Contemporary politics,local and international current affairs, science, music and extracts from the Queensland Newspaper "THE WORKER" documenting the proud history of the Labour Movement.
MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
Mon 31 Jul 2023 01.00 AESTLast modified on Mon 31 Jul 2023 07.27 AESTElectric
vehicles are becoming increasingly popular among Australians, with
sales during the first half of 2023 already eclipsing last year’s annual
total, though the industry has warned a federal policy vacuum continues
to harm consumer choice.
The Electric Vehicle
Council has also singled out the Victorian government as having “the
world’s worst” approach to taxing EV ownership in its report on the
state of the industry to be released on Monday.
From
January to June this year, 8.4% of new car sales in Australia were
electric. In 2022, just 3.8% of new vehicle sales were electric.
The
46,624 EVs sold in the first six months of the year take the number of
EVs on Australian roads to roughly 130,000 – made up of about 109,000
battery powered cars and 21,000 hybrids – according to estimates from
the Electric Vehicle Council.
However, uptake
has varied considerably between regions. EV sales have been strongest in
the Australian Capital Territory, where 21.8% of new cars sold so far
this year were electric, followed by 9% in New South Wales and Tasmania,
8.5% in Victoria, 7.7% in Queensland, 7.5% in Western Australia, 6.5%
in South Australia and 2.4% in the Northern Territory.
Market
share is also heavily limited. Just three vehicles – Tesla’s Model Y
and Model 3, and the BYD Atto 3 – account for more than 68% of the
market in Australia. While there are 91 different electric cars, vans
and utes on the market in Australia, most have very limited supply.
Every new electric car often sells out within
hours of coming on to the market, Behyad Jafari, the Electric Vehicle
Council’s chief executive, said.
He estimated
demand for EVs was double the actual sales figures, but consumers
frequently placed orders that went unfulfilled and ultimately opted for a
standard car instead due to the wait.
Jafari said the lack of supply of EVs was a direct result of Australia’s lack of a new fuel-efficiency standard.
Fuel-efficiency
standards set by governments limit emissions from cars by creating a
cap of carbon emissions across a manufacturer’s overall sales. This
provides an incentive for manufacturers to supply low and zero-emissions
vehicles and penalises companies that fail to do so.
As
more right-hand drive countries, such as Thailand, introduce a
standard, manufacturers are diverting more EVs away from the Australian
market so as to not miss out on incentives, Jafari said.
“Carmakers
are essentially rewarded for sending their EVs to markets other than
Australia. So [it’s] small wonder we remain at the back of the queue,”
Jafari said.
As a result, Jafari said supply of cheaper EVs is particularly dire.
“If
you want to buy a Tesla, fantastic, there’s more of them available here
and Australians are buying them hand over fist, and that’s partly
because they have higher margins on sales. It’s the more affordable
options that, without incentives from a fuel-efficiency standard,
manufacturers aren’t sending here.”
He
gave the example of cheaper Hyundai EV models, noting that 30,000
orders were placed last year, but only 700 were sent to Australia by the
manufacturer.
The Electric Vehicle council
also rated each state and territory’s various policies towards EVs,
including taxes, industry assistance and initiatives to help uptake
across cars, trucks and buses. NSW and the ACT received the top ratings
of 9/10, while the Northern Territory and Tasmania were rated lowest at
4/10.
However the council savaged the Victorian
government’s recent policy changes that it said were disincentivising
the uptake of EVs.
A controversial road user
tax introduced in 2021 that makes electric vehicle drivers record and
pay for every kilometre they travel – up to 2.8 cents this financial
year – has been blamed for discouraging Victorians from embracing EVs.
Motorists launched a legal challenge against the tax, which is being considered by the high court.
“Ultimately
this approach, in addition to already having the world’s worst EV
policy with respect to taxing EVs, risks jeopardising Victoria’s ability
to achieve its own emission reduction targets,” the Electric Vehicle
Council’s report said.
