Extract from ABC News
Mohammed, 8, cries next to the coffin of his father who was killed in an Israeli strike in Lebanon’s coastal city of Sidon. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
G'day. ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran here, writing to you from the Saudi capital Riyadh.
It's day 45 of the war, day six of the ceasefire (except in Lebanon), and day one of the United States's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Here's what you need to know today:
- The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has begun, after Donald Trump accused Iran of "extortion" in the first round of peace talks between the US and Iran. Soon after the blockade came into force, the US president took to his Truth Social platform to say that Iran's navy had been "completely obliterated", then conceded it had some "fast attack ships" still at its disposal. He warned they would be eliminated if they approached US forces.
- The Iranian regime had said any attempt by the US military to block ships that had made it through the strait would be considered "piracy". The country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said any US ships approaching the strait would be viewed as violating the ceasefire. Iran has also said other ports in the Gulf region will be considered legitimate targets if the situation deteriorates further.
- Ship tracking showed at least two ships made it through the strait before the blockade began. Despite Trump's insistence that other countries would join the blockade, some NATO allies, including the UK and France, said they would not take part, instead favouring a mission to keep the strait open when the war was officially over.
- Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, says "full efforts" are still underway to bring an end to the war, even after the first round of talks he hosted in Islamabad failed to yield a breakthrough.
- In Lebanon, the death toll from Israeli strikes has risen to 2,089, with 166 children among them. Israel said it had killed 250 Hezbollah terrorists in the past week alone since it intensified attacks on Lebanon in the hours after the broader Middle East ceasefire was announced. But in making that announcement on Monday, local time, it only named six members of the Iranian-backed militant group it had killed. Israel's ground invasion continued in southern Lebanon, according to the IDF, which said it also encircled the town of Bint Jbeil. It came ahead of talks with Lebanon in Washington on Tuesday, local time.
Here's what all that means
Sitting in Riyadh, with rain, thunder and lightning outside the window, it seems the storm clouds of war across the region are getting darker once more.
But there's a lot of uncertainty about how this blockade announced by the US president will actually change things, particularly because there aren't that many ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. So what will really change?
Certainly, Donald Trump's threats to attack any ship that approaches US Navy vessels could plunge the Middle East back into war.
That's also true of the Iranian counter-threat against American warships and its pledge to target ports throughout the Gulf.
Iran is accusing the US of planning "piracy" on the seas, while the US is accusing Iran of precisely the same thing by charging tolls for safe passage.
Even if this doesn't amount to a return to war, after less than a week of a fragile truce, the ongoing crisis in the strait will have dire consequences across the Middle East and around the world.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is warning a protracted dispute in the Strait of Hormuz could cause a food crisis around the world. Surging fertiliser prices would be just one consequence, making food more expensive and harder to grow.
A long-term dispute could also bring China into the equation. A large amount of China's oil supplies come through the strait. Beijing has been sounding concerned about the war and the shipping constraints, but the more the chokehold on supplies is felt in Asia, the more it will likely exert its influence to try to resolve it.
All the while, Israel is locking in behind Trump. Benjamin Netanyahu says the US blockade is the way to go.
He continues to talk up how much the US and Israel are in lockstep in this war — partly a reflection of being the junior partner in the conflict, but partly for domestic political purposes.
Recent polling in Israel has suggested people aren't happy with the ceasefire in place, however temporary it may be.
And the Israeli prime minister is still prosecuting the need to continue the deadly campaign in Lebanon against what he says are Hezbollah targets, which claims more and more civilian lives by the hour.
Talks between Israel and Lebanon are due to begin in Washington on Tuesday, local time — but Israel is promoting them in terms of seeking the Lebanese state's cooperation to force Iranian-backed Hezbollah to disarm first, and pursuing a ceasefire on that front second.
It reinforces the argument by critics of Israel across the Middle East that it is only pursuing this to try to appease the Trump administration during particularly tense negotiations, rather than achieve a lasting peace to its north.
Although the criticism will not only be directed at the Netanyahu government. Senior Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa told the Associated Press the group won't actually adhere to any deal struck between Israel and Lebanon.
And this is the impact on Australia
- Debunking four myths about Australia's fuel crisis: If you listen to increasingly shrill calls, it is time to rebuild our oil industry. While the sentiments might be well-meant, a few unfortunate facts have been overlooked.
And here's how to stay up to date:
You can keep track of the latest updates from Iran and around the world throughout the day via our live blog.
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
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