Extract from ABC News
The battle for Kherson has been building. There have been rumours Russia is setting a trap, as well as evidence of Moscow relocating command centres. There have been evacuations and actions by the local resistance.
It is a city Ukraine is determined to win back.
Kherson is the only provincial capital currently under Russian control that was in Ukrainian hands at the time of the invasion in February.
For Russia, being forced back beyond the city's limits would give Vladimir Putin even less to show for his deadly 'military operation' — a war that is now forcing his own countrymen onto the battlefield, often against their will.
For Ukraine, a win in Kherson would keep up their momentum and keep alive the idea that this is not a forever war, but one they can win.
Winning any battle for the city of Kherson would be symbolic to both sides, but claiming the entire region would also give the victor strategic advantages in the war.
A city on edge
Kherson is an important industrial and cultural city in southern Ukraine. It sits on the Dnipro River, which dissects the Kherson region, or oblast. To the east is occupied territory in Zaporizhia and to the south is annexed Crimea.
While it holds the Kherson region, Moscow has a land bridge to the Black Sea peninsula.
With Kherson city comes a major port on the Black Sea and a key link in the shipping chain of grain and oil products from agricultural areas along the Dnipro River to the rest of the world.
When Russian invaders claimed full control of the city in March, it gave Vladimir Putin another port and another way to disrupt global supply chains while shoring up his own.
For the people of Kherson, many evacuated west to evade Russian occupation, but those who stayed were forced to live alongside their invaders.
The Kremlin installed Vladimir Saldo as the regional head and over recent weeks he has urged citizens to leave the city.
Saldo even claimed residents who had left and resettled in neighbouring Russian-controlled areas had been issued "housing certificates".
"Those who left receive a lift of 100,000 rubles and a house certificate which they can use to purchase housing," he said on his official Telegram channel.
The recent evacuations have been interpreted as another sign Russia is either preparing to retreat or for a deadly battle.
A few days ago, a Russian-installed official announced the Kremlin would pull its troops back from the western side of the city and the river.
Kyiv treated the news cautiously, fearing this was Moscow setting a trap for the advancing Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainian line is only about 30 kilometres from the centre of Kherson, but progress through the south has been slow.
Ukrainian forces have targeted river crossings, making it hard for Russian forces on the western side to resupply.
But now there are outward signs of Russian retreat.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Russian and Ukrainian sources had discussed the reported closure of Russian checkpoints in the vicinity of Kherson, the theft of city's monuments, and the removal of a Russian flag from an administration building.
But no-one is sure what Russia is really planning.
"While the relocation of the Kherson Oblast occupation government may suggest that Russian forces are preparing to abandon Kherson City, it may equally indicate that they are setting conditions for urban combat within the city," the ISW said.
"Some Russian elite units — such as airborne forces and naval infantry — are reportedly continuing to operate on the western bank of the Dnipro River.
"Their full withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast would be a clearer indicator that Russian forces will not fight for Kherson City or settlements on the right bank."
Kherson is one of the four regions Vladimir Putin tried to annex via sham referendums at the start of last month.
He may have signed a Russian law absorbing the territory into his country, but his forces on the ground haven't been able to hold the entire region.
On Friday, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said he believed Ukraine was capable of retaking the city.
"On the issue of whether the Ukrainians can take the remaining territory on the west side of the Dnipro River and in Kherson, I certainly believe that they have the capability to do that," he said.
Since its seizure, Ukrainian resistance fighters have challenged Russian troops for control of the city, with acts of sabotage and reported assassination attempts on Moscow-appointed officials.
Significance of Kherson
Ukraine forces retaking swathes of the Kherson region would deprive Moscow of the land corridor.
It would also bring long-range Ukrainian artillery closer to Crimea, which Moscow sees as vitally important to its interests.
Crimea is home to a huge Russian military force and the Black Sea Fleet, which Moscow uses to project power into the Mediterranean and the Middle East.
The annexing of the region is also one of Vladimir Putin's proudest achievements.
Fresh water supply to Crimea would be imperilled if Ukraine retakes Kherson region.
After Moscow seized Crimea, Kyiv blocked water supplies via a canal from the Dnipro River.
When Russia seized chunks of Kherson region and neighbouring Zaporizhzhia region to the east, it immediately moved to unblock the canal to return freshwater flow.
Russia needs that water for the local population, the irrigation of the peninsula's arid land and for numerous military facilities.
For a desperate Vladimir Putin, there is a lot on the line in Kherson.
"A victory or the liberation of Kherson by Ukraine would be another means of putting significant pressure on the Russian leadership," said Keir Giles, a Russia expert and senior consulting fellow at Chatham House.
"[Every Ukrainian victory] makes it harder for them to maintain the narrative of the war among Russia's domestic population and harder to pretend that this whole campaign has not been a massive strategic blunder."
The potential for Ukraine
For Ukraine, seizing back control of the city of Kherson would keep up much-needed momentum.
"Ukrainian military success is the best lever that it has for keeping its international coalition of Western backers together," Mr Giles said.
"Because what Ukraine needs to avoid is a return to the situation of the summer where it looked as though there was a stalemate, it looked as though this was going to be a forever war.
"What is galvanising the continued support is a demonstration by Ukraine that actually, they do have the capacity to achieve major battlefield successes."
As for what might be found when or if Ukraine retakes Kherson, Mr Giles said: "There's no reason to suspect that the population of Kherson will have been treated any better than any of the other population centres within Ukraine that have been under this savage and brutal Russian occupation."
"In a city the size of Kherson, it's very likely that there are some deeply unpleasant circumstances still to be discovered when Ukrainian troops finally liberate it."
ABC/Reuters/AP
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