Extract from ABC News
Analysis
The past few days have seen a stunning series of Ukrainian battlefield achievements.
While making slow but steady progress in their southern offensive, the Ukrainian armed forces launched a concurrent offensive in the north-east. This northern thrust has captured the attention of many because of the massive amount of Ukrainian territory that has been recaptured.
The combination of these two Ukrainian offensives has important implications for the war. The significant changes of the past week give heart to the Ukrainian people, and those around the world who support them.
It gives confidence to the Ukrainian military, that once again has proven its capacity to beat the Russians on the battlefield. And it again shows just how flawed Russian strategy in this war has been.
Russia's initial plans
Since the beginning of the war on February 24, Russian strategy has constantly evolved.
Putin's initial plan, seven months ago, was for a lightning military operation conducted on multiple fronts to shock the Ukrainian military and government into submission. The courageous and resilient Ukrainians called the Russian bluff and defeated the Russian Army in the north and north-east.
As a consequence, Putin and his military chiefs cobbled together an alternative theory of victory for Ukraine. They prioritised their military operations in the south and the east, eschewing the initial multi-front onslaughts. This was accompanied by strategic missile strikes, as well "energy warfare" against Europe.
For a while, the Russians were able to draw Ukraine into a battle of attrition in the east. But this started to change in July, with the introduction of HIMARS weapon systems, Ukrainian attacks in the south and growing Russian exhaustion.
In August, it became apparent the initiative in this war might be shifting from the Russians to the Ukrainians. Changes in the situation in July and into early August were altering the dynamic between invader and defender.
A shifting offensive
This week has seen significant shifts in the momentum of the war. While much currently remains unknown about the outcomes of the Ukrainian offensives and potential Russian responses, the strategic initiative in this war has probably shifted to the Ukrainians in the last few days.
History shows that once battlefield momentum is generated, success tends to lead to subsequent successes. The caveat, of course, is that this demands that such momentum be continuously exploited and well-led. But triumph on the battlefield can be infectious.
The Russians, despite their early accomplishments in seizing Ukrainian territory, have largely been unable to generate or sustain such momentum.
Bad leadership and support, poor battlefield integration, a lack of reinforcements, and early tactical defeats — and a bad overall strategy – have denied them this. It is unlikely they now possess the means to reverse Ukrainian momentum.
For the Russians, losing the initiative is another disaster in an invasion that has been catastrophic for the Ukrainian people, and corrosive for Russian military institutions.
It is difficult to see them regaining the initiative, short of a wholesale mobilisation of their nation. And while this is not beyond the realms of possibility, it would introduce new domestic political challenges for Putin.
Now that the Russians are able to only respond to the Ukrainians' offensives, morale and tactical effectiveness may very quickly decline. Military forces under pressure, especially those that are isolated or surrounded like those deployed west of the Dnipro, can collapse catastrophically in the absence of excellent leadership. And there has been little of evidence of good battlefield leadership from the Russians.
All eyes will now be on Putin
The combination of pressure on multiple fronts, limitations on the availability of reinforcements, the Ukrainian advantage of interior lines, and ongoing Western support for Ukraine means the Russians are now under significant psychological pressure at all levels.
And if images of large numbers of retreating and captured Russian troops emerge in the coming days, it may be a strategic calamity for President Putin.
With all these challenges in Ukraine, as well as failing economic and energy coercion, the Russians will be challenged to produce a new "theory of victory". Indeed, it is extraordinarily difficult to imagine how the Russians can concoct a story that portrays success from hereon.
Therefore the Russians, while not beaten, are in trouble. Because of this, we should watch for unexpected reactions from Putin. He has shown no signs of wanting to pull back from this invasion.
And lest we get too triumphalist, it should be recalled that Luhansk and large parts of Donetsk and southern Ukraine remain occupied by the Russians. Subsequent Ukrainian offensives will be necessary to clear these areas.
However, after seven months of this vicious Russian assault on its neighbour, Ukraine now has the strategic initiative going into the winter.
The war is far from over, but perhaps the tide is finally turning.
Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.
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