Analysis
During a visit to Greece last Tuesday, US President Barack Obama had a warning for the world.
And there are specific reasons why Ms Le Pen may be on to something here.
Firstly, the French presidential election is only five months away.
The campaign is already in full swing and within both major parties — Les Republicains on the conservative side, and the Parti Socialiste on the left — there are bitter internal divisions.
Les Republicains, which is holding the first round of its primary, have ex-prime ministers: 71-year-old Alain Juppe, 62-year-old Francois Fillon and ex-president 61-year-old Nicolas Sarkozy, fighting to become their candidate.
The polls currently give Mr Juppe a lead over the other two, but Mr Fillon is gaining ground, partly because he is the "cleaner-looking" candidate.
When Mr Sarkozy entered the Elysee Palace in 2007, his supporters thought he would be the solution to the country's economic woes.
Five years later, and after only one term, he was soundly beaten by socialist Francois Hollande and is still, to this day, directly or indirectly involved in ten court cases including allegations the financing of his 2012 campaign went over the legal limit by almost $32 million.
Neither possess a perfect resume to build public trust.
Instead, their record is assisting Ms Le Pen, who promotes herself as "anti-establishment".
On the Left, the socialists are in many ways worse off than their conservative opponents.
There is no clear champion to represent them and they are crippled with factionalism.
The Socialist Party is holding its primary at the end of January and Mr Hollande, the 62-year-old current President, is yet to declare whether he will run again.
The reason for his indecision may lie in his poor approval rating, which, at 15 per cent, is the worst ever for any president of the Fifth Republic of France, which came into being 58 years ago.
To make matters worse for Mr Hollande, his ex-finance minister, Emmanuel Macron, announced on Wednesday he would be running for president under the banner of his newly-created party En Marche!.
His popularity stands at 33 per cent.
And then there are half a dozen candidates from other leftist parties who will also drain the left-wing vote in the presidential election.
The unemployment rate has stayed stable at 10 per cent over the past five years, and the huge deficit of the Securite Sociale — the French equivalent of Medicare — is finally on the verge of being tamed after decades of struggle.
Like in Britain and the United States, it seems that no matter what the Government and the President do now, the trust in the elite and the so-called "establishment" will keep getting weaker the closer we get to election day.
Ms Le Pen wants France to abandon the Euro. A preposterous idea
only a few months ago, but now, after the success of Brexit, no longer
so improbable in France.
The traumatising terrorist attacks of the past year — 129 people died in the Bataclan attack last November in Paris and 84 died in Nice in July when a truck sped through crowds celebrating Bastille Day — and the constant fear of further strikes, are also making the nationalistic and "zero tolerance" messages of Ms Le Pen's National Front more and more popular.
Then there is the massive refugee crisis in Europe, with Le Pen supporters and sympathisers arguing the authorities do not really know how to deal with the issue.
The recent destruction of the Jungle in Calais and the relocation of the 7,000 asylum seekers who lived in the makeshift camp to other parts of France are also fuelling the National Front idea that the country is being invaded and that immigration in general should be drastically reduced.
The incoming Trump administration is already indirectly offering her its support.
Steve Bannon, Mr Trump's newly appointed chief strategist and a figurehead of the alt-right movement that thrives on ethnocentricity and nationalism, has openly declared he is a big fan of Ms Le Pen.
On Wednesday, Ms Le Pen unveiled her campaign logo: a blue rose with the word "president".
The rose is the traditional emblem of the Socialist Party and the colour blue that of the Conservative party.
Ms Le Pen's thirst for respectability is also a way to finally put behind her the party's troubled history, particularly those years when her estranged father Jean-Marie Le Pen was at its helm and declared the Nazi regime's gas chambers were "a detail in the history of mankind".
In the 2002 presidential election, Mr Le Pen shocked the world by making it to the second round to face Jacques Chirac, the incumbent president, in the final showdown.
Mr Chirac won by a landslide that year.
But the world is a very different place today. Ms Le Pen is predicted to go through the first round too, next April.
This time, the outcome could well be different.
Updated
Photo:
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front is riding high in the polls. (Reuters: Jean-Paul Pelissier)
After Donald Trump's recent victory in the United
States' election, and Brexit in the United Kingdom, attention is now
turning to the possibility of other unexpected results just over the
horizon.
In Europe, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front is
riding high in the polls and could surprise everyone in the presidential
election being held next April in France.During a visit to Greece last Tuesday, US President Barack Obama had a warning for the world.
"We are going to have to guard against a rise in a crude sort of nationalism or ethnic identity or tribalism that is built around an 'us' and a 'them'," Mr Obama said.What the President was in part alluding to was the rise of the far right in Europe.
