Extract from ABC News
Six Russian balloons were detected over Kyiv and most were shot down after being engaged by air defences, the Ukrainian capital's military administration says.
Key points:
- Ukraine says Russia could be using balloons to preserve its stock of reconnaissance drones
- Research suggests Russia lost about half of its best tanks since invading Ukraine
- Russia says its forces broke through two fortified Ukrainian defence lines on the eastern front
It said the balloons may have been carrying corner reflectors and reconnaissance equipment but did not specify when they flew over the capital, although air alerts were issued in Kyiv on Wednesday.
"According to information that is now being clarified, these were balloons that move in the air under the propulsion of wind," the military administration wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
"The purpose of launching the balloons was possibly to detect and exhaust our air defences."
Shortly before the announcement, Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said Russia — which invaded Ukraine in February last year — could be using balloons in a new drive to preserve its stocks of reconnaissance drones.
"Reconnaissance drones [such as] the Orlan-10 are now being used more sparingly [by Russia], and they thought, 'Why don't we use these balloons?' So they are using them," Mr Ihnat told Ukrainian television.
He later confirmed that air raid sirens had blared in the capital on Wednesday because of balloons flying overhead.
Russia did not immediately comment on the reports of balloons over Kyiv.
Russia loses tank battle badly
Russia has lost around half its best tanks in the year since it invaded Ukraine and is struggling to replace them, a leading research centre said on Wednesday, as Kyiv prepares to take delivery of modern battle tanks from the West.
However, Moscow has preserved its air force largely intact and may deploy it more actively in the next phase of the war, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.
In its annual Military Balance report, a key reference tool for defence experts, the IISS said loss rates for some of Russia's most-modern classes of tank were as high as 50 per cent, forcing it to rely on older, Soviet-era models.
"They're producing and reactivating nowhere near enough to compensate for those loss rates. Their current armoured fleet at the front is about half the size it was at the start of the war," research fellow at the IISS Henry Boyd told Reuters.
He estimated Russia's tank losses at between 2,000 and 2,300, and Ukraine's at up to 700.
Ukraine has secured promises of around 100 modern, Western tanks, including the US Abrams, the German Leopard and the British Challenger, whose capabilities far exceed the older Russian models.
"That may well then translate through to less-aggressive and less-confident [Russian] tank actions as crews are more concerned about the threat level presented to them," Mr Boyd said.
IISS aerospace expert Douglas Barrie said Russia had preserved its air force mostly unscathed, operating at a distance because of effective Ukrainian air defences and an undersupply of tactical short-range air-to-surface missiles.
However, he said, Russia may look to use air power more actively, and potentially take more risks to hit any concentrations of Ukrainian forces on the ground.
"One of the challenges from a Ukrainian perspective is if they do either have to repel a significant Russian ground force or mass their own forces … you leave yourself vulnerable to air attack. At that point, the Russians might decide they're going to take greater losses just to inflict yet greater losses on the other side," he said.
'Expect another bloody year'
A year into the war, Russia has been beaten back from much of the territory it initially captured. However, it still partly occupies four regions of south and eastern Ukraine.
Kyiv has been warning for weeks of a looming new Russian offensive.
On Wednesday, Russia said it had broken through two fortified Ukrainian defence lines on the eastern front.
Mr Barrie said Western sanctions were hampering Russia's ability to replenish its stocks of guided weapons that rely on imported microprocessors.
He also said the pace of development of Russia's latest generation of nuclear weapons was slow, despite President Vladimir Putin's boasts about Moscow's capabilities and his repeated veiled threats to resort to nuclear arms to defend what he regards as Russian territory.
Land warfare expert at the ISS Ben Barry said he was sceptical that Russia could make major progress.
"My assessment is it's going to find it difficult to concentrate enough credible and competent force to push the Ukrainians back much," he said, before adding that he expected the war to continue to drag on.
"It's not clear to me that Kyiv has enough combat power to rapidly eject Russian forces … We can expect another bloody year."
Reuters/ABC
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