Extract from ABC News
One of Ukraine's top generals has warned Russian forces they will come to "envy the dead" when his troops try and punch through their fortifications in the much-anticipated counteroffensive.
In a rare interview, Brigadier-General Sergii Melnyk told the ABC, it will not be long before the full-scale operation to liberate Ukrainian territory begins.
"I can say one thing. It will take place in the near future, and it will be a very powerful special operation that will definitely lead to the defeat of the Russian Federation," he said.
It was widely believed the counteroffensive would begin in the European spring — next week marks the start of summer.
Ukraine says it is waiting for the right moment — when the weather is good, the ground is firm and its armed forces are ready to use equipment sent by Western allies.
General Melnyk, who is the head of the Defence Forces in Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, insists his troops are battle-hardened and ready to go.
When asked what Russian forces would be facing when the counteroffensive began, he delivered a characteristically blunt assessment.
"A very deadly and heavy defeat awaits them. I can say frankly that this is not the army of the Russian Federation, the occupier today acts like a terrorist who kills the civilian population," General Melnyk said.
"These terrorists have absolutely no feeling for the captured armed forces of Ukraine. They can abuse, kill, cut off heads, and so they should definitely not expect any mercy from us.
"And the hell they will go through, probably those who remain alive, they will envy the dead."
General Melnyk said he had the utmost faith in Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces General Valerii Zaluzhnyi who has planned the coming counteroffensive.
"Everything that Valerii plans happens and goes very clearly and according to plan. For example, the counteroffensive of the Kharkiv Region," he said.
It's in that push where Ukraine regained around 10,000 square kilometres in the month of September alone.
Since then, fighting has slowed.
Much of this year has been defined by a World War I-style battle in the strategically unimportant city of Bakhmut in Eastern Ukraine.
This week, Wagner mercenaries claimed it had seized the city, which had been practically wiped out over the past six months.
Kyiv denies it has been defeated and claims it continues counterattacks and is encircling Russian forces in the heights around Bakhmut.
Many experts believe Ukraine was willing to continue the slow grinding battle for Bakhmut — even if it lost many of its soldiers — in a bid to wear down the Russian forces.
The Wagner Group said 20,000 of its soldiers were killed in the battle.
Throughout the war, Ukraine's top brass have kept their cards close to their chest when they have needed to and have resisted outside pressure.
General Melnyk makes it clear the time and place for the counteroffensive will remain a secret and will be calculated and executed on Ukraine's terms.
"This information that is currently circulating, that the counteroffensive will be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, on certain participants — believe me, this is not something to talk about.
"The counterattack will be where it is planned. No-one knows where it is planned," he said.
That information might be tightly held inside the Ukrainian military's inner circle, but strategists point towards some key lines of attack that Ukraine could be considering.
Where is Ukraine likely to attack?
Ben Hodges is a retired Lieutenant General in the US Army who is now a senior adviser with Human Rights First.
He led US forces in Europe between 2014 and 2017 and has been following the war closely.
He said the Ukrainians had been "superb at protecting information".
General Hodges told the ABC that in military terms, Ukraine is at the "shaping" phase of its counteroffensive.
"You're shaping, setting the conditions out there. So, attacking fuel storage, attacking ammunition storage, going after the headquarters to blind the Russian forces," he said.
"You don't want to telegraph too early exactly where your main effort is.
"I think you can imagine there are a lot of activities that are going on that are designed to find those weaknesses, but also to deceive where they really want to launch their main attack."
General Hodges expects the counteroffensive will lead to further action around Bakhmut, and a push to regain the territory surrounding the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia to avoid any potential catastrophe.
He said his best guess was that the operation will push to the south to the Azov Sea in the hope of cutting off Russian supply lines.
"I would expect that the main effort will be at that land bridge. So probably somewhere between Mariupol and Melitopol. That's where I would imagine, which means they've got to get across the Dnipro River," General Hodges said.
"The Russians, of course, know that this is coming somewhere, somehow.
"But just like in June 1944, the German Wehrmacht knew the Allies were coming, but they didn't know where. They didn't know when. They didn't know exactly how."
General Hodges hopes that by cutting off the so-called land bridge, Ukraine could then target Crimea, which was illegally annexed by President Putin in 2014.
