Extract from ABC News
The disintegration of the Russian state might sound like a dramatic prediction, but that's exactly where some experts say Vladimir Putin's war with Ukraine could be heading.
Key points:
- Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges says the war has exposed Russia's army as "vulnerable" and "corrupt"
- He predicts some of the nation's smaller ethnic groups could be preparing for an independence bid
- The International Energy Agency says sanctions will cost Russia at least $1 trillion by 2030
Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a former commander of the US Army in Europe, believes Russia's failure to successfully defeat Ukraine could be the beginning of the end for the Russian Federation.
"There are centrifugal forces at work that are going to pull it apart," he told the ABC News Daily podcast.
"I believe we need to be prepared for the possibility of the break-up of the Russian Federation."
General Hodges, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, said Russia had failed in its main objective: to absorb Ukraine back into the former Russian empire.
Instead, he said he believed Vladimir Putin's flailing nine-month-long invasion had revealed three main factors that could contribute to a complete collapse of Russia as it exists today.
The first, he said, was because Russia's many military miscalculations had exposed its army as "vulnerable and weak and corrupt".
"Some of the 120 different ethnic groups and small republics that make up the Russian Federation see that this is their opportunity. They know they're the ones that are paying the price," General Hodges said.
Many of these smaller ethnic groups have been particularly affected by Russia's recent efforts to conscript 300,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine.
"I think some of them, like Dagestan, for example, maybe even Chechnya, see this as their opportunity to finally get out from underneath the Russian imperialistic control," he said.
General Hodges said the ruler of the Russian republic of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, in particular, could be preparing for an independence push, despite the fact he is providing support to Russia in Ukraine.
"He's a loud-mouth advocate for doing more damage in Ukraine. But if you look closely, most [Chechen] soldiers are not actually involved in most of the intensive fighting," he said.
"If my theory is correct, he's protecting his own capabilities to be able to break away or take over himself inside the Kremlin."
Matthew Sussex, a senior fellow from the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at Australia National University, called Russia's disintegration a "black swan event," but said specialists often forgot how fragile the multi-ethnic state was.
For him, Vladimir Putin has been the key to holding it together.
"The war is really quite a serious challenge to Putin's authority, a much more serious challenge than he's ever experienced before," Mr Sussex said.
"Putin, for all his faults, has managed to keep Russia together. There's no guarantee that whoever succeeds him would be able to fulfil the same role."
Russia's weakening economic situation
The second factor General Hodges thinks may lead to the state's collapse is the weakening of Russia's economy, especially its growing inability to sell energy and weapons– two of Russia's most crucial exports.
"Nobody is going to be interested in buying Russian weapons after seeing the performance of much of Russia's equipment,' he said.
"And I think the Kremlin played the gas card a little too early, so that even Germany had time to make the necessary adjustment."
An October report from the International Energy Agency suggested Russia's invasion of Ukraine could see its share of internationally traded gas fall to 15 per cent by 2030, compared to 30 per cent last year.
The agency's report said the loss of Europe as its biggest market and harsher economic sanctions would cost Russia $1 trillion in hydrocarbon export revenues by 2030.
However, Mr Sussex said Russia may have insulated itself from some of the damage inflicted by Western sanctions "partly through sovereign wealth funds and partly through high prices for energy".
"It's found new partners and new markets in India, for instance, and Indonesia," he said.
"So I wouldn't necessarily be too confident that a Russian economic collapse is just on the horizon.
"Russia does have a tendency of being able to sort of muddle on through these things."
The third reason the federation could collapse, according to General Hodges, is due to Russia's vast size and relatively small population; Russia will struggle to maintain civic solidarity between many different ethnic groups across the continent, and its ability to defend its borders.
"The Chinese, I think, are probably looking at Siberia saying, 'OK, that's really ours'. And I don't think that the Russians will be able to stop it," he said.
"Nobody is scared of the Russian army anymore."
Russia's downfall could have debilitating consequences
General Hodges believes the international community isn't paying enough attention to the possibility of the Russian Federation's collapse.
He says now is the time to be asking difficult questions to learn from the mistakes that were made when the Soviet Union fell in 1991.
"It happened so quickly, we were caught by surprise,' he said.
"Many people assumed that [Russia would] become capitalistic, they're going to be democratic and everything is going to be better, and we'll never have to worry about Russian aggression again. How naive we were."
Russia's stockpiles of nuclear weapons is of particular concern.
"There are thousands of nuclear weapons out there, and, of course, Iran would love to get their hands on some of those nuclear weapons."
Mr Sussex said the nuclear threat could also come from within the state itself.
"Under a Russia break-up scenario, you could have a lot of new nuclear-armed states that were divided amongst one another on ethnic lines," he said.
"That raises fears about conflict, spill-over and escalation and nationalism. How do you manage those nuclear weapons? How do you prevent a sort of statelet from going rogue?"
Mr Sussex said the destabilising effect of Russia across the world would be enormous.
"It would be hugely destabilising because you've got a permanent member of the UN Security Council, one of the most powerful countries in the world […] effectively winking out of existence or becoming torn by civil conflict," he said.
"It could well be that Russia enters into a period of basically de-modernisation, becoming North Korea effectively.
"Increasing ethnic tensions and ethnic rivalry until the centre just can't hold anymore and the thing starts to fragment and you get civil war and strife and humanitarian disasters and so forth.
"It could be tomorrow, it could be in six years from now. It could never happen."
'All roads lead to Crimea'
On Thursday, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered his troops to retreat from southern areas of Ukraine, including the Russian-held city of Kherson.
A full retreat would be widely regarded as a victory for the Ukrainian counter-offensive which launched in August.
General Hodges predicts this could be just the start, and Ukrainian soldiers will push Russian forces back to the positions they were in at the start of the war, then liberate Crimea by the middle of next year.
"All roads lead to Crimea … it's the prize," he said.
He predicts the next step in Ukraine's advance will be the retaking of the city of Kherson, just north of the Crimean Peninsula.
"Once they get there […] they can start using precision weapons to make the airfields and the seaports unusable for the Russians," he said.
He said the destruction of the Kersh Bridge in Ukrainian attacks last month had left Russia with few options to resupply and reinforce their forces.
"The Black Sea is a very, very difficult place to be for sailors in the wintertime. So [Russia] won't just be able to ferry back and forth lots of equipment and supplies," he said.
"I think that that's why I have optimism that Ukraine will be successful here."
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