Extract from The Guardian
Now an agreement has been struck between China and the US on carbon emissions, we can be optimistic about the coming year
2014 was the year when climate diplomacy got back on track. It’s a
steep track, and we’re moving way too slowly, but as it’s the season of
goodwill let’s accentuate the positive.
The biggest news of the year was the bilateral agreement between China and the USA, in which the US committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below its 2005 levels by 2025, and in return China agreed to peak its own CO2 emissions by 2030 and increase the proportion of its non-fossil energy to 20%. The details merit a lot of careful consideration. Has the US really made a significant new offer, or just recycled their existing direction of travel into a vague commitment? Should we praise China for committing to build more clean energy than any other nation, or condemn it for allowing emissions to keep rising for another decade?
The most important part of this agreement is its symbolism. The over-simplified explanation for the failure of the international process has always been a clash between these two giants. If they can present a united front then that deadlock is broken and smaller players trying to block an agreement will no longer be able to hide.
The week after that agreement was announced, we had a theatrical display of political symbolism at the G20 summit in Australia as world leaders lined up to give Australian prime minister Tony Abbott’s government a slap on the wrist for its anti-science obstructionism. Meanwhile Europe, despite its own troubles, has managed to maintain a climate leadership role with new 2030 targets which, though flawed, keep the continent just ahead of the game on cutting carbon.
As we head into 2015 things are finally starting to move forward. The contribution made by ongoing advances in solar photovoltaics and other clean technologies, heavily backed by China and Germany, should not be overlooked. At the time of writing, 2014 was the hottest year on record. Though this is of only minor significance to climate science, it provides the right sort of backdrop to give politicians a little extra confidence to act.
Aligned with this are progressive moves from some major figures in the worlds of business and local and regional government, who are making commitments to 100% renewable energy. They are making the slow pace of international negotiations look more and more out of step with what’s happening on the ground. The increasing troubles of the oil industry – even if oil is getting cheaper – do little to enhance their reputation as guardians of the future.
The main reason for all this climate related activity is, of course, Paris 2015. The meeting in Paris next December could be the next Copenhagen: a bitter disappointment which costs us dearly in both money and morale. But you don’t get the opportunity to be that big a disappointment without some fairly serious optimism too, and Paris is managing to generate a lot more hope than cynicism so far.
Is it possible that by this time next year climate change will finally have been addressed with the sort of urgency and seriousness it deserves? Probably not, but it might at last be time for some Churchillian language about ends and beginnings as our leaders start to actually lead on this fundamental issue.
The climate denial lobby and its fossil fuel funders will be even more focused in the coming months. For us this might just be the end of the beginning. For them it’s the beginning of the end.
Once the world starts setting hard limits on emissions, all the business plans of all the oil majors in the world become obsolete, wishful thinking and the global economy starts adjusting to a low-carbon future in earnest. From that day forward fossil fuels go into permanent retreat. So expect to see a frenzied last-ditch defence of the fossil fuel economy, with climate science under greater attack than ever before. With trillions of dollars at stake, don’t expect a clean fight. Happy new year.
John Sauven is executive director of Greenpeace UK
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The biggest news of the year was the bilateral agreement between China and the USA, in which the US committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below its 2005 levels by 2025, and in return China agreed to peak its own CO2 emissions by 2030 and increase the proportion of its non-fossil energy to 20%. The details merit a lot of careful consideration. Has the US really made a significant new offer, or just recycled their existing direction of travel into a vague commitment? Should we praise China for committing to build more clean energy than any other nation, or condemn it for allowing emissions to keep rising for another decade?
The most important part of this agreement is its symbolism. The over-simplified explanation for the failure of the international process has always been a clash between these two giants. If they can present a united front then that deadlock is broken and smaller players trying to block an agreement will no longer be able to hide.
The week after that agreement was announced, we had a theatrical display of political symbolism at the G20 summit in Australia as world leaders lined up to give Australian prime minister Tony Abbott’s government a slap on the wrist for its anti-science obstructionism. Meanwhile Europe, despite its own troubles, has managed to maintain a climate leadership role with new 2030 targets which, though flawed, keep the continent just ahead of the game on cutting carbon.
As we head into 2015 things are finally starting to move forward. The contribution made by ongoing advances in solar photovoltaics and other clean technologies, heavily backed by China and Germany, should not be overlooked. At the time of writing, 2014 was the hottest year on record. Though this is of only minor significance to climate science, it provides the right sort of backdrop to give politicians a little extra confidence to act.
Aligned with this are progressive moves from some major figures in the worlds of business and local and regional government, who are making commitments to 100% renewable energy. They are making the slow pace of international negotiations look more and more out of step with what’s happening on the ground. The increasing troubles of the oil industry – even if oil is getting cheaper – do little to enhance their reputation as guardians of the future.
The main reason for all this climate related activity is, of course, Paris 2015. The meeting in Paris next December could be the next Copenhagen: a bitter disappointment which costs us dearly in both money and morale. But you don’t get the opportunity to be that big a disappointment without some fairly serious optimism too, and Paris is managing to generate a lot more hope than cynicism so far.
Is it possible that by this time next year climate change will finally have been addressed with the sort of urgency and seriousness it deserves? Probably not, but it might at last be time for some Churchillian language about ends and beginnings as our leaders start to actually lead on this fundamental issue.
The climate denial lobby and its fossil fuel funders will be even more focused in the coming months. For us this might just be the end of the beginning. For them it’s the beginning of the end.
Once the world starts setting hard limits on emissions, all the business plans of all the oil majors in the world become obsolete, wishful thinking and the global economy starts adjusting to a low-carbon future in earnest. From that day forward fossil fuels go into permanent retreat. So expect to see a frenzied last-ditch defence of the fossil fuel economy, with climate science under greater attack than ever before. With trillions of dollars at stake, don’t expect a clean fight. Happy new year.
John Sauven is executive director of Greenpeace UK
Read more stories like this:
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