A Victorian government
spokesperson said: “The zero and low-emission vehicle distance-based
charge ensures all road users pay their fair share towards the cost of
maintaining the road network.
“We’ve laid the groundwork to achieve our target of 50% of all light vehicle sales being ZEVs by 2030.”
Video captures the moment a drone hits a Moscow building causing a large explosion.
Link copied
Three
Ukrainian drones have attacked Moscow in the early hours on Sunday,
Russian authorities said, injuring one person and prompting a temporary
closure of traffic in and out of one of four airports around the Russian
capital.
Key points:
The Russian Defence Ministry referred to the incident as an "attempted terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime"
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the attack "insignificantly damaged" the outsides of two buildings in the Moscow city district
A spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force said the Russian people were seeing the consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Sunday that "war" was coming to Russia after the attack.
"Gradually,
the war is returning to the territory of Russia — to its symbolic
centres and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and
absolutely fair process," Mr Zelenskyy said on a visit to the western
city of Ivano-Frankivsk.
It was
the fourth such attempt at a strike on the capital region this month
and the third in a week, fuelling concerns about Moscow's vulnerability
to attacks as Russia's war in Ukraine drags into its 18th month.
The
Russian Defence Ministry referred to the incident as an "attempted
terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime" and said three drones targeted the
city.
One was shot down in the
surrounding Moscow region by air defence systems and two others were
jammed. Those two crashed into the Moscow business district.
Photos from the site of the crash showed the facade of a skyscraper damaged on one floor.
Moscow
Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the attack "insignificantly damaged" the
outsides of two buildings in the Moscow City district.
A security guard was injured, Russia's state news agency Tass reported, citing emergency officials.
The area, several miles from the Kremlin, is known for its modern high-rise towers.
One
of the buildings damaged was home to three Russian government
ministries as well as residential apartments, Russian media reported.
It was the fourth such attempt at a strike on the capital region this month and the third this week.(AP Photo )
No
flights went into or out of Vnukovo airport on the southern outskirts
of the city for about an hour, according to Tass, and the airspace over
Moscow and the outlying regions was temporarily closed to all aircraft.
Those restrictions have since been lifted.
Moscow authorities have also closed a street to traffic near the site of the crash in the Moscow City area.
Without
directly acknowledging that Ukraine was behind the attack on Moscow, a
spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force said that the Russian people
were seeing the consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine.
A view of the damaged skyscraper is shown in the "Moscow City" business district after the reported strike. (AP Photo)
"All
of the people who think the war 'doesn't concern them,' it's already
touching them," spokesperson Yurii Ihnat told journalists on Sunday.
"There's already a certain mood in Russia: that something is flying in, and loudly," he said.
"There's no discussion of peace or calm in the Russian interior any more. They got what they wanted."
Mr Ihnat also referenced a drone attack on Russian-occupied Crimea overnight.
Moscow
announced on Sunday that it had shot down 16 Ukrainian drones and
neutralised eight more with an electronic jamming system. There were no
casualties, officials said.
In
Ukraine, the air force reported that it had destroyed four Russian
drones above the country's Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Information on the attacks could not be independently verified.
Shiny stone benchtops are not a necessity and too many of our tradies who work with them are getting sick or dying.(Supplied: iStock photo, EJ-J)
Link copied
As
calls to ban engineered stone kitchen benchtops grow louder, a
surveillance program in NSW is estimated to have missed a staggering 200
workers who have developed the crippling work-related lung disease
silicosis but have not been diagnosed.
The
figures, calculated by respiratory physician of 30 years, Professor
Deborah Yates and occupational hygienists Kate Cole and Maggie Davidson,
were published on Friday in response to a recent study by Monash
University that found one in four stonemasons in Victoria who worked
with artificial stone benchtops developed silicosis. It is a similar
figure to a survey undertaken in Queensland.
