Canada's signal it will recognise Palestine part of broader international strategy on Gaza.

Extract from ABC News 

Analysis

By global affairs editor Laura Tingle

• Topic:World Politics

1 hours ago

Mark Carney says his country intends to recognise a Palestinian state. (Reuters: Patrick Doyle)

Link copied

Canada's move to join France and the United Kingdom by signalling it will recognise a Palestinian state reveals more about the highly coordinated international strategy on Gaza now unfolding that involves both Western and Arab nations.

We've seen several manifestations of that strategy in the past few days — most conspicuously, the rollout of countries declaring their intention to recognise Palestine when the UN General Assembly meets in New York next month.

But there have also been two separate statements: one released yesterday from the foreign ministers of 15 countries, including Australia, which said they "already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine, as an essential step towards the two-state solution, and invite all countries that have not done so to join this call".

In other words, they weren't yet declaring they would back a push for Palestinian statehood, but Israel was put on notice that others were likely to join the move by what was then two major countries to shift position.

In making the statement, those 15 countries were implicitly backing the actions of France and the UK.

Which countries recognise the state of Palestine?

Photo shows People wave Palestinian flags in support of resolution.

Before the UK and Canada said they'd recognise Palestinian statehood, more than 100 other countries had already done so.

There was also a separate, much longer statement — the New York Declaration — emanating from a UN High-Level International Conference, which is just wrapping up.

The statement was from the co-chairs of the conference: France and Saudi Arabia, and it significantly included Egypt, Qatar, Jordan and the League of Arab States.

For the first time, this group of 18 countries not only agreed to take collective action, but also condemned the Hamas attacks of October 7, as well as Israel's attacks on civilians in Gaza.

While it treads more carefully than the foreign ministers' statement, the declaration reflects the coordinated process that has been underway — led by France and the Saudis since early this year — to address the crisis over Palestine.

Australia has been involved in this process, as reflected by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's repeated assertions that Australia is acting as part of an international effort rather than unilaterally.

Significantly, the PM made several references at his press conference in Canberra on Wednesday to "the commitments made by the president of the Palestinian Authority on June 10".

Will Australia follow the UK and France and move towards recognition of Palestine? (Jacob Greber)

UK and France declarations leave US as roadblock

Like the New York Declaration, these commitments by Mahmoud Abbas condemned the October 7 terrorist attacks, and notably called for the liberation of hostages and disarmament of Hamas.

He also calls for "elections within a year to trigger generational renewal and accepts the principle of a demilitarised Palestinian State".

And it's noteworthy that while France and the UK have emphasised pressure on Israel to cease hostilities in Gaza and allow aid in, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney particularly has upped the pressure on the Palestinian Authority to get its house in order.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer suggested in his statement that the UK might not proceed if Israel was to meet various conditions — including agreeing to a ceasefire and taking "substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza".

But given Israeli intransigence, the UK must have made this statement on the presumption that the likelihood of Israel meeting all the conditions was pretty low.

In contrast, Carney said Canada's intention to recognise Palestine was "predicated on the Palestinian Authority's commitment to much-needed reforms, including the commitments by Palestinian Authority President Abbas to fundamentally reform its governance, to hold general elections in 2026 in which Hamas can play no part, and to demilitarise the Palestinian state".

The international effort appears to recognise the much-weakened political and military state of Hamas after almost two years of horrendous attacks on civilians in Gaza, and with its Iranian backers, and Hezbollah, also significantly diminished.

While Hamas has continued to resist the push for hostages to be released, there is a clear sense within the international community that a tipping point has been reached, both in the position of Hamas and in the collapsed moral authority of Israel.

Also, the declarations by France and the UK mean that four out of five permanent members of the UN Security Council now support Palestinian recognition.

That just leaves the United States as the blocker and the move must increase pressure on US President Donald Trump to move too.

Significantly, his remarks on statehood on Air Force One on Wednesday morning, Australian time, were not dogmatically against it, just that he was not in the statehood camp at the moment.

Is the two-state solution the only pathway to peace? Former Middle East correspondent Ben Knight explains.

Questions remain about what will be left to form state

Resisting the renewed push for Palestinian statehood has been rationalised until now because the question of who would run Palestine is a live one: Hamas as a terrorist organisation is not an option that any Western nation is prepared to accept; but the Palestinian Authority also faces problems of both external and internal legitimacy.

The Palestinian Authority hasn't held an election in the West Bank since 2006 and Palestinians living there do not have the right to vote in Israeli elections. Similarly, Hamas hasn't held elections since it took over Gaza in 2007.

But both the aggressive push to annex large areas of the West Bank and now Gaza, and the utter physical devastation of the Gaza Strip, also raise the question of what will be left to form the basis of any future Palestinian state if the world cannot force the issue soon.

Analysis: Even Bibi's biggest backer doesn't believe Gaza claims

Photo shows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump shake hands.

Donald Trump's latest statement on Gaza suggests the ties binding the US administration and the Netanyahu government may be fraying. 

In this regard, Carney's statement noted Israeli actions including "the accelerated settlement building across the West Bank and East Jerusalem, while settler violence against Palestinians has soared".

He also noted "actions such as the E1 Settlement Plan and this month's vote by the Knesset calling for the annexation of the West Bank [and] the ongoing failure by the Israeli government to prevent the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian disaster in Gaza, with impeded access to food and other essential humanitarian supplies".

"The deepening suffering of civilians leaves no room for delay in co-ordinated international action to support peace, security, and the dignity of all human life," he said.

"Preserving a two-state solution means standing with all people who choose peace over violence or terrorism, and honouring their innate desire for the peaceful co-existence of Israeli and Palestinian states as the only roadmap for a secure and prosperous future."

Israel has already rejected both Canada and the UK's statements, arguing they are "a reward for Hamas" and will harm ceasefire efforts.

Sources say that the focus of the peace push will not be on determining borders but on the fundamental need to put in place the governance and security architecture to allow the rebuilding of Gaza.