Extract from ABC News
Russian troops are seen entering Pokrovsk, Ukraine, in a shabby convoy.
In short:
Open source maps appear to show a Russian advance around the city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
Russia claims to have encircled the city, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says forces are holding Russians at bay.
What's next?
An expert says that while Russia can sustain a "war of attrition" in the medium term, Ukraine will need to be able to defend against superior air power as the war goes on.
Drone vision of Ukraine's Pokrovsk as Russia advances.
But recent reports suggest that just over 1,000 residents from a pre-war population of 60,000 remain living in the city, most without reliable sources of food, and with limited power and heating.
As the temperature drops and winter in Ukraine inches closer — the fourth of the war — Russia is trying to tighten its grip on the city while stretched Ukrainian forces fight to defend a frontline more than 1,000 kilometres wide.
Who has control? It depends on who you ask
In recent weeks, both Ukrainian and Russian officials have claimed they have the upper hand in Pokrovsk.
Reuters reported more than half of the city was "a grey area" controlled by neither side; however, it appears Russian troops could be close to cutting off supply routes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been reported in Russian media as saying that Pokrovsk is surrounded by his troops. (Reuters: Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev)
The news agency reported there were at least 11,000 troops in the vicinity, with several thousand in surrounding areas.
Earlier this month, Ukraine sent special forces to the embattled city to deal with what news outlets have described as "an intense assault" from Russia.
In a briefing last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia's assault on the city was aimed at showing "success on the battlefield".
"It is very important for Russia to do everything to really capture Pokrovsk — in any format," he told Ukrainian state media.
"Whether it is going to be Vovchansk [a city four hours north of Pokrovsk], or something else. They need to show success. Then they will be able to … try to return the narrative: 'We told you that we will capture Donbas.'"
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukrainian troops are keeping Russians in Pokrovsk at bay. (Reuters: Alina Smutko)
He also said the situation in Pokrovsk remained difficult, in part because "weather conditions" favoured Russian forces.
War of attrition
Despite ramping up efforts, Russian infantrymen are making very slow progress, in part due to the emergence of drone warfare, said Mark Edele, a historian from the University of Melbourne.
He said progress on the battlefield was typically happening at a "crawling pace".
"The kind of extremely static front lines of World War One have re-emerged. The artillery and the machine gun and mines and entrenchments made it difficult to advance quickly," Professor Edele said.
Professor Mark Edele is a historian who specialises in the Soviet Union and its successor states. (Supplied.)
While tanks allowed forces to gain ground in WWII, he said, the presence of drones on the battlefield has reduced the effectiveness of tanks.
"With drones, you can create very deep kill zones, which tanks simply cannot survive, which means you cannot break through with infantry supported by tanks."
According to Professor Edele, in Pokrovsk and in other battlefields across the country, Russians are advancing with very small groups — sometimes as small as three soldiers — staying undetected as they move in to attack Ukrainian defenders.
It is estimated more than 400,00 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of the war in February 2022. (Reuters: Inna Varenytsia)
Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia research fellow at American thinktank The Institute for the Study of War, believes it is likely Russian forces will "close the pocket" between the cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad — but it is unclear how long it will take.
"Russian forces do have a significant manpower advantage in the sector," she said.
The Institute for the Study of War publishes maps that use geo-spatial data to try and show how the war is advancing.
Its most recent update on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area shows counterattacks by Ukrainian forces within the city and on its western outskirts to prevent further advances by Russian troops to the south as they work to encircle the city.
Kateryna Stepanenko from the Institute for the Study of War says large numbers of Russian troops are stationed in the region around Pokrovsk. (Suppled: Institute for the Study of War.)
It is unclear how many Ukrainian troops are fighting in the city, or how many Russian soldiers are in Pokrovsk itself, but Mr Zelenskyy claimed there were about 300 Russians in the city, with constant assaults underway.
Russian state-funded media outlets have reported that Ukraine is losing control of the city and that Russian troops are advancing northward.
An industrial heartland in ruin
Pokrovsk is considered the gateway to Donbas and the key to allowing Russia to capture the rest of the region.
This map shows the Russian advance in Pokrovsk.
It is considered a major strategic hub with road and rail junctions that have served as supply routes for the Ukrainian military since the beginning of the war.
It is also coveted by President Vladimir Putin because it has a large Russian-speaking minority, Professor Edele said.
"When it became clear that the takeover of all of Ukraine was a military impossibility, they instead focused on the easier parts where they could mount a case about liberating the Russian minority," he said.
Reconnaissance and "first person view" drones have been instrumental in fighting across Ukraine. (Reuters:Stringer)
He said the catch would be, however, that if Russia did take the Donbas, it would have to rebuild the destroyed industrial region "almost from the ground up", which would be extremely costly.
Professor Edele said if the city did fall, it would give Russia a new "jumping off" point into other major cities in the Donbas — such as Myrnohrad, Selydove and Kurakhove.
The city of Pokrovsk used to be home to about 60,000 people, but It's estimated now only around 1,200 residents remain. (Reuters: Anatolii Stepanov)
He said while the fall of Pokrovsk would "probably not be a game changer", it would straighten the frontline.
"Militarily, it's important for Ukraine because they've built a strong fortification belt through this region," he said.
"Giving that up would mean they would have to re-establish something similar."
Even though the casualties have been "dramatic", with a recent study estimating 1 million Russian soldiers have now been killed or injured, Professor Edele said the country's population was so big and the fact that soldiers were being well paid to fight meant that finding recruits would not be an issue.
"As long as Putin is in place and as long as the income of the Russian state through export of oil and gas cannot be cut off, they can sustain the war effort," he said.
Iryna Kovtuenenko's home in Pokrovsk was damaged by shelling. She left the city in 2022 and has been unable to return. (Reuters: 68th Seperate Jaeger Brigade Oleska Dovbush)
Many residents displaced from Pokrovsk have fled to other areas of Ukraine.
Iryna Kovtunenko, 31, who moved to Dnipro, south-east of Kyiv, after fleeing the city in 2022, told Reuters she despairs about the current situation.
Apartment buildings in Pokrovsk have been damaged by shelling in battles to try to gain control of the city. (Reuters: Anatolii Stepanov)
"Where should I come back? There's no place to come back to. I don't have an apartment there anymore," she said.
"Everything is ruined. If I could turn back the time, and everything was good there, and I was asked if I wanted to go back home, I would say 'yes.'"
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