Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Wars usually come to an end but technology never sleeps. (Reuters)
As the storm clouds over the Middle East continue to darken, attention understandably has shifted to an escalating war with Iran that is threatening to rupture global energy supplies and plunge the world into recession.
Israel, America's partner in the venture, has expanded hostilities via yet another invasion of Lebanon. That has been countered by Houthi threats to block oil from the Red Sea, which accounts for a further 12 per cent of world supply.
Meanwhile in Europe, Ukraine has knocked out close to 40 per cent of Russia's oil export capacity in a series of drone attacks, severely denting Vladimir Putin's quest to snap up windfall gains from soaring energy prices to finance his increasingly futile quest.
As the world's second biggest oil exporter, that adds to an already alarming spectre of soaring energy costs.
But there are at least some silver linings for an increasingly panicked US president facing crucial mid-term elections later this year.
Donald Trump is facing mid-term elections later this year. (Reuters: Alex Brandon/Pool)
Hardly anyone is talking about Jeffrey Epstein. And the wave of change from artificial intelligence (AI) rolling across the corporate landscape is going largely unnoticed.
Until a little over a month ago, there was barely any other conversation among business leaders.
But, along with the most consequential shift in technology ever faced by humanity, most are now confronted by more immediate issues; the spectre of massive lifts in fuel prices, slowing economic growth and possibly, sharply higher interest rates.
Wars usually come to an end. So too do inflationary episodes and recessions.
Technology, on the other hand, never sleeps.
A new Atlassian headquarters is being built next to Sydney's Central Station. (ABC News: Adam Griffiths)
Tech starts to eat itself
Towering above Central Railway at the grittier end of Sydney's central business district, Atlassian's new digs was meant to make a statement.
Built of timber, cement and glass, the 40-storey tower is the tallest hybrid timber commercial tower in the world; a design that halves the embedded carbon throughout the life of the building from construction to demolition.
Back in 2021, when the company signed up to a 15-year lease on almost the entire structure, the software titan was at the height of its powers, listed on New York's tech-heavy Nasdaq exchange with its shares punching through $US458.
Last week, shares in the Mike Cannon Brooks-run outfit closed 84 per cent below their 2021 peak at just $US68.29, as AI revolutionary forces continued to undermine investor confidence.
Last month, it shed 1,600 jobs, about 10 per cent of its global workforce.
Atlassian is not alone. Block, the US company that bought Australian outfit Afterpay four years ago, sacked almost half its workforce as 4,000 positions were dispensed.
For Australian staff, the sackings came barely a week after an "offsite" meeting on the Victorian coast, where workers partied to celebrate the firm's success.
The growing list of technology-heavy firms, from British Telecom to Wisetech, with Amazon, Microsoft, IBM and a host of others in between laying off workers, highlights the growing impact of artificial intelligence on employment and, in some cases, corporate survival.
When OpenAI released ChatGPT four years ago, many economists were blasé about the potential impacts. But two years later, when it released a version capable of reasoning, attitudes began to shift.
Anthropic's Code Claude can perform complex tasks. (Supplied: Futures Forum)
Investors on Wall Street suddenly had a rude awakening late last year after Anthropic released its AI platform, Code Claude.
Claude can perform in minutes tasks that once took highly experienced software engineers months to complete.
The parents suddenly became victim of the offspring and software specialists found themselves facing an existential threat.
Jobs on the line
Globally, about $US253 billion was invested in AI development in 2024, and the race since then has accelerated.
The benefits, however, have yet to flow through to corporate profits and, according to a new paper from Stanford University's Digital Economy Lab, about 95 per cent of AI pilot programs have failed to deliver any measurable financial impact.
That's not because the technology is found wanting.
"This is the gap between what technology can do and what organisations manage to do with it," the study explains.
Often, it takes decades for the benefits of new technology to surface in broader measures of economic performance, as US economist Robert Solow famously noted back in 1987.
"You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics," he said.
But the impacts of AI already are reshaping the workforce, possibly at a quicker pace than most economists and governments realise.
Late last year, the same lead author of the Stanford study, Erik Brynjolfsson, found that AI integration was hitting entry-level careers, describing young graduates as "canaries in the coal mine".
"Early career workers in AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 16 per cent relative decline in employment, with software developers aged 22 to 25 seeing a nearly 20 per cent drop," he said.
"Some of the labour market disruptions many anticipated are no longer hypothetical."
How prepared are we for the change?
Change is one of the few constants in life. And shifts in technology have been reshaping human existence since the dawn of time.
The agricultural revolution preceded the industrial revolution and reshaped the way we lived, shifting into ever growing urban centres.
There was pain along the way. Not everyone can adapt to change.
Michele Bullock says jobs will change as AI reshapes industries and economies. (AAP Image: Dan Himbrechts)
But many economists such as RBA governor Michele Bullock believe that our past experiences will be repeated with the AI revolution.
"Technological change has always reshaped the labour market, and AI is no exception," she said in a speech last year.
"As AI continues to reshape industries and economies, it is not just the tools and processes that are evolving — it is the very nature of work. While many experts anticipate a net increase in jobs, it is likely to be more nuanced: some roles will be redefined, others might be displaced, and entirely new ones will be created."
There is, however, a difference this time around.
Previously, machines mostly replaced manual labour. Computers and calculators assisted some professions. But this time, machines will be replacing intellectual pursuits and possibly even creative thought.
In law, finance and a myriad other industries, entry-level graduates are no longer required as the mundane jobs they once performed can be farmed out to AI.
What happens when the senior employees are too old to work? Will the machines progressively work their way to the top? Who will support the displaced workforce?
These are questions that, if they can't be answered just yet, at least need to be addressed.
Or, if previous workplace revolutions are anything to go by, we could end up with even greater wealth and earnings inequality.
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