Saturday 11 February 2023

Vladimir Putin's snub casts doubt on Yevgeny Prigozhin's ploy to use his Wagner Group to shore-up power.

Extract from ABC News

ABC News Homepage

By Jacqueline Howard in London
Posted 
Putin leans forward from where he sits to speak into a microphone on a table, pointing a finger as he does so
Putin is making moves to undermine Prigozhin in an attempt to dampen the skyrocketing notoriety of the Wagner chief.(Sputnik: Mikhail Metzel)

"The boat is rocking … I hope you understand why I have remained silent".

These were the words of Yevgeny Prigozhin – old friend of Putin and head of the Wagner mercenary group – after the Russian president praised his army for their efforts in Soledar.

But it was Wagner, a group of private military contractors, not Putin's forces, that spearheaded the assault that won Russia its first major victory in Ukraine in months.

The fight involved some of the most brutal combat in the conflict so far.

Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Wagner recruits were being used in "wave after wave after wave" of attacks, leading to a high number of deaths.

So much so, the months-long fight for control of the town was often referred to as a "meat grinder".

Black smoke seen rising above area hit by shelling in Soledar.
The frontline at Soledar was described as one of the bloodiest battlefields of the entire war.  (AP: Libkos)

The victory came almost a year into what was, in Putin's eyes, supposed to be a very short war.

Russia rapidly re-strategised as its forces unexpectedly struggled against the Ukrainian defence.

Taking Soledar was hailed as a critical morale boost and win for the Russian forces.

That Putin refused to acknowledge his old friend's achievement points to a delicate state of affairs within the Kremlin, as the president struggles to control the narrative that his war in Ukraine is all going to plan.

A tale of two armies

On January 10, Prigozhin took to social media site Telegram to announce the news that his forces alone had captured the town.

"Wagner units took control of the entire territory of Soledar. A cauldron has been formed in the centre of the city in which urban fighting is going on," Prigozhin said.

"I want to emphasise that no units except for the fighters of the Wagner PMC (private military company) took part in the assault on Soledar."

Looking for confirmation of Prigozhin's remarkable claim that after months his forces had won out in the brutal assault, eyes turned to Putin.

The Kremlin initially denied Wagner's victory, taking the same line as Ukrainian officials that fighting was ongoing.

On January 15, Putin appeared on state television and spoke of the capture of Soledar without mentioning Wagner.

"Everything is developing within the framework of the plan of the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff," he said.

The Russian Ministry of Defence also published a statement to confirm the victory in the town, but not who had led the forces there.

"The liberation of the settlement of Soledar, important for the continuation of successful offensive operations in the Donetsk region, was completed on the evening of January 12," said defence spokesperson Igor Konashenkov.

It then issued a follow-up announcement six hours later recognising Wagner's contribution, but the damage had been done

When approached by journalists for his reaction to the slight, Prigozhin refused to comment.

"These questions, of course, will need answers, but not now. The boat is rocking. I respect your attention, but I hope you understand why I kept silent," he posted to Telegram.

Shaking up the information space

Analysts believe the snub is indicative of deeper tensions bubbling beneath the surface.

In announcing Wagner's victory on social media, Prigozhin flouted the Kremlin's funnel of control over the Russian information space.

"Prigozhin has overpowered the Russian Ministry of Defence's deliberately vague rhetoric, forcing the Russian MoD, and by extension the Kremlin, to end its long-standing policy of refraining from recognizing Wagner and its war efforts," an analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted.

"Prigozhin likely seeks to use the victory in Soledar as a bargaining tool to elevate his authority in Russia."

Prigozhin found his way into Putin's inner circle after impressing him with his work ethic after a meteoric rise from gulag inmate to hotdog vendor to gourmet chef.

Once he was embraced by Putin, Prigozhin was personally catering state events, and made millions in a business contract to feed Russia's army.

Vladimir Putin, George Bush and other guests sit at a round dinner table inside a boat. A man in a suit watches on
Yevgeny Prigozhin serves dinner to Vladimir Putin, then-US president George W Bush and other guests at New Island restaurant in St Petersburg in May 2002.(Kremlin)

But the man born of humble beginnings seems to have aspirations for war hero now in his sights.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin advisor, hailed Prigozhin as such.

"Prigozhin and Wagner are now Russia's national treasure. They are becoming a symbol of victory," he wrote on his blog.

Ed Arnold, a research fellow at UK-based Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, said it's clear Prigozhin is using Wagner to lift his status.

'So we've seen the Wagner group in general go from the pre-war shadowy mercenary outfit that primarily operated in Syria and Africa to being more integrated within the Russian military. And now we're seeing further evolving of an overt and very public separate force led by Yevgeny Prigozhin himself," Mr Arnold said.

"He obviously has a lot of ambition and is using that group to try to achieve that."

Two men - one sporting a black eye - sit at an conference desk, seen through a large W embossed on glass
Prigozhin opened offices for the Wagner Centre in St Petersburg last November.(Reuters: Igor Russak)

But Prigozhin using uncensored media for personal gain comes with sinister consequences.

The longstanding policy of a state-controlled message is vital to Putin's influence over public opinion.

Most Russians are told their army is fighting Nazis in Ukraine and the West is to blame for the conflict.

Critics of Putin who want a victory in Ukraine are tolerated in a way that liberals who are against the war are not.

That doesn't mean right-wing nationalists are left to roam free, instead, in the case of Prigozhin, Putin is enforcing the status quo by undermining him.

Bakhmut fails to back up success

It seems Putin is now retracting responsibility from Wagner as the battle for Bakhmut, the next strategic town after Soledar, stalls.

Reports from the front line suggest the Russian army has replaced the mercenaries.

It's possible the capture of Bakhmut was assigned to Wagner as a follow-up test following the success of Soledar.

"Putin apparently decided to give Prigozhin … a chance to show what they could do with mobilised prisoners," a late-January ISW assessment said.

"Putin appears to have decided to turn away from relying on Prigozhin and his irregular forces."

On Thursday, Prigozhin announced Wagner was suspending its prison-recruitment campaign after a rapid decline in uptakes.

US intelligence believes that Wagner recruited some 40,000 prisoners from Russian jails since it began in mid-2022.

Rows and rows of graves are lined up in a dirt field, with crosses and floral arrangements adorning each one
Hundreds of Wagner recruits have died fighting the war in Ukraine. According to a Reuters investigation in January, many of those buried at this cemetery in southern Russia were convicts recruited by Prigozhin.(Reuters)

The ISW suggests Putin also used Prigozhin's eagerness to prove Wagner's capabilities as an opportunity to focus on training Russia's military for a widely rumoured renewed offensive.

"Prigozhin is, for now, apparently an increasingly spent force in the Kremlin's inner circles," the ISW said.

The Russian offensive seems to be beginning, with analysts noting an increased Russian presence in the Bakhmut area and Luhansk Oblast.

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