Donald Trump confirms Iranian strikes in White House address
Benjamin Netanyahu congratulates Donald Trump on the Iranian strikes.
Iran's allies weakened
The reason Israel wants the attack on Iran now is because they believe Iran is at the weakest it has been for many years — and in that they are correct.
Israel feels confident that it has all of its potential combatants surrounding it covered. It has largely de-fanged Hezbollah — previously regarded by Israel as their most-serious threat.
The Houthis in Yemen may continue to cause problems to shipping, but they have also been largely weakened. They ceased firing under a warning by Trump that they would face fearsome consequences should they continue to target shipping.
Before Israel's year-long attacks in Lebanon, Hezbollah was by far the strongest of Iran's militia. The Revolutionary Guard had personally overseen the transformation of Hezbollah — "the Party of God" — from yet another militia in Lebanon to perhaps the strongest non-state army in the world.
Beginning with the famous explosions of its communications systems, Israel systematically dismantled Hezbollah, including the killing of its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.
Hamas, of course, has also been weakened — amid the rubble of Gaza the number and capability of Hamas is seriously reduced, if not now marginal.
None of this means, however, that the Supreme Leader and his Praetorian guard, the Revolutionary Guard, will put up the white flag.
It is not clear how much resilient firepower the Revolutionary Guard or Hezbollah have.
In hiding and paranoid
For Khamenei, this is a fight to the death. He's in hiding, and in fear of his life. For Iran's leader, there is a very good reason to be paranoid — the Israelis would not hesitate to kill him if they can find him.
They have made it clear that if they get the chance they will kill the leaders of their enemies — or, as they sometimes say, the "head of the snake".
We will now see what power the various Iranian proxies have. The Shia militia in Iraq and Syria will be top of the list for possible retaliation.
Likewise, with their backs to the military wall, some of the Shia militia may attempt what they regard as "soft targets" — US and Israeli cultural and community centres around the world.
On a trip to Iran last year with the ABC's Four Corners, it was clear to me that while the supreme leader has the title, the Revolutionary Guard has the real power. They control all security, intelligence and defence organisations and have significant ownership in many key businesses, which helps to fund their activities.
The current challenge to Iran's nuclear program and the bombing by the US ushers in the endgame for the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guard, which keeps him in power.
Together they know that if they do not respond, within Iran they will be seen as weak. They will be seen as having left their country defenceless.
And they will have no credibility.
If they do respond, they risk the full wrath of Donald Trump.
In this real-time battle of raw power, it will come down to Trump versus Khamenei.
And at this stage, Trump has most of the cards and most of the bombs.
As to any stability in the Middle East, that now seems further away than ever.
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