Extract from The Guardian
Bill Shorten
is starting the election year with a national tour of marginal seats as
the Labor leader tries to attract voters’ attention during what he
insists is Malcolm Turnbull’s protracted “honeymoon”.
Shorten, who was the preferred prime minister for only 14% of the electorate in the final Newspoll of 2015, says he will focus on the government’s plans “to put a 15% GST on everything”, to “cut penalty rates” and to “cut health services”.
But the government is still deciding what those plans are – including whether to include a GST increase in its tax changes and whether to proceed with a recommendation from the Productivity Commission to reduce Sunday penalty rates.
Turnbull also returned to his office on Monday, planning a week of policy work before his first prime ministerial trip to Washington next week.
As the leaders get back to work, party strategists have begun the tactical manoeuvring that characterises an election year.
There has been some speculation within Coalition ranks about the possibility of Turnbull capitalising on his poll lead by going for an early election.
Most consider this unlikely, precisely because so much of the Coalition’s election agenda remains undecided. Turnbull sought the leadership to make the case for economic change and to get a mandate to deliver it.
The government also has no immediate trigger for an early double dissolution poll. It intends to revise one of its double dissolution election triggers – the Registered Organisations Commission bill – after the final report by the trade unions royal commission. The other available trigger is the bill to abolish the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, which the government now intends to keep.
But Coalition sources concede that the early election chatter could help head off any move by Labor to replace Shorten, who they are hoping will lead the ALP to the poll.
While most Labor sources insist Shorten’s leadership is safe, there is a growing nervousness in the party as it looks for some improvement in his standing when polling resumes for 2016, as well as in the two-party-preferred vote, which has shown the Coalition with a consistent and commanding lead of 53% to Labor’s 47%.
The Australian Electoral Commission will release the final boundaries for the New South Wales redistribution this week, the final procedural hurdle for the federal poll. But a spokesman said the new boundaries would not be gazetted until 25 February, meaning a poll based on them could not be held before April, given the minimum campaigning period of 33 days.
Having insisted that “everything is on the table” as tax changes are considered, government sources say the parameters for the final tax package must be finalised by next month. It is not yet certain if the final plan will include a rise in the GST rate or the idea that the federal government could give the states a guaranteed share of income tax in return for assent to the GST increase.
But decisions must be made by March when the prime minister and premiers will meet again as the Council of Australian Governments to agree on tax reform and how the states can make up the $80bn in promised payments for education and health over the next 10 years that was cut in the first Abbott budget.
Shorten says he will visit marginal seats on the NSW northern and central coast, Tasmania, north Queensland, the Northern Territory and Victoria.
And despite the lack of clarity from the government, he will campaign as if the tax is increasing and penalty cuts are in effect.
“Labor is completely opposed to the Liberals’ increasing the GST and its plans to cut penalty rates. We will fight this fight every day until we win,” Shorten said.
Shorten, who was the preferred prime minister for only 14% of the electorate in the final Newspoll of 2015, says he will focus on the government’s plans “to put a 15% GST on everything”, to “cut penalty rates” and to “cut health services”.
But the government is still deciding what those plans are – including whether to include a GST increase in its tax changes and whether to proceed with a recommendation from the Productivity Commission to reduce Sunday penalty rates.
Turnbull also returned to his office on Monday, planning a week of policy work before his first prime ministerial trip to Washington next week.
As the leaders get back to work, party strategists have begun the tactical manoeuvring that characterises an election year.
There has been some speculation within Coalition ranks about the possibility of Turnbull capitalising on his poll lead by going for an early election.
Most consider this unlikely, precisely because so much of the Coalition’s election agenda remains undecided. Turnbull sought the leadership to make the case for economic change and to get a mandate to deliver it.
The government also has no immediate trigger for an early double dissolution poll. It intends to revise one of its double dissolution election triggers – the Registered Organisations Commission bill – after the final report by the trade unions royal commission. The other available trigger is the bill to abolish the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, which the government now intends to keep.
But Coalition sources concede that the early election chatter could help head off any move by Labor to replace Shorten, who they are hoping will lead the ALP to the poll.
While most Labor sources insist Shorten’s leadership is safe, there is a growing nervousness in the party as it looks for some improvement in his standing when polling resumes for 2016, as well as in the two-party-preferred vote, which has shown the Coalition with a consistent and commanding lead of 53% to Labor’s 47%.
The Australian Electoral Commission will release the final boundaries for the New South Wales redistribution this week, the final procedural hurdle for the federal poll. But a spokesman said the new boundaries would not be gazetted until 25 February, meaning a poll based on them could not be held before April, given the minimum campaigning period of 33 days.
Having insisted that “everything is on the table” as tax changes are considered, government sources say the parameters for the final tax package must be finalised by next month. It is not yet certain if the final plan will include a rise in the GST rate or the idea that the federal government could give the states a guaranteed share of income tax in return for assent to the GST increase.
But decisions must be made by March when the prime minister and premiers will meet again as the Council of Australian Governments to agree on tax reform and how the states can make up the $80bn in promised payments for education and health over the next 10 years that was cut in the first Abbott budget.
Shorten says he will visit marginal seats on the NSW northern and central coast, Tasmania, north Queensland, the Northern Territory and Victoria.
And despite the lack of clarity from the government, he will campaign as if the tax is increasing and penalty cuts are in effect.
“Labor is completely opposed to the Liberals’ increasing the GST and its plans to cut penalty rates. We will fight this fight every day until we win,” Shorten said.
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