Extract from The Guardian
Poor result marks 50th straight Newspoll loss for Coalition and follows new data showing sluggish economic growth
Federal Labor has pulled ahead of the Coalition after a week of rebellions and recriminations within the government, leading 54% to 46% on the two-party preferred measure.
The latest poll, which is the 50th straight loss for the Coalition in the survey, has the Coalition’s primary vote on 36% and Labor’s on 39%, and there was a positive bounce within the margin of error for One Nation, with the rightwing micro party on 7%.
The poor result for the government follows a week where Queensland Nationals sideswiped their leader, Michael McCormack, and the former leader Barnaby Joyce made it known he wanted to return to the top job; Tony Abbott backflipped on his position to withdraw from the Paris accord, and was blasted by Malcolm Turnbull; and Julie Bishop declared she would have beaten the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, had her moderate colleagues backed her for the leadership last year.
In addition to a resurgence of disunity, two senior players, Christopher Pyne and Steve Ciobo, confirmed they would not recontest the coming election, following high-profile moderates Bishop and Kelly O’Dwyer out the door, stoking public perceptions that senior players had written off the Coalition’s re-election chances.The latest poll, which is the 50th straight loss for the Coalition in the survey, has the Coalition’s primary vote on 36% and Labor’s on 39%, and there was a positive bounce within the margin of error for One Nation, with the rightwing micro party on 7%.
The poor result for the government follows a week where Queensland Nationals sideswiped their leader, Michael McCormack, and the former leader Barnaby Joyce made it known he wanted to return to the top job; Tony Abbott backflipped on his position to withdraw from the Paris accord, and was blasted by Malcolm Turnbull; and Julie Bishop declared she would have beaten the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, had her moderate colleagues backed her for the leadership last year.
The prime minister, Scott Morrison, triggered a spate of negative commentary with a taxpayer-funded trip to Christmas Island to provide a backdrop for his continuing attack on Labor’s support for the medical evacuations bill.
New economic data also highlighted risks in the economic outlook. The national accounts showed the economy grew by 2.3% over the year, and just 0.2% for the December quarter – short of the Reserve Bank forecast of 0.6% and market expectations.
Despite the poll confirming Labor would easily win any election held today, Morrison remains ahead of Shorten as preferred prime minister 43% to 36%. In the poll, 43% approve of Morrison’s performance and 45% disapprove, while 36% approve of Shorten’s performance and 51% disapprove.
The Newspoll result is the government’s worst set of numbers in the survey this year. One Guardian Essential poll in 2019, taken just after the final report of the banking royal commission was handed down, had Labor in a stronger position – in front 55% to 45%.
A fortnight ago Labor was in front of the Coalition on the two-party-preferred measure in Guardian Essential 52% to 48%. A new survey is due on Tuesday.
With both sides now in full campaign mode, Morrison will begin the week in western Sydney and Shorten is expected to start the week campaigning on the Gold Coast.
The government is hoping the budget in April, which is expected to include tax cuts and the forecast of a surplus, will strengthen its political position as it heads for an election in May.
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