Extract from ABC News
A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska as it is intercepted by the US Navy in a location given as the north Arabian Sea. (Reuters: CENTCOM/Handout)
Hello, ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran writing to you from Jerusalem at the end of:
- Day 52 of the war
- Day 13 of the ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran
- Day four of the ceasefire in Lebanon
- Day eight of the US blockade of Iran.
Here's what you need to know today:
- The Middle East ceasefire is hanging by a thread, with Iran refusing to commit to further peace talks in Pakistan in protest against what it says are US violations of the fragile truce. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump said he expected another round of negotiations in Islamabad on Monday night, local time, but by Monday morning, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said there was little point in the regime joining the talks.
- Tehran does appear to be keeping its options open, with Reuters reporting it is considering joining talks on Tuesday. The initial two-week ceasefire, if it lapses after exactly a fortnight, is due to expire in the early hours of Wednesday.
- Aside from the debate around the merits of further talks between the US and Iran, a yawning gulf remains between the negotiating positions of the two countries. Key issues include who gets to control the Strait of Hormuz (and barely any ships made it through the vital channel on Monday) and Iran's nuclear ambitions.
- Crews have been searching parts of southern Lebanon for the remains of people killed in Israeli strikes before the ceasefire there was imposed late last week. During Israel's bombardment of claimed Hezbollah targets across the south and the capital, Beirut, more than 2,100 people were killed. Among the dead were hundreds of civilians, including many women and children. Israel continues to occupy large tracts of land seized during its invasion of the south, which it says is in response to Hezbollah firing rockets at northern Israel.
- The speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri (who is the chair of the Amal movement, which has an alliance with Hezbollah), has reportedly said he has been told by the US ambassador to Lebanon that Washington is trying to ensure the ceasefire in the country lasts longer than 10 days. Another round of peace talks is expected in Washington on Thursday.
Here's what all that means
At 8pm on Monday, sirens rang out across Israel. It wasn't the usual wavering tone, rising and falling, that signifies incoming missile fire.
Instead, it was a steady blast of noise reminding people to pause for a minute's silence to mark Memorial Day, which commemorates fallen Israeli soldiers and victims of terrorism.
After a sustained period of aerial barrages and the relative calm of the past fortnight, it was enough to send a chill up my spine. That was before the quick realisation that it was not a moment to rush to the shelter in the bottom of the ABC bureau in Jerusalem and wait for the noise of explosions from interceptor missiles overhead.
But anxiety about what comes next is growing across the Middle East, as the prospect of positive developments from peace talks between the US and Iran appears to be getting fainter by the hour. There are questions this morning about exactly what will happen in the next day or so: whether senior Iranian officials will show up for negotiations in Pakistan is chief among them.
The US president himself has fuelled some of that, telling The New York Post that his representative, Vice-President JD Vance, was en route to Islamabad, while other outlets were reporting he hadn't boarded Air Force Two for the journey east.
He's also told Bloomberg the ceasefire actually lapses on Wednesday night, Washington time, potentially giving a little bit more time for a deal, but has added he's unlikely to extend the truce.
Pakistani authorities are locking down Islamabad should there be a snap decision to hold the negotiations.
Even if the talks go ahead, there's no guarantee of an outcome — unless there are significant concessions made by Iran on the control it's wielding over the Strait of Hormuz and the US on its blockade of the shipping channel.
But there had been hope that the negotiations would be an opportunity to extend the fragile ceasefire for a few more days or weeks. The clock is ticking before another dangerous moment in this war, now in its eighth week.
And here's the impact on Australia
- ABC interview: Anthony Albanese talks to 7.30 about the prospects for a ceasefire extension and the impact here at home (▶️12m36s).
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
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