Extract from ABC News
Analysis
The momentum for change on the treatment of women is far bigger than politics, but the political dimension of this crisis facing the government cannot be ignored.
The polls give some indication of how voters view Scott Morrison, but the mood within the Liberal Party is also worth considering. It's undeniably shifted in recent weeks.
The Prime Minister's leadership is safe, according to his colleagues, and some are more forgiving of his "missteps" than others, but damage has been done and Morrison's standing internally has been diminished. The view this Prime Minister has some sort of infallible political judgement, having delivered a "miracle" election victory, is well and truly gone.
The link has been drawn between Morrison's mishandling of the Black Summer bushfires and the past month's allegations of rape, harassment and sexism. Both required human empathy, an ability to read community sentiment and judgement — important traits for a Prime Minister, which more than a few Liberal MPs believe Morrison has now failed to demonstrate in two separate political crises.
Recent Australian experience would suggest this would normally lead, at the very least, to leadership chatter. Just ask Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott or Malcolm Turnbull.
That's not happening here and certainly not in the midst of a pandemic. The party remains loyal to Morrison, as does his deputy Josh Frydenberg; the only viable alternative leader.
Rule changes enacted by Morrison also make it considerably harder to make any change, even if MPs wanted to. Many believe the Prime Minister genuinely wants to drive change in the treatment of women, but even his most ardent supporters struggle to defend some of his behaviour.
A backflip on gender quotas?
The Prime Minister's failed attempt at a reset on Tuesday saw him deliver a mea culpa and a promise of more action to come. Minutes later, jaws dropped as he responded to an uncomfortable question by suggesting the reporter's own media company had equivalent issues to those embroiling the government, citing a complaint of "harassment of a woman in a woman's toilet".
It was factually incorrect, not to mention improper to raise any such confidential complaint so publicly and Morrison later apologised.
Notably, the question from Sky News's Andrew Clennell that so riled the Prime Minister was about his leadership. Clennell had suggested that if this series of problems, including an alleged rape, happened in the corporate world, "your job would probably be in a bit of jeopardy". The suggestion Morrison's job should be in question hit a raw nerve, perhaps.
Some Liberals were also aghast at the sudden re-positioning on gender quotas in that same press conference. In 2018, just weeks into the job, the Prime Minister said quotas were "never something I have supported". He told 7:30's Leigh Sales: "I don't think quotas are a way of removing obstacles."
In 2019, he told an International Women's Day event: "We want to see women rise. But we don't want to see women rise only on the basis of others doing worse." Not exactly a sign he was warming to the idea.
Yet on Tuesday, when asked about quotas, Morrison claimed "my colleagues know that I have been open to that conversation for some time".
Half-steps forward
"It smacks of a man caught in a crisis," said one Liberal MP privately, "throwing principles out because he's got nothing else." Another immediately worried whether his own preselection would be at risk.
Cynicism and self-interest aside, the Prime Minister is right to highlight the Liberal Party's current efforts to increase the number of women in Parliament aren't working.
He's now taken a half-step towards supporting quotas, but being "open" to the idea, rather than either for it or against it is, to use one of Morrison's favourite phrases, having a "bet each way". It signals some nervousness about how his party room and the Liberal Party "base" will react.
Enacting such a change would be difficult in the Liberal Party, given its state divisions call the shots on pre-selections and many senior figures, including some women, have spent a lifetime opposing quotas.
Still, the Prime Minister could afford to take on his own party here as a demonstration of his seriousness, credibility and determination to deliver lasting change.
Big announcements, difficult decisions
Morrison will soon announce the "action" he flagged at Tuesday's press conference. A long-overdue response to the Respect@Work report delivered more than a year ago by the Sex Discrimination Commissioner, more support for women's shelters and funding to fight domestic violence are all expected. Important steps, to be sure.
The politically difficult decisions, however, will be those that require standing up to resistance within the party. Adopting quotas is one such decision. Another, more immediate call, is what to do with the two embattled ministers still on leave — Christian Porter and Linda Reynolds.
Morrison is now expected to keep Reynolds in the ministry, but in a different role. Porter is set to remain Industrial Relations Minister, but lose the title of Attorney-General given the conflicts of interest involved in the first law officer mounting action against the ABC in the Federal Court.
Some on the backbench would prefer the two of them walked away for the good of the government, but keeping them both in a reshuffled ministry is consistent with Morrison's reluctance to sack any front bencher.
He sees loyalty as a two-way street and expects those he's protected to stand by him in return. There are, however, many questions Reynolds and Porter haven't answered and if they stay as ministers, they can't duck these questions forever.
Morrison will also have to explain why he retains confidence in both to remain as ministers and how he's made that judgement. After five weeks of missteps, he can't afford any more.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
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