Yates
says they attempted to calculate the rough number of workers who were
likely to have been missed using the current surveillance system in NSW,
which only requires workers to get chest X-rays, which aren't as
accurate as CT scans.
But
the actual number of workers who have silicosis in NSW and Australia
more broadly is unknown due to a lack of comprehensive and coordinated
screening.
It means the number of workers who have died from silicosis in Australia is also unknown.
For
instance, illegal workers exposed to silica dust may have symptoms but
don't get treatment because they are scared of being deported.
Yates
says some patients have told her the workplace conditions breach all
the rules but they are too scared to come forward for fear of losing
their job. She says some come in for treatment when they are in the late
stages of silicosis, but some don't return.
There
is also an issue with communication. A third of workers who work with
engineered stone in NSW don't speak English as a first language. The
culturally and linguistically diverse workforce are often the most
vulnerable in our community.
Safe Work to explore ban on engineered stone.
Deadly dust
Silicosis
is a work-related disease that is entirely preventable. But it is on
the rise due to weak regulation, a failure of the lawmakers to make
uniform reforms across the states, operators putting profits before
safety and workers not understanding that the shiny kitchen benchtops
they cut and grind and install contain high levels of silica — up to 95
per cent. That dust can be deadly when inhaled and then become embedded
into the lungs.
In Victoria and
Queensland, there are at least 80 legal cases, pending or filed, while
dozens have been filed or are pending in NSW.
Some
cases target the employers, often small fabricator outfits, as well as
the manufacturers, which include Caesarstone, which pioneered engineered
stone slabs for benchtops in 1987 and started importing them to
Australia in the late 1990s, without proper warning stickers.
Caesarstone's
latest annual report details 56 pending lawsuits in Australia relating
to silicosis claims, up from 38 in the previous year.
The dust from cutting and grinding can be deadly when inhaled.(ABC News)
Waiting for action
What
is shocking about silicosis and the slowness of authorities to crack
down is that the first known death in Australia was back in 2019 when
36-year-old stonemason Anthony White died. It shocked politicians into
promising immediate action to sort out the industry.
Weeks
after Mr White died the government created the National Dust Disease
Taskforce to develop an approach to the control and management of dust
diseases including silicosis.
The
report, released in 2021, recommended that "further decisive action is
required to better protect workers in dust-generating industries and to
support affected workers and their families".
A
national register is set to be rolled out this year — four years after
the first death — and air monitoring in workplaces that use engineered
stone is still not required.
As
the numbers continued to rise, and calls grew louder to ban the product
after a series of media investigations earlier this year, along with a
mounting campaign by unions including the CFMEU and the ACTU, state and
federal governments asked Safe Work Australia to investigate the
feasibility of banning or licensing artificial stone.
It
was told to look at three options: an outright ban, a ban on products
with more than 40 per cent silica, or a ban on products that contain
more than 40 per cent silica and introduce a licensing regime as well.
It
is worth noting that the 40 per cent level of silica, which is almost
half the current levels found in engineered stone, still causes
significant disease.
A dark reality
Six
months on, speculation is rife that the report is imminent and will be
handed to the state and federal governments for discussion before being
made public.
It means between
now and then lobbying will go into overdrive to influence the final
outcome. Many of the submissions to SafeWork were anonymous, asking it
not to pursue a ban as jobs would be lost.
Whatever
the decision, the reality is these shiny stone benchtops are not a
necessity and too many of our tradies who work with them are getting
sick or dying. There are alternative materials including wood, marble,
porcelain, steel and so on.
The
brutal reality is that in factories and worksites around the country,
where cutting and grinding takes place, many outlets are failing to
offer their workers safe work practices.
In
NSW, a series of documents released to parliament earlier this year
under standing order 52 showed a failure to keep proper checks on
operators, despite SafeWork NSW believing it has done a good job and
made silica compliance a priority since 2017.
Scratch
the surface and while the safety regulator may have increased the
number of breaches or improvement notices served up to companies, there
is little evidence it changed employer behaviours.