"I think Ukraine's counteroffensive will really be aimed at the liberation of Crimea because Crimea is the decisive terrain. To do that you have to isolate it so then you can bring up more long-range precision weapons," he said.
Alexander Khara, a fellow at Ukraine's Centre for Defence Strategies told the ABC regaining Crimea should be part of Ukraine's ambitions in the counteroffensive.
"The Russians are not capable of sustaining this territory, especially with the support of the United Kingdom and France with long-range missiles," he said.
"We can box the Russians in Crimea, cutting supplies from the mainland, the Kerch bridge and targeting the ferry connection in Kerch."
General Hodges said no matter what Ukraine had planned, there would be a few surprises.
"I am sure when this is all over, I will probably say, 'Wow, I didn't even think of that'.
"I mean, the Ukrainians are so clever. They're going to do some things that old people like me would have never thought about."
Russia digging in
If Ukraine is to cut the so-called land bridge, split Russian forces in two and try to isolate Crimea, it will most likely have to forge a path from Zaporizhzhia where the front lines are the most heavily fortified by Russia.
For months Russian engineers and troops have been working on these positions, setting up anti-tank ditches and "dragon's teeth", digging trenches and laying mines.
However, General Hodges said these defensive positions did not pose insurmountable problems.
"Those trenches, I look at the pictures and the video, almost none of them have overhead cover. So, they're basically open ditches," he said.
"I would not want to be a Russian private sitting in one of these open trenches waiting for the Ukrainians to attack. You're going to get killed.
"And mines and dragon's teeth are only an obstacle if you've got people there that are covering them. Otherwise, you just come up there and clear them."
While Mr Khara is optimistic his country can deal with whatever Russia throws at it, he is concerned that the counteroffensive has been over-hyped, before it has even begun.
"I am worrying a bit that we have overheated expectations on our military and political leadership," he said.
"Even though we are much better situation now with the great support of our Western partners, if we are talking about numbers, the Russians outnumber and outgun us."
Mr Khara is concerned if only modest gains are achieved — and if Donald Trump wins the US presidency in 2024 — the supply of Western weapons may dry up and pressure could intensify for a diplomatic solution — something Ukraine does not want.
"We understand the only way Russians can negotiate with us or we can negotiate with them is on the battlefield. We cannot talk to them because their words are not trustworthy," he said.
"They violated everything from the Budapest Memorandum, the Friendship and Partnership Agreement … to the UN Charter."
Russia wants to retain the territory it has seized and its strategy appears to be to outlast Western will and to draw on its large population to replenish its forces and ultimately grind down the Ukrainians.
The war comes home to Russia
It has been an unusual week in the war.
One that has seen attacks in Belgorod supposedly committed by anti-Kremlin Russian militants based in Ukraine sneaking over the border and creating havoc.
It was a reminder of Russia's defensive frailties and that Putin's war is not without consequences for Russia's civilian population.
The cross-border raids could pose a problem for Ukraine.
The West has been explicit that their aid has been sent to defend Ukraine, not attack Russia.
Kyiv denies any involvement, saying it is anti-Kremlin militants, but some of the vehicles used in the assault appeared to be American personnel carriers.
Earlier in the week, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine Major-General Kyrylo Budanov recorded a message for Russian soldiers urging them to surrender now, because "it's going to get even worse" when the counteroffensive begins.
Brigadier-General Melnyk agreed Russian troops should reconsider the last offer to wave the white flag.
"Prior to this, we suggested to the Russian army, in principle, not to fight against Ukraine, but to surrender by any means possible," he said.
"If they did not carry out any terrorist or murderous operations, the article of the criminal law would be the least lenient for them."
As he readies for battle, Brigadier-General Melnyk stressed morale and motivation matched with Western weapons and the innovative practices of the Ukrainian armed forces would help his country triumph.
"We are less in number, maybe 10 or 20 times than the Russian Federation, but we fight with intelligence and skills," he said.
"We are trying to liberate territories so that civilians are not harmed, in order to preserve the infrastructure of cities, even those that are under occupation.
"And we try and do that and kick them out of these neighbourhoods."
He has some final words for the Russian soldiers digging in near the front lines.
"Those who came to our land, if they do not jump over the ledge of the state border in the near future, they will remain to rot in our land," Brigadier-General Melnyk said.
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