Thursday 27 May 2021

The Melbourne COVID outbreak may have done more to shake vaccine hesitancy than the national advertising campaign.

Extract from ABC News

Analysis

By David Speers
Scott Morrison looks into the distance, standing beside Greg Hunt and Brendan Murphy at podia with microphones
It's not clear whether this Melbourne outbreak will inject more urgency into the Morrison Government's response. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Now we know what it takes to shake vaccine hesitancy and complacency — a COVID outbreak. 

Victoria recorded its biggest single day of vaccinations after news broke of the state's latest cluster: 15,858 people received a jab on Tuesday, compared to a daily average of 6,286 for the previous week. 

Whether it's having to wear masks again, the prospect of another lockdown, or the very real risk of contracting coronavirus itself, clearly a large number of Victorians over the age of 50 who have been eligible for weeks were finally spooked into getting a jab. 

The frightening reality of having COVID back in the community has done far more than the federal government's $40m vaccine advertising campaign has achieved to date. As Acting Victorian Premier James Merlino noted, the jump in doses delivered was "the one positive to come out of all of this". Victorian Acting Premier James Merlino speaks on May 26 2021

James Merlino says a purpose built quarantine facility is "the most important thing we need to get settled right now". (ABC News)

The return of community transmission has put Melbourne on edge this week. The masks, crowd limits and regular checking of exposure sites are all too familiar in this city. 

This time though, there's an added edge of frustration. The man in his 60s responsible for at least some of the virus spreading had symptoms and was infectious in the community for a whole week before getting tested. And at least three of those who have now tested positive are over the age of 50 and had not been vaccinated. 

Complacency has been a contributor to this cluster. The outbreak is a much-needed wake-up call for the community. 

Will the Melbourne outbreak inject urgency into Canberra's response?

It's less clear whether this Melbourne outbreak will also inject more urgency into the Morrison Government's response. There's been no step-up yet in the vaccine advertising campaign, nor any noticeable progress on a new purpose-built quarantine facility. 

Indeed, the Acting Premier revealed on Wednesday morning he had not heard from the Prime Minister in days. (By 2:00pm Scott Morrison was able to tell Question Time he had spoken to Merlino, so someone clearly got the message).

A vaccinator in a surgical mask administered a needle to a man with a mask and beanie on, smiling, in a chair.

Victoria recorded its biggest single day of vaccinations after news broke of the state's latest cluster on Tuesday.
(AAP: Luis Ascui)

On vaccine advertising, Scott Morrison has resisted calls for a big bang campaign on the grounds it "doesn't bring the Pfizer vaccine here any time sooner". That's certainly true, but it also underscores Australia's supply problem. 

While Australia waits for the mRNA jabs to arrive later in the year, others are surging ahead. The United States, which is producing Pfizer and Moderna locally, has now vaccinated half its adult population. 

Fortunately, the government has secured access to 20 million Pfizer and 25 million Moderna doses. Unfortunately, it will be another four months before the government expects to have a steady stream of around 2 million Pfizer jabs available each week. That means a long and risky winter ahead unless more Australians take up the AstraZeneca on offer. 

After copping flak last week for telling over-50s "there will be enough mRNA vaccines for every Australian" later in the year, Health Minister Greg Hunt was this week telling talkback radio listeners, "if you wait and catch COVID, you can die". Blunt, but true. 

Some in Labor are suggesting a major change to speed up the rollout: using the now plentiful AstraZeneca supplies for those under the age of 50 who aren't deterred by the remote blood clotting risks.

Any change on this front, though, would have to be based on expert medical advice, which at this point hasn't changed. 

Piling pressure on the PM over vaccine rollout

In the meantime, Labor used Question Time on Wednesday to pile more pressure on the Prime Minister over the vaccine rollout and hotel quarantine failures. 

According to genomic sequencing, this latest Melbourne cluster originated from a man who contracted the virus while in hotel quarantine in Adelaide. The case adds weight to the arguments in favour of building more purpose-built facilities, like the one Victoria has proposed. 

The Commonwealth has now been considering the proposal for four weeks and while it describes the plan as "constructive", it's yet to commit. James Merlino says this facility is "the most important thing we need to get settled right now". 

Clearly any escalation of the Melbourne outbreak will also escalate pressure on the Morrison Government over quarantine arrangements and vaccinations. 

For now, the Prime Minister bats away these critiques by sticking with international comparisons. "I don't know Australians who want to go and take up residence and live in the COVID environment, whether it be in Europe, the United States, UK or anywhere else." 

No doubt, that's been the widespread view for the past 12 months. Australia has been the envy of the world when it comes to keeping COVID out. Whether such a view holds as Europe, the UK and the US open up is another question. 

While freedom slowly returns elsewhere, Australia is heading into winter with a majority of the population unvaccinated. As this week has demonstrated, even a closed border can't keep COVID out entirely. 

David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iView.

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