Extract from ABC News
Israel told Palestinians to move from Rafah, signalling a ground invasion was imminent. Twelve hours later, Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal.
So does Israel intend to launch a Rafah attack, or was it a ploy to strongarm Hamas?
It started with text messages, phone calls, and leaflets dropped from the sky on Monday morning, warning Palestinians in eastern parts of Rafah to move.
"The IDF will be operating against the terrorist organisations in the area where you are located. For your safety … evacuate immediately," the flyers declared.
And so, using any transport still available, Palestinians in Rafah — most of whom had already been displaced several times in seven months of war — fled once again.
The warnings appeared to cement Israel's intention to launch its long-promised ground invasion into Gaza's southernmost city, where more than 1 million people have been sheltering.
Palestinians, aid organisations and governments across the world — including Australia — are deeply concerned about what appears could come next.
But a little over 12 hours later, the streets of Rafah started filling with cheering Palestinians after Hamas announced it had agreed to a ceasefire proposal in the Israel-Gaza war — the closest a truce had come to being reached in months, with Israel now set to respond.
So, were the warnings for Rafah evacuations an Israeli ploy all along, or is a Rafah invasion still likely?
For months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proclaimed the last remaining Hamas battalions are hiding in Rafah, and that his forces must invade there to achieve their military goals of defeating the terrorist cell.
And he says an invasion will happen with, or without, a ceasefire and hostage release deal.
On one hand, the fresh warnings for people to leave eastern parts of Rafah are a clear indication the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are planning to send in tanks and troops.
But in briefings with journalists, an IDF spokesman wouldn't give further details on if this was the start of a wider Rafah operation or what it would look like, apart from saying it would have a "limited scope" of forced evacuations.
There is speculation from some military commentators that the warnings could have been a high-stakes bargaining chip designed to pressure Hamas into accepting the terms of a temporary ceasefire it had been deliberating over for days.
Israel says about 100,000 Palestinians are being told to move to an area about 20 kilometres away from the eastern parts of Rafah, although Palestinian sources on the ground claim the number is closer to 250,000 people.
Some in Gaza fear an IDF operation inside any part of Rafah will begin in the city's east and creep to other areas. After one place is cleared, another zone will follow.
This is a military manoeuvre seen several times throughout this war, most recently in Khan Younis, southern Gaza's largest city.
In mid-November, Palestinians there reported IDF leaflets were dropped on eastern parts of Khan Younis warning people to flee ahead of a military operation.
By January this year, the whole city was under siege from the IDF.
United Nations agencies say more than 1.4 million Palestinians are displaced and sheltering in Rafah and there is nowhere else safe for them to go.
Israel's closest ally, the United States, has repeatedly said it would not back a ground invasion of Rafah without assurances for the safety and humanitarian wellbeing of the displaced civilians there.
But that may not faze Netanyahu, who on Sunday hit back against international condemnation of a planned attack while speaking at a Holocaust memorial function, saying Israel was prepared to go it alone.
How renewed aggression could lead to ceasefire
For more than a week now, Israel and Hamas have been locked in new negotiations to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal.
On Monday, Israeli military analysts suggested the Rafah evacuation orders could be an attempt by Israel to strongarm Hamas to compromise and agree to a temporary ceasefire, rather than one that would bring a permanent end to the war.
And just over 12 hours after the military leaflets were dropped into Rafah, Hamas announced it had agreed to a ceasefire proposal by Qatari and Egyptian mediators.
Hamas says the proposal is a three-phased agreement — each phase 42 days long — that would see a truce in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages.
But critically, Hamas also said the second stage of the agreement stipulated a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — which is a demand Israel has always said it can't agree to.
The last, and only, ceasefire was for just over a week back in November. Since then, sides have been close to agreeing on several occasions but they've always fallen through.
It's likely this will happen again now, with an Israeli official indicating the Hamas-agreed proposal includes "far-reaching conclusions" that Israel can not accept.
Which puts a Rafah invasion back in the middle of the frame.
On Sunday, Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the negotiations meant his country had "no choice left" but to start a ground invasion of Rafah.
Israeli media has also reported Gallant has told the families of hostages being held inside Gaza that "negotiations under fire provide more results".
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is also being strongarmed by his right-wing coalition, the most extreme members of which are keen to see a full-scale Rafah invasion and who reject a Hamas ceasefire agreement.
Despite Netanyahu's insistence Israel is prepared to go it alone, the potential for a deeper fracture with the White House, and the loss of US backing in the war, would be a significant blow for his country.
There is a chance Israel could keep the operation in Rafah limited to the eastern areas, which could, in part, satisfy pressure from the right-wingers inside the government without upsetting the United States.
Caught in the crosshairs of any military action are innocent Palestinians and hostages held captive in Gaza.
Despite their jubilation at a possible ceasefire deal, displaced Palestinians are fearful a Rafah invasion could start any day.
They have told the ABC of their fear, and their uncertainty about whether to leave Rafah and where to go.
Amongst the Gazans the ABC has spoken with, there is also a deep distrust of the Israeli military and its safe zones.
After all, Rafah was supposed to be a safe zone and was designated as such shortly after the start of the war.
On Sunday night, before any evacuation orders were announced for Rafah, Israel targeted 11 homes in aerial bombing, which the Gazan Health Ministry said killed 26 people.
Similar attacks in Rafah have been ongoing for months.
Families the ABC has spoken with say they don't have anywhere else safe to go, and that the new designated "humanitarian areas" are already overcrowded, with little infrastructure.
They fear any wrong decision will cost them their lives.
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