For
instance, one company was given multiple improvement notices — a notice
that allows a business to continue operating while it addresses the
contraventions — despite the regulator finding an unsafe workplace
including workers not wearing proper protective equipment, no training
or health monitoring and evidence of silica dust everywhere including
the toilet.
Two years later,
the regulator inspected the factory and found conditions hadn't changed.
It was fined $3600. Two years after that, workers were diagnosed with
silicosis. The regulator returned for another inspection and found
further breaches.
Maurice
Blackburn partner Jonathan Walsh says cases of silicosis continue to
flood in and he believes we are now at a point of saying regulatory
interventions have failed to reduce diagnoses.
He
is in the school of thought that a ban is the only meaningful way to
prevent deaths. "I don't believe a ban on engineered stone will lead to
the decimation of the industry," he says.
The
ball is now in state and federal government courts to determine the
best plan of attack: ban or not ban. It is a choice between life and
death.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proved a curse for Russia.(Reuters: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service)
Link copied
Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Anthony Albanese? That was our choice.
As a group of Australian journalists we were standing in the centre of Vilnius waiting for Prime Minister Albanese. He'd spent the day at the NATO conference and this would be his daily briefing with the travelling media.
But
then a dilemma. There was a concert just down the road and word had
gone around that the Ukrainian leader may show up at what was called
Lenin Square when the Soviet Union ruled this small, enchanting country.
Hundreds of people were already at the venue but we noticed that hundreds more began rushing towards the square.
Something
was definitely happening. We still had about 30 minutes before the PM
was due to appear, so a huddle of the press pack led to a decision:
President Zelenskyy may not turn up but the chance to see him in action
was worth the try.
The only danger was that the Australian PM would walk across half an hour early to find a sole camera operator holding the fort.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shakes hands with Australian Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese before a meeting at the NATO summit in
Vilnius on July 12, 2023.(Ukrainian Presidential Press Service via Reuters)
As we arrived we heard the next guest being introduced: "President Volodymyr Zelenskyy!"
Children
were on parents' shoulders, people were filming with their phones and
we heard the unmistakeable booming voice of the Ukrainian leader.
For
about 20 minutes he roused the crowd. What struck me was his complete
lack of fear – this man would almost certainly be one of the highest
targets in the world for an assassination.
Seeing him in person reinforced his power as an orator. He obviously trades on this both inside Ukraine and when he travels.
Zelenskyy
has proved a curse for Russia. He has unified his country's 44 million
people at the same time as travelling from Saudi Arabia to Italy,
Germany to Turkey, with his shopping list of weapons.
So
what is the "Zelenskyy factor"? How good a military strategist is he?
And to what extent has he held the Ukrainian side together?
I asked four experts who observe Volodymyr Zelenskyy as closely as anybody and who focus on Ukraine and Russia.
Peter Tesch
Peter
Tesch is a former Australian ambassador to Moscow and a former deputy
secretary for strategy, policy and industry in the Department of Defence
Australian Ambassador to Russia Peter Tesch leaves the Russian foreign ministry building in Moscow, Russia March 30, 2018.(Reuters: Maxim Shemetov)
How do you assess the performance of Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
He
is consistently a very impressive figure. Initially seen by some as an
unlikely figurehead, he has proven himself since February 2022 to be a
resilient, tough and inspiring leader who commands respect and support
at home and abroad. He has shown personal courage, including visiting
the front lines. He has remained grounded and connected with his people
and his soldiers. The contrast with Putin — an aloof denizen of bunkers
and gilded halls — could not be starker.
President Zelenskyy joined the recent NATO summit on the sidelines as leaders mulled Ukraine's future in the alliance.(AP: Pavel Golovkin)
How do you compare the ways that Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have conducted themselves internationally?
Look
at the UN voting results. Although I would like to see stronger support
for Ukraine from outside the usual blocs, Zelenskyy clearly has the
upper hand in the public opinion campaign. Putin unequivocally is the
aggressor. Nothing he says is credible. Through its unprovoked
aggression, Russia has trashed international law and debased its status
as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and as an architect and
guarantor of the system of international security.
