Analysis
Updated
The Prime Minister wants the nation to know he gets it. Amid this horror bushfire season, there's a need for change.
"We have to prepare for the new normal," Scott Morrison said in his most in-depth interview on the crisis. He spoke of the need for a "historic change".
This is exactly the language his many critics have been looking for.
The only problem is the "new normal" he's talking about isn't in relation to climate change.
The "historic change" being referred to by the Prime Minister relates to when and how Defence resources are deployed in natural disasters.
This is still important stuff. Making it easier to send in troops, ships and helicopters to fight fires and save lives would be a worthy improvement after this disaster.
And given the constitutional complexity around deploying Defence assets on state land, it's the very thing a royal commission may indeed need to work through.
But the "historic change" many were looking for today, including some in Mr Morrison's own party room, was a shift in the Government's climate policies.
There was some movement here, but not the giant leap being demanded.
In his ABC interview, the Prime Minister spoke of his Government's climate policies continuing to "evolve". This was a significant word, but also deliberately vague.
Asked three times, the Prime Minister refused to rule out increasing Australia's target to reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030 under the Paris Agreement.
His office later played this down and at a subsequent press conference, Mr Morrison himself said the Government had already "set the target" and would be sticking with its election policies.
This language is still careful and leaves the door slightly ajar if the Government's position becomes politically unsustainable.
But right now there is no intention to set a more ambitious target. Instead the emphasis is on "meeting and beating" the existing target.
The sensitivity around the target underscores how delicate this issue remains within the Coalition.
Some conservative backbenchers continue to dismiss links between this bushfire season and climate change. Just ask Malcolm Turnbull what happens to a leader who ventures too far on this issue.
Indeed, the Prime Minister made sure to repeat the well-worn lines about tackling emissions "without a carbon tax, without putting up electricity prices and without shutting down traditional industries upon which regional Australians depend for their very livelihood".
The carry-over credit conundrum
These concerns over jobs and power prices are very real. The Coalition has played them up to great political success over many years.The big question is whether the summer inferno has changed minds and whether the "quiet Australians" now believe the cost of inaction outweighs the cost of ambitious action.
Where there is likely to be a change is in relation to the use of so-called "Kyoto carry-over credits".
These are credits Australia earned for over-achieving in the previous Kyoto agreement. Using these credits towards the Paris target significantly reduces the amount of heavy lifting required to reach the 2030 goal.
Australia is one of only a handful of countries willing to use these credits and came under heavy criticism for this approach at the recent climate summit in Madrid.
Some Liberals privately recognise it's a terrible look for Australia to be the international laggard on climate policy right now and they want the Government to ditch these credits altogether.
In his ABC interview, the Prime Minister gave some ground. He suggested Australia may reach a position "where we don't need them". He's not ditching them yet, but may be moving towards that position.
Perhaps scarred by the experience of resisting the banking inquiry for so long, Mr Morrison announced he would take to Cabinet a proposal for a royal commission into the bushfires.
It would look at the operational response, the interaction between state firefighting authorities and Defence as well as climate change.
This may prove to be too wide a remit for any single inquiry, but at least the Prime Minister is signalling a willingness to have his own climate policies examined. This presents a risk, but it's one he can't avoid.
Specifically, Mr Morrison wants the inquiry to examine three areas of climate policy: emissions, resilience and mitigation.
He would much prefer the debate focused on resilience and mitigation, nominating land clearing and dam construction as areas ripe for improvement.
These are worthy areas to examine, but largely relate to the symptoms of climate change. It's just as important, if not more-so, to confront the cause.
There's still no sign of any "historic change" from Mr Morrison on that front.
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