health safe, but on whether their economic position has been imperilled by the disruption now being caused by COVID, and their perceptions of whether the government has given them the tools they need to get through these uncertain times.
A supply of rapid antigen tests — or a lack of one — is a rather standout example.
But it is not just the government's stubborn refusal to accept blame for a shortage of supplies, it is its refusal to take the issue on itself and look like it was trying to fix it, once the problem was identified, and its various changes to the rules under which people worked to ones which rely on those tests, without actually having the tests available.
So there may indeed be lots more developments in this complicated story of how a global pandemic plays out in Australia between now and the election.
But the story of rapid antigen tests — and how we all had to wait for them to be available — may not be one forgotten on polling day.
Laura Tingle is 7.30's chief political correspondent.
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