Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Donald Trump has been changing the rules of international relations during his second term. (AP: Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
Of all the foreign policy gambits imagined for the second Donald Trump presidency, the US threatening to seize control of territory held by a NATO ally, and in doing so triggering an international crisis, would not have registered on many bingo cards.
Yet, that's exactly where the world finds itself this week as it marks the first anniversary of Trump's inauguration, mark two.
And what a year it has been for US foreign policy. The Greenland showdown is but the culmination of 12 months of global upheaval.
The US president has gleefully up-ended the rules-based international order that has kept the world largely secure since the end of World War II.
Donald Trump has enjoyed plenty of pomp during both his presidencies. (Supplied: The White House)
It is what brooked this statement from exasperated French President Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland overnight:
"It's a shift towards a world without rules. Where international law is trampled underfoot and where the only law that seems to matter is that of the strongest, and imperial ambitions are resurfacing."
When he rose to deliver his second inaugural address a year ago, Trump talked about measuring his success not just by the battles the US wins, but also the wars America ends or never gets into in the first place.
"My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and a unifier," he declared.
"That's what I want to be: a peacemaker and a unifier."
War and peace
One year on, peace and unity have been in short supply.
The US has launched military strikes on Iran, Syria, Nigeria and Yemen. Russia's war in Ukraine has entered a fifth year, and the Gaza ceasefire is shaky at best.
Just this month, the world watched as American forces snatched Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in an overnight raid.
"I think it is fair to say the president is quite unpredictable in his approach to foreign policy," says Bec Strating, director of the La Trobe Centre for Global Security.
"It feels like every day we wake up and there's a new piece of news that is surprising that we probably wouldn't have anticipated."
Greenland is firmly on that list.
Children play in Greenland, a nation now at the centre of a global row. (AP: Emilio Morenatti)
Leaders from the US and Denmark met in Nuuk, Greenland in mid-January. (Reuters: Marko Djurica)
Even though the Trump administration made clear in its new national security strategy released last month that the US must remain pre-eminent in the Western Hemisphere, NATO allies have been taken aback by the president's determination to grab hold of Danish territory.
"Back in the first term, they used to say the mistake people made was that they took Trump literally, but not seriously," notes Hugh White, emeritus professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University.
"These days, we have to turn that around and say we have to take him both literally and seriously.
"That is, he really does intend to completely transform American foreign policy. And in the process, he's doing some of the crazy things, which when he first talked about doing, people dismissed as unthinkable."
Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has been firm that Greenland is not for sale. (Reuters: Ritzau Scanpix/Emil Nicolai Helms)
Matthew Duss, the executive vice-president of the Washington-based Centre for International Policy and a former foreign policy advisor to Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, is more blunt.
"I've referred to it in the past as essentially running a global mafia. That is really how he seems to see the United States. It's a world now of might makes right," Duss told 7.30.
US Vice-President JD Vance visited Greenland in late 2025. (Reuters: Jim Watson)
Trump is undeterred by the wave of international condemnation of his move on Greenland. He is clearly emboldened by the success of the bold US intervention in Venezuela.
And, unlike his first term, where establishment figures in the White House reined in the president's impulses, there's nothing but wild support by the Trump supporters who now work there.
Trump candidly told The New York Times this month his power as Commander in Chief was constrained only by his own "morality".
White says it signifies a shift in what the US president sees as a different vision of the world order.
"More broadly, I think what we are seeing is Trump's endorsement of an emergence of a world of great powers with spheres of influence," White said.
"Trump wants to consolidate America's sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere, and the Greenland play is very much part of that.
"Vladimir Putin wants to consolidate Russia's sphere of influence in what the Russians have always called their near abroad … and China wants to consolidate its sphere of influence in East Asia and the Western Pacific.
Vladimir Putin has his own authoritarian views on foreign policy. (Reuters: Vladimir Pirogov)
"In a sense, what we're seeing with Trump is him acknowledging and conforming to a very different vision of world order from the one we all thought we'd entered into at the end of the Cold War."
No eyes on Asia
While Trump's attention in the last year has been focused on the other side of the world, his approach to foreign policy this time around is raising questions about America's commitment to the Asia-Pacific region.
The US president ventured to Kuala Lumpur in October to attend the ASEAN summit, but Strating believes Trump hasn't much to show beyond that.
"There doesn't seem to be a lot of focus on Asia or even a coherent or developed Asia strategy for the United States," she said.
A strategy will certainly be needed in the event of a regional flashpoint, particularly if China acts on its long-stated ambition to take control of Taiwan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been very open on his views on Taiwan and it belonging to China. (Reuters: Jason Lee)
Duss believes Trump would not want to involve the US in a protracted war with China over Taiwan.
"I think it's very unlikely he would want to engage in a longer conflict over Taiwan, which is what it would be if the United States was going to undertake to defend Taiwan," he said.
"That would not be over quickly, and I think he understands that."
Australia needs a plan B
For its part, Australia has so far navigated the second Trump presidency relatively successfully.
Although we couldn't escape Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, the October White House meeting between him and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese went off without a hitch, except for the president being publicly reminded about some colourful tweets by Australia's outgoing US ambassador, Kevin Rudd.
Anthony Albanese has largely enjoyed a good relationship with the US president. (AAP: Lukas Coch)
The US has reaffirmed its commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal, after some nervous moments for Australian officials. But some challenges may lie ahead if the next three years of the Trump presidency are as mercurial as the first.
White, a former senior Australian defence official, has been warning for years that Australia needs to stop depending on the US for military security and become more self-reliant. His views have hardened over the last 12 months.
"I think we've got a real wake-up call from Australia's point of view," White said.
"The idea that we should be relying on the United States under Trump to continue to maintain its strategic leadership in this part of the world, making Asia safe for us as they have done for so long, I think under Trump that's something we absolutely cannot take for granted."
Strating agrees; some tough questions may need to be asked.
"What's our plan B?" she questioned.
"What is Australia going to do if the United States goes further down the path of, say, increasing authoritarianism, withdrawing from international law, declaring that international law doesn't matter?
"As a middle power country that relies on a rules-based order, as we are often told, the idea that our ally is willing to disregard international norms and institutions is a pretty scary prospect."
For the moment at least, there is no plan B for Australia.
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