Extract from ABC News
People in Tel Aviv, Israel, take part in a protest calling for the end of the war. (AP Photo/Maya Levin)
Hello. ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran here, writing to you from Amman.
It's the end of day 44 of the war, day five of the ceasefire (not including Lebanon), and the day after the first round of talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad.
Here's what you need to know today:
- US President Donald Trump has announced his country will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in response to failed talks with Iran in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad on Saturday. In a post on his Truth Social platform, he labelled Iran's actions in the vital shipping channel as "extortion". He later told Fox News it would take "a little time" to enforce the blockade.
- That's all happened despite Mr Trump saying the talks in Islamabad had been "very friendly" in the end. But he said the regime in Tehran had refused to give assurances about not pursuing nuclear weapons, which remained the key sticking point.
- Earlier, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, had posted on social media platform X that his country had the "necessary good faith and will" but lacked trust in the United States during the negotiations. He later told state media, in response to Mr Trump's latest comments, that "if you fight, we will fight, and if you come forward with logic, we will deal with logic". The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would view any military vessels approaching the strait as a breach of the ceasefire, which would be dealt with harshly.
- Saudi Arabia announced its East-West pipeline, which allows it to pump oil to the Red Sea and effectively avoid the congestion in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, had returned to full capacity after an earlier Iranian strike.
- Iran has been demanding that the regional ceasefire include Lebanon. Israel is continuing its bombardment of the country, attacking claimed Hezbollah targets. But the civilian death toll continues to rise. Local health authorities have said more than 1,500 people have been killed in the last six weeks, including 130 children. In a provocative move, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu entered southern Lebanon along with senior members of the IDF for a briefing on the situation there.
Here's what all that means
In his first public comments since the peace talks in Pakistan, Mr Trump has once again turned the dial back to escalation with Iran. Although, the US would argue it's Iran fanning those flames by failing to uphold its side of this grand bargain.
In a Truth Social-Fox News one-two hit, the US president announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in protest over Tehran's refusal to release its chokehold on the shipping lane — a key condition of the ceasefire.
In the hours after the marathon negotiations ended without a deal, there was fevered speculation about what would come next.
Anyone who had been expecting a sudden agreement after one round of talks on day four of a fortnight ceasefire may have been dreaming, but there had been hope — or, at the very least, fatigue at the prospect of a return to war.
Israeli media started quickly publishing the views of officials within the Netanyahu government and the country's defence establishment, pleased to see the US had refused to yield in the talks.
Newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported Israel was satisfied that the Trump administration seemed to prefer no deal over a bad deal with Iran.
Now, the US president argues intensifying military activity again is the bait required to get that agreement. Iran said it would look at any military action near the strait as a breach of the ceasefire, and respond accordingly.
Israel has put its military on high alert, in the event the war erupts once more.
The kicker here is the impact this blockade, however long it lasts and whichever way it plays out, will have on global markets.
The US president, the self-proclaimed expert on sealing deals (remember his book, The Art of the Deal?), is acutely attuned to that. He watches the markets and he sees how decisions spook traders.
A blockade isn't going to help bring oil prices down. Mr Trump himself already conceded that on Fox News. It also isn't going to help with pressure on fuel stockpiles around the world.
That makes Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's scheduled visit Malaysia and Brunei this week to try to get guarantees on ships delivering fuel to Australia all the more pressing.
A blockade, if responded to with military force by Iran, could lead to further strikes on oil and energy infrastructure across the Gulf region — timely, given Saudi Arabia announced its East-West pipeline had just returned to full capacity after an earlier Iranian attack.
The pipeline allows Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, to avoid shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz and to dispatch its liquid gold through the Red Sea instead.
All of this shows how far apart the US and Iran remain in these negotiations.
There was an editorial cartoon in the Sunday edition of British newspaper The Times by artist Ella Baron that caught my eye in the hours after the Islamabad talks failed to yield an immediate deal.
US Vice-President JD Vance could be seen holding playing cards — four Kings, all featuring Mr Trump. He boldly declared: "We have all the cards."
Across from him, the Iranian delegation was playing chess. A man, likely the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mr Ghalibaf, announced "checkmate".
In the background, peering out from behind a US flag, and not at the table for the talks, was Mr Netanyahu. He was throwing darts through the middle of the talks.
It seemed to encapsulate the tenor of the negotiations in the Pakistani capital over the weekend.
Two countries playing very different games, all while another player continues to interject from the side — specifically, Israel's strikes on Lebanon, destabilising the fragile, relative peace that lingers uncomfortably over the region.
The rest of the world will be watching whether they can agree on the rules and, once more, be brought back from the brink.
And this is the impact on Australia
- In case you missed it: The pain caused by the Iran war is not over. The hard stuff is only just beginning. And it's going to get bumpy, testing the nation's resilience and its political leadership. Analysis from ABC political editor Jacob Greber.
And here's how to stay up to date:
You can keep track of the latest updates from Iran and around the world throughout the day via our live blog.
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
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