Extract from ABC News
Global temperatures are set to break records in the next five years, with a 98 per cent chance one will be the warmest ever recorded, according to a new report from the UN's meteorological agency.
Key points:
- The WMO report predicts that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record
- An El Niño pattern is likely to develop over the coming months, bringing warmer temperatures
- Australian climate scientists have warned of an increased bushfire risk and the potential destruction of the Great Barrier Reef
The report, released by the World Meteorological Organization, said the weather phenomenon El Niño is likely to combine with climate change to fuel the global temperature increase.
Arctic heating is also predicted to be more than three times what the global average is, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update report.
It has prompted climate scientists in Australia to warn of an increased bushfire risk and the potential destruction of the Great Barrier Reef.
The report said there will be a 66 per cent likelihood that between 2023 and 2027 the annual average near-surface global temperature will be more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
"There is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record," the report stated.
The current hottest year on record was set in 2016, when an exceptionally strong El Niño pattern helped drive up temperatures globally.
The WMO said that in 2022 the average global temperature was about 1.15C above the 1850-1900 average, with La Niña conditions over the past three years temporarily curtailing the trend of longer-term warming.
The 1850-1900 average is used as a baseline as it was before greenhouse gas emissions from industry and humans.
But with La Niña ending in March this year, there is a prediction that El Niño will develop over the next few months, which would typically mean an increase in global temperatures the following year after it develops, which would be 2024.
WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said while the report does not mean the planet will permanently exceed the 1.5C long-term warming level set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, it would have far-reaching repercussions for food security, water management and the environment.
"… (the) WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency," he said.
"A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
"This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment.
"We need to be prepared."
The report has been published ahead of the World Meteorological Congress next week in Geneva, Switzerland.
Reef at risk and bushfire threat increased
Dr Kimberley Reid, a climate scientist with Monash University, said she fears a desensitisation to the number of record-breaking events would mean the end of the Great Barrier Reef as we know it.
"In order for one of the next five years to not be record-breaking, we would either need: no El Niño events in the next five years or a massive volcanic eruption in the tropics, à la Krakatoa in 1883, both of which are extremely unlikely scenarios," she said.
"My biggest fear is that we become desensitised to the ever-falling records and forget what these numbers actually mean. 1.5 degrees warming means the Great Barrier Reef probably won't survive this century.
"That's tragic."
Dr Hamish Clarke, a research fellow in future fire risk at the University of Melbourne, warned the continuing rise of global temperatures could see a repeat of the 2019-2020 bushfire season, or even worse fire events.
"When it comes to bushfire risk, the news that there is a 98 per cent chance of setting a new global temperature record in the next five years is extremely worrying," he said.
"High temperatures are one of the key ingredients for dangerous fire weather, along with dry and windy conditions."
He said as temperatures continue to rise, there is more chance of them coinciding with droughts and extended dry spells.
"If we continue on our current path there is a real possibility of a repeat – or worse – of the conditions that led to the devastating Black Summer fires of 2019-20," Dr Clarke said.
"There is still time to avoid the worst climate change projections but it means taking much more action than we currently are."
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