Drought

‘This is not good news,’ Bureau of Meteorology says, warning drought conditions could get worse
Guardian staff

Rain clouds forming outside the regional NSW town of Harden.
El Niño likely on the way: Despite recent rain in some areas, much of southern Australia remains in drought and can expect a hot dry summer. Photograph: Perry Duffin/AAP

Heatwaves and bushfires are predicted in southern Australia thanks to a 70% chance of El Niño weather conditions, the Bureau of Meteorology has warned. Although cyclones may ease up in the north by the end of the year, the outlook for drought-hit areas is not good, according to the bureau.
“Between the [above average] temperature and the lack of rainfall, this is not good news,” climatologist Robyn Duell said. “This outlook on the back of such little rainfall and dry conditions makes it such a worry for people.”
Australia had endured its driest September since rainfall records began in 1900, Duell said.
Despite rain in some areas in the past week, most of New South Wales and Queensland remain bone-dry. Drought conditions are worsening in parts of Victoria, where farmers are struggling to save their crops.
NSW farmers have been hit hard by drought: 100% of the state is drought-declared, 34.3% is classed as drought-affected, 48.4% is in drought and 16.7% is in severe drought.

Drought map of NSW
Drought map of NSW showing just 0.4% of the state is classed as non-drought and 0.3% is recovering. The remainder is either drought-affected or in drought. Photograph: NSW Department of Primary Industries
Close to 60% of Queensland is in drought, and parts of the state have been dry for the past seven years. Farmers in drought-declared areas are eligible for relief payments and support services.

Drought map from 18 September showing 58.1% of Queensland is in drought.
Drought map from 18 September showing 58.1% of Queensland is in drought. Photograph: The Long Paddock, Queensland government
An El Niño is detected by a sustained fall in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to below –7. Sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
The 30-day moving average for the Southern Oscillation Index
 Photograph: Bureau of Meteorology

“Any given year there is a risk because El Niño is a normal part of our climate system. We get an El Niño on average every two to five years,” Duell told the ABC.
“That puts the risk at any given year at about a 25% chance. At the moment we’re looking at around a 70% chance.
“This is absolutely not the type of outlook I think that many people would be hoping to hear.”
The bureau outlook also noted that the the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another key climate indicator, was trending positive, further contributing to the dry conditions.
A positive IOD event typically reduces spring rainfall in central and southern Australia and can exacerbate any potential El Niño-driven rainfall deficiencies.