It
has shown that its solemn guarantees — in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum —
to respect Ukraine's sovereignty, political independence and existing
borders, were worthless. Bizarrely, the Kremlin has tried to paint its
illegal actions and violence in Ukraine as solidarity with developing
nations against "neo-colonialism".
Is it possible to say at this point how history will remember him – or does that all depend on the outcome of the war?
I
remain optimistic that Ukraine will prevail even over the long term.
Zelenskyy will be seen as a man who confounded his critics and rose to
the immense task of rallying a nation and the international community to
assert right over wrong.
Mick Ryan
Mick
Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major
general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a
strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff
Having seen him up close, how would you describe Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
He
is actually shorter physically than I expected. But you soon forget
that. He is energetic, funny and entirely focused on you when he speaks
to you.
How important has he been in securing military support from other countries?
His
speeches have become a key part of this effort, as has the very
well-coordinated diplomatic and strategic influence efforts undertaken
by the Ukrainian government. The Ukrainian ambassadors around the world,
as well as the diaspora community, have been very important.
As a military man, do you regard him as a smart military strategist?
He
has demonstrated the ability to listen to his military advisers and
make carefully calibrated decisions that incorporate this advice as well
as political imperatives. He is a very strategic leader who includes
military, diplomatic, economic, human and informational imperatives in
his decision making.
What are the major military or strategic mistakes that Russia has made?
Russia's
key mistakes have been strategic. They assumed Ukraine would fold
quickly, that its people would welcome the Russians as liberators, that
the Ukrainian government would flee and that the West would not
intervene. These are the original sins of Russian strategy and they
drove every mistake at the operational and tactical levels early in the
war.
What have been the smartest military decisions Russia has taken?
While
Russia may not have received much external support in a physical sense,
it has done a good job of ensuring the global south does not get
involved in the war. Also, Russia's nuclear sabre rattling, from their
perspective, has been successful. NATO has not intervened physically in
the war and there has been no escalation to other areas.
Who are Zelenskyy's closest advisers?
There
are strategic, political and personal advisors, and I could not provide
a full list. However, people like General Zaluzhny, as well as his
defence minister, foreign minister and national security advisor are
quite important.
In the two
years before the war, Zelenskyy was seen by some as failing to get his
head around detail. Do you think he'll be considered a leader who rose
to the occasion?
While the
ultimate outcome of the war remains to be seen, Zelenskyy is already
being favourably compared with Winston Churchill and his leadership from
1940 onwards. This is fair, although Zelenskyy's job is even harder.
There were no Germans in Britain raping, pillaging and murdering his
citizens when he came to power in 1940.
Zelenskyy,
who is not part of any Western alliance system, has had to unify his
nation, defend against a large invasion force, balance a range of
competing national priorities (defence, the economy, civil defence,
displaced population) while also seeking massive amounts of foreign
military, economic, humanitarian and intelligence aid.
Matthew Sussex
Dr Matthew Sussex is Associate Professor (Adjunct) at the Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University
Dr Matthew Sussex is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Defence Research at the Australian Defence College.(Supplied: ANU)
How would you assess President Zelenskyy's importance to Ukraine's war effort?
He's
been crucial to leveraging international support for Ukraine in a way
that, prior to the Russian invasion, certainly wasn't expected
internationally, and probably wasn't expected domestically either.
I
think he's come to personify Ukrainian resistance, both at home and
abroad. He's also particularly active, visiting frontline troops in
person, and visible at the scene of some of the Russian military's most
egregious crimes – from Bucha and the sites of other massacres, to a
flooded Kherson.
In contrast,
Putin has cultivated a sense of detachment from the conflict, especially
when it has become necessary to pin the blame for failure on others.
