Saturday 1 April 2023

analysis: Donald Trump has become the first US president to face criminal charges. But he could still secure a second term.

Extract from ABC News 

ABC News Homepage

Donald Trump has become the first US president to face criminal charges. But he could still secure a second term.

Analysis

By North America bureau chief Jade Macmillan in New York
Posted 
Donald Trump lays his hand over his chest
Even with criminal charges looming, Donald Trump is still running for president in 2024. (AP: Evan Vucci)

'Unprecedented' is a word that gets used all too often in relation to Donald Trump.

The only US president to have been impeached twice, and to have been the subject of a congressional criminal referral, has made history yet again after being indicted in New York.

In comparison to the other investigations Mr Trump is facing, including into the January 6 Capitol riot and his handling of classified documents, allegations about hush money payments to a porn star may seem relatively trivial.

Two women fly an American flag and a Trump flag in a carpark
The former president's supporters stood outside his estate in Florida once the indictment was announced. (AP: Rebecca Blackwell)

But this is the first time a former president has ever faced criminal charges and the consequences — to use another term so often associated with him — are unpredictable.

Mr Trump is not only a former president, but a declared candidate seeking a second term in office, meaning the political ramifications of the indictment are enormous.

And yet, this case is not expected to stop him from pressing on with his bid to return to the White House.

Authorities brace for unrest

The decision of a Manhattan grand jury to indict Mr Trump triggers an extraordinary period in US political history.

The announcement appears to have taken his legal team by surprise, after some US media outlets had predicted it wouldn’t happen until early April, if at all.

Mr Trump's lawyer, Joe Tacopina, said the former president's first reaction was one of shock.

"He's not worried at all. I mean, he's upset, angry," Mr Tacopina told CBS News.

"He is being persecuted politically, that it clear."

The former president is expected to surrender to New York authorities on Tuesday local time, a process likely to involve having his fingerprints and mug shot taken.

However, Mr Tacopina said Mr Trump would not be placed in handcuffs.

He will then make an initial court appearance, known as an arraignment, when he will be asked to enter a plea.

The indictment is sealed, meaning it's not yet clear exactly which offences he is alleged to have committed.

But District Attorney Alvin Bragg is known to have been investigating whether Mr Trump broke New York state law in relation to an alleged hush money payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels in 2016.

Stormy Daniels and her attorney Michael Avenatti leave federal court in New York.
The indictment is still sealed, but it's believed the case relates to a payment made to Stormy Daniels in 2016. (AP: Seth Wenig)

Ms Daniels claims she had sex with Mr Trump while he was married in 2006 — an allegation he denies.

He has also denied any wrongdoing over the payment and has described the indictment as "political persecution and election interference".

"Never before in our nation's history has this been done," he said in a statement.

"The Democrats have cheated countless times over the decades, including spying on my campaign, but weaponising our justice system to punish a political opponent, who just so happens to be a president of the United States and by far the leading Republican candidate for president, has never happened before. Ever."

Unlike when he falsely predicted that he would be "arrested" on Tuesday, March 21, or in other social media posts since then, the former president did not use his statement to call for protests or to warn of "potential death or destruction" if he was charged.

Three NYPD officers standing outside a Manhattan building at night
Proceedings at the Manhattan court have occurred in the midst of extremely tight security. (AP: Yuki Iwamura)

But in the wake of the January 6 attack, when his supporters stormed the US Capitol, authorities in New York and Washington are on high alert.

Far-right Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene is among those already promising to protest on Tuesday.

Barriers set up outside the Manhattan court complex last week are still in place in case of demonstrations.

And the people of the United States remain as divided as ever over the former president, and his legal problems.

Trump builds war chest for battle ahead

Mr Trump now faces the extraordinary prospect of running a campaign between court appearances.

He had already insisted he would not drop out of the race for the Republican nomination if he were indicted.

Now, he is trying to turn the situation to his advantage.

A steady stream of donation requests ramped up in the hours after news broke of Mr Trump's indictment, with one email urging his supporters to spend $US47 (roughly $70) on a T-shirt stamped with yesterday's date and the message "I stand with Trump".

Other Republicans, including those seen as possible challengers for the party's 2024 nomination, have also felt compelled to again jump to the former president's defence.

His former vice-president, Mike Pence, described the indictment as an "outrage", while declared candidate Nikki Haley reiterated her previous comment that it was "more about revenge than it is about justice".

Mr Trump's biggest potential rival, Ron DeSantis, weighed in by saying he would not sign an extradition request forcing Mr Trump to travel from his Florida home to New York, in the unlikely event he did not surrender.

Ron DeSantis gesticulates in front of an American flag
Ron DeSantis blasted the indictment and vowed he "will not assist in the extradition", though it is unlikely to come to that. (AP: John Bazemore)

"The weaponization of the legal system to advance a political agenda turns the rule of law on its head," the Florida governor said on Twitter.

"It is un-American."

Historic indictment heralds 2024 chaos

While the New York indictment is historic, Donald Trump still faces the threat of other possible charges stemming from several ongoing investigations.

Those include the Department of Justice's probes into his role in January 6 and his handling of classified documents, as well as an inquiry in Georgia into allegations of election interference.

He has labelled all the inquiries political witch hunts, and many of his loyal supporters have echoed the critique.

"This is an attack on our country the likes of which has never been seen before," the former president said of the New York case on his social media platform, Truth Social.

"The USA is now a third world nation, a nation in serious decline. So sad!"

Even if Mr Trump is convicted in Manhattan, there is nothing in the US constitution to legally prevent him from running for president again or returning to the White House.

And at this stage, he is still considered to be the leading Republican candidate.

While a campaign run from a courthouse may play well politically with some, practically, how would it work if he won the nomination?

No one really knows.

Mr Trump captured the White House in 2016 by promising an end to politics as usual.

His indictment has plunged the US into truly uncharted territory, just over 18 months out from another presidential contest.

The chaos of the next few days could be just a taste of what's ahead

Donald Trump stands holding his belt buckle while in front of a US flag
There is no law preventing Donald Trump for running for president, even if he is under investigation or in jail. (Reuters: Carlos Barria)

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