Movements hoping to be next surprise winner
Emboldened by the Brexit vote in the UK and Mr Trump's win in the US, movements like Geert Wilders' Party For Freedom in the Netherlands, Frauke Petry's Alternative for Germany and Ms Le Pen's National Front in France are all hoping to become the next surprise winner.
Firstly, the French presidential election is only five months away.
The campaign is already in full swing and within both major parties — Les Republicains on the conservative side, and the Parti Socialiste on the left — there are bitter internal divisions.
Les Republicains, which is holding the first round of its primary, have ex-prime ministers: 71-year-old Alain Juppe, 62-year-old Francois Fillon and ex-president 61-year-old Nicolas Sarkozy, fighting to become their candidate.
The polls currently give Mr Juppe a lead over the other two, but Mr Fillon is gaining ground, partly because he is the "cleaner-looking" candidate.
When Mr Sarkozy entered the Elysee Palace in 2007, his supporters thought he would be the solution to the country's economic woes.
Five years later, and after only one term, he was soundly beaten by socialist Francois Hollande and is still, to this day, directly or indirectly involved in ten court cases including allegations the financing of his 2012 campaign went over the legal limit by almost $32 million.
Photo:
Nicolas Sarkozy was soundly beaten by socialist Francois Hollande after only one term. (Reuters: Eric Gaillard)
In 2004, Mr Juppe himself was condemned to a 14-month
suspended sentence and one year of ineligibility to hold public office
for abusing his position as an elected official.Neither possess a perfect resume to build public trust.
Instead, their record is assisting Ms Le Pen, who promotes herself as "anti-establishment".
On the Left, the socialists are in many ways worse off than their conservative opponents.
There is no clear champion to represent them and they are crippled with factionalism.
The Socialist Party is holding its primary at the end of January and Mr Hollande, the 62-year-old current President, is yet to declare whether he will run again.
The reason for his indecision may lie in his poor approval rating, which, at 15 per cent, is the worst ever for any president of the Fifth Republic of France, which came into being 58 years ago.
To make matters worse for Mr Hollande, his ex-finance minister, Emmanuel Macron, announced on Wednesday he would be running for president under the banner of his newly-created party En Marche!.
His popularity stands at 33 per cent.
And then there are half a dozen candidates from other leftist parties who will also drain the left-wing vote in the presidential election.
Trust in the elite and establishment is weak
Secondly, the overwhelming perception in France is people are worse off economically even if, as with the Obama administration, figures are showing that the economy is actually going in the right direction.The unemployment rate has stayed stable at 10 per cent over the past five years, and the huge deficit of the Securite Sociale — the French equivalent of Medicare — is finally on the verge of being tamed after decades of struggle.
Like in Britain and the United States, it seems that no matter what the Government and the President do now, the trust in the elite and the so-called "establishment" will keep getting weaker the closer we get to election day.
The traumatising terrorist attacks of the past year — 129 people died in the Bataclan attack last November in Paris and 84 died in Nice in July when a truck sped through crowds celebrating Bastille Day — and the constant fear of further strikes, are also making the nationalistic and "zero tolerance" messages of Ms Le Pen's National Front more and more popular.
Then there is the massive refugee crisis in Europe, with Le Pen supporters and sympathisers arguing the authorities do not really know how to deal with the issue.
The recent destruction of the Jungle in Calais and the relocation of the 7,000 asylum seekers who lived in the makeshift camp to other parts of France are also fuelling the National Front idea that the country is being invaded and that immigration in general should be drastically reduced.
Trump's chief strategist a fan of Le Pen
And thirdly, Ms Le Pen is steadily rising in the polls.The incoming Trump administration is already indirectly offering her its support.
Steve Bannon, Mr Trump's newly appointed chief strategist and a figurehead of the alt-right movement that thrives on ethnocentricity and nationalism, has openly declared he is a big fan of Ms Le Pen.
On Wednesday, Ms Le Pen unveiled her campaign logo: a blue rose with the word "president".
The rose is the traditional emblem of the Socialist Party and the colour blue that of the Conservative party.
Photo:
National Front's former leader and Ms Le Pen's estranged father Jean-Marie. (AFP: Alain Jocard)
It is a way for her to reinforce the idea the
National Front is now one of the main players in the political arena, a
notion confirmed by victories in recent elections.Ms Le Pen's thirst for respectability is also a way to finally put behind her the party's troubled history, particularly those years when her estranged father Jean-Marie Le Pen was at its helm and declared the Nazi regime's gas chambers were "a detail in the history of mankind".
In the 2002 presidential election, Mr Le Pen shocked the world by making it to the second round to face Jacques Chirac, the incumbent president, in the final showdown.
Mr Chirac won by a landslide that year.
But the world is a very different place today. Ms Le Pen is predicted to go through the first round too, next April.
This time, the outcome could well be different.
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