For
Ukraine at least, this one is as much a war of narratives as it is of
military conquest and defence. And whereas the Russian narrative about
causes and progress has shifted markedly, it's instructive that the
Ukrainian one has remained the same.
The
fact that Zelenskyy remains on message while Putin lurches more and
more towards the fantastical is a powerful indication of how the war is
progressing for both sides — not to mention how their relative success
and failure is perceived.
Vladimir Putin has underestimated the desire of Ukrainians to resist, and the willingness of other nations to help Zelenskyy.(Sputnik/Kremlin: Alexander Kazakov, via Reuters)
How important has Zelenskyy's profile been to securing support?
Extremely
important. I hesitate to use the term "cult of personality" given that
it tends to be associated with rather more authoritarian regimes, but I
think Western publics particularly have taken to Zelenskyy in a way that
I haven't seen for a long time. In my view that's because they see him
as plainly spoken, determined and ultimately authentic – in
contradistinction to their own carefully curated sloganeering
politicians.
So Zelenskyy is
creating two types of pressure on western governments to act: the moral
argument that Ukraine is struggling against imperial aggression and the
more pragmatic incentive that there is clearly domestic political
capital in giving him what he wants.
Do you think for an international audience the war has been personified as Putin v Zelenskyy?
Certainly,
although I think Putin has gone to great lengths to avoid that
perception in Russia, where failure is blamed on internal scapegoats and
the evil external machinations of the West – but never the tsar. A
common tactic in authoritarian regimes, of course.
Zelenskyy
has also changed the way he engages internationally. At first, he
remained close to home as the leader of a beleaguered nation ("I need
ammunition, not a ride"). More recently he's travelled much more
extensively. It's a clever gambit that projects confidence, assurance
and shows how broad his international support network is.
Do you think Putin underestimated Zelenskyy?
Most
definitely. But he's also underestimated the desire of Ukrainians to
resist, and the willingness of other nations to help him. By foolishly
believing that Ukrainians would welcome the invasion, his actions have
probably been the most powerful factor in mobilising Ukrainian
collective identity and national sense of self since the collapse of the
USSR.
But most recently it's
also been interesting to note a bit of a shift in Putin's rhetoric. He
now seems to acknowledge that the Ukrainian armed forces are much
stronger than the way they were initially portrayed, and gave a lengthy
list of equipment shortages in the Russian military that needed to be
addressed by ramping up production.
Many
Ukrainians say that before the Russian invasion, Zelenskyy was not into
detail but a 'big picture' person. Do you think, given the nature of
war, he must have had to get into the detail?
Of
course. Wars require it, and most wartime leaders get drawn into that.
Churchill was obsessed with minute detail, for instance, and often drove
his advisors mad with new schemes. Ultimately as the overall captain of
the ship of state it is important for Zelenskyy to have a clear idea of
what "victory" looks like, what he needs to achieve that, and how to
ensure Ukraine's security after the war.
Zelenskyy was almost an accidental president when he was elected in 2019.(Reuters: Kacper Pempel)
Ian Parmeter
Ian
Parmeter is a research fellow at the Australian National University and
former counsellor at the Australian embassy in Moscow
He's a leader many people would not have heard of before the Russian invasion – how do you think he's grown in stature, and why?
Zelenskyy
was very much an unknown quantity before the Russian invasion. Clearly
the United States underestimated his capabilities and potential before
the war – as demonstrated by the US offer to evacuate him at the start
of the invasion, behind which lay Washington's apparent assessment that
Russia would take over Ukraine quickly.
It's
worth remembering that Zelenskyy was almost an accidental president
when he was elected in 2019. It's unlikely he would have contested the
election if he had not been cast as a comedian-turned-president in the
popular Ukrainian television series Servant of the People. During the
campaign he avoided serious interviews and discussions about policy,
instead posting light-hearted videos to social media.
When
he was elected, the BBC commented that pressure would be on him "to
demonstrate that he knows what he is doing". His opponent in the
election, billionaire Petro Poroshenko, whom Zelenskyy defeated by 73
per cent to 25 per cent, commented that "a new inexperienced Ukrainian
president could be quickly returned to Russia's orbit of influence".
