Extract from ABC News
An Israeli military vehicle drives in Lebanon, as seen from the Israeli side of the border. (Reuters: Shir Torem)
Hi, I'm ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran, and I'm in Jerusalem. From today, I'll be writing a weekly update on what's been going on in the Middle East war and what to look for in the days ahead.
It’s the end of:
- day 58 of the war
- day 19 of the ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran (which has been extended indefinitely)
- day 10 of the ceasefire in Lebanon
- day 14 of the US blockade of Iran.
Here's what you should know now:
- Israeli strikes hit parts of southern Lebanon on Sunday, with displacement warnings issued for villages north of the Litani River, deeper into Lebanese territory than the area Israel seized and occupied during its invasion last month. Vision shared on social media showed the aftermath of large explosions, and heavy traffic as people tried to leave the area.
- A ceasefire is technically in place in Lebanon, and last week Donald Trump announced it had been extended by three weeks. Despite that, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Hezbollah of breaching the truce by attacking Israeli forces. Hezbollah has insisted Israel is the aggressor, and criticised negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese state as failed diplomacy.
- There’s little sign of progress on a second round of negotiations between the US and Iran, after Donald Trump cancelled a trip to Pakistan (which is playing mediator) by his senior advisors Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He accused Iran of being in disarray, with a fractured leadership. US military cargo planes, probably carrying all the equipment needed to get a high-powered delegation into town safely, were seen leaving.
- But Iranian state media says the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi has now returned to Islamabad. He was there over the weekend, before going to Oman for further talks. He had been expected to move on to Moscow. Neither the US nor Iran has shown any sign of moving on key issues, such as control of the Strait of Hormuz or the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Here's what to watch in the days ahead:
You might be wondering why we keep using the term "ceasefire" when describing the situation in Lebanon, particularly in light of the ongoing Israeli and Hezbollah attacks there. It's an important question.
In terms of defining a "ceasefire", the word itself is pretty self-explanatory: you stop firing.
But the recent development shows how fraught the situation on the ground in southern Lebanon is, and how there is actually a long way to go to achieving some sort of relative peace in the area — however much US President Donald Trump might want to argue he's fixed the whole thing in a way no-one else ever could.
The initial 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon came about as a result of talks between Israel and Lebanon, brokered by the United States, in the aftermath of the truce between the US and Iran coming into force — talks which many believe Israel was forced into joining by the White House. Mr Trump announced a three-week extension last week, as the second round of talks began.
While the ceasefire was welcomed on the ground from a deeply traumatised population, there were immediate issues:
- Israeli forces had seized territory during their invasion of southern Lebanon, and intended to continue occupying the area
- Hezbollah wasn't a party to the talks between Israel and Lebanon, and criticised the Lebanese state for even pursuing them given Israel's actions
- While the fighting calmed considerably, it didn't stop altogether. Israel continued to fire upon claimed Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah continued to retaliate — or vice versa
- Israel and the Lebanese state have a shared interest in removing Hezbollah. But, along with the US, they're trying to do it without involving Hezbollah
- Hezbollah also shows no interest in talks, and won't give up what it describes as its resistance against Israel
You don't have to go far into the chapters of recent history to see how ceasefires in southern Lebanon play out. In late 2024, Israel and Hezbollah did agree that Hezbollah was meant to pull out of southern Lebanon. It didn't. The Lebanese Army was meant to move into former Hezbollah regions and disarm the group. It didn't.
Israel was meant to withdraw entirely from Lebanese territory. It didn't. Israel was meant to stop attacking targets in southern Lebanon. It didn't, arguing it kept the right to act on perceived threats.
So, the current situation might be another ceasefire in name only.
Israel Hayom, the country’s daily free newspaper bankrolled by Trump backers the Adelson family, cited a senior government source saying there was no military way for Israel to stop Hezbollah.
The source further said that a ceasefire was the only way to stop Hezbollah rocket fire across Israel's northern border, and that contrary to a slew of announcements, the security cabinet never instructed the IDF to eliminate Hezbollah's military power.
It's a fascinating admission amid the loud chest beating at the moment, and it goes to the heart of the crisis.
And here's what I'll be keeping an eye on:
Aside from the war, there was a development in the long-running corruption case against Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel's President Isaac Herzog confirmed he was not ready to consider issuing a pardon to the prime minister, saying efforts should first be exhausted to reach an agreement between the parties outside the courtroom.
One way of interpreting that: Mr Netanyahu has to plead guilty, something he refuses to do, before Mr Herzog will intervene.
It would be highly unlikely to see any shift in that position from the prime minister, but it could fuel further political debate in Israel — and, perhaps, further pressure from the US president in favour of his good friend Bibi.
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time next week.
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