Zelenskyy
was almost universally underestimated. Yet he grew with astounding
rapidity into the job of leading Ukraine under the pressure of crisis.
Ironically, if Putin had not launched his invasion, Zelenskyy might not
have had the opportunity to show his mettle as a leader.
Zelenskyy speaks to a Ukrainian service member amid Russia's attacks on the Donetsk region.(Reuters: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service handout)
What is your assessment of how important he's been on the international stage in terms of garnering support for Ukraine?
Very
few national leaders could have worked the international stage in the
way Zelenskyy has. His excellent communication skills in global forums
encompass the way he presents himself. His appearance is a statement –
his signature olive green sweatshirt with the Ukrainian trident on the
chest, cargo pants and work boots, complemented by uneven beard growth
that suggests he's too busy to shave regularly. That image gives urgency
to his appeals for more, and more sophisticated, weaponry and
munitions.
He seems acutely
aware that Western states backing him have limited attention spans, and
he is constantly in the faces of their leaders to prevent any slowdown
in provision of arms and training.
His
ability to connect with Western audiences in English has been a bonus.
He notes himself that his command of English was limited when Russia
invaded but has improved markedly with practice. After his address to
Congress last December Americans were reported to have commented on
social media that he spoke English better than President Biden.
Americans reportedly commented on social media last year that Zelenskyy spoke English better than President Joe Biden.(AP: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office)
At this stage what do you think will be Zelenskyy's legacy?
If
Zelenskyy is able to lead Ukraine to victory by fully achieving his
declared war aim of forcing Russian troops out of the country, his
legacy will obviously be that of a national hero. But an outcome less
than that could mean a tarnished image, particularly if Ukraine is
forced to compromise and accept Russian retention of part or all of
Ukraine's eastern provinces and Crimea. Many Ukrainians would consider
that a betrayal, particularly given the sacrifices they have had to
endure throughout the war.
Zelenskyy's
problem is that the outcome depends very much on factors he can't
control. Ukraine's ability to counter Russia has been enabled by massive
Western military, humanitarian, financial and training support.
Estimates of the total amount vary, but research by the US Council on
Foreign Relations and the UK House of Commons Library suggest that the
total may now be over US$100 billion, with the US contributing around
US$75 billion (of which nearly US$45 billion has been in military
hardware) and the rest mainly from Europe, Canada and Australia.
How long can this continue?
Though
leaders of NATO member states say regularly that the assistance will
continue "for as long as it takes", how long is inevitably subject to
domestic factors in contributing states.
Zelenskyy
will need to be diplomatic to ensure the help keeps coming. British
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace objected to being presented with a
"shopping list" on arrival in Kyiv in mid-July, commenting that
Ukraine's western allies were "not Amazon" and Kyiv needed to show
gratitude for what had already been given in order to persuade western
politicians to give more.
In
the US, aid to Ukraine is seen largely as a Biden administration
project. Republicans are less enthusiastic. Both Donald Trump and his
closest rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Ron DeSantis,
have made ambivalent statements about continued support to Ukraine. A
Republican victory in next year's presidential election could mean a
significant reduction in US support.
There
is also a question over Trump's ambiguous relationship with Putin. The
2019 Mueller report into Russian interference in the 2016 US
presidential election provided evidence that Russia used a range of
stratagems to help Trump defeat Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
The report demonstrated that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the
Wagner mercenary militia, played a major role in this exercise through
establishment of a "troll factory" (innocuously named the Internet
Research Agency) in St Petersburg but able to reach into and influence
US social media.
It seems clear
at this stage that Putin is prepared to let the war continue at least
into next year and possibly beyond in the hope of a change of US
administration in 2024 accompanied by declining Western resolve.
Zelenskyy's best hope is for the war to end in Ukraine's favour this
year.
