Coronavirus and human-made climate change are analogous. Their ‘delayed response,’ weeks for Coronavirus and human generations for climate, makes them dangerous, as I noted last week. These lags allow problems to grow before we notice them, making solution difficult.
‘Flattening the curve’ is another analogy. Climate is a bit
more complicated in the sense that there are multiple curves that must
flatten and decline to restore our climate and they have different time
scales.
Methane, shown here is an example (see figure above). We began to
flatten the methane curve in about year 2000, as sources of methane
stabilized. Methane has a finite lifetime in the air, of the order of
10 years, because it is continually removed by reaction with the natural
atmospheric cleanser, the hydroxyl radical (OH).
The flattening was short-lived, because we introduced a new source,
‘fracking,’ and because regional climate changes associated with global
warming increase wetland and permafrost emissions. Human-made methane
sources can be reduced, and, indeed, must be reduced. We can get
methane to decline even as global temperature continues to rise for a
while longer.
With declining methane and declining CO2 emissions, we will
eventually get global temperature to peak and slowly decline. In that
case, amplifying feedbacks can work in the opposite sense, thus
decreasing methane emissions, making it easier to get further decline of
methane amount.
Climate is a solvable problem. We should not frighten children by implying that their world is doomed. Sophie’s Planet aims to clarify the story, by describing the way that I learned it. It is, therefore, necessarily auto-biographical.
I am sending out draft chapters for fact checking. If you are locked
away, need something to read, let me know if you find any flaws. Here
are Chapters 2 &3. Chapter 1 described the generation of my great
grandfather, a carpenter from rural Denmark who pioneered a large farm,
built a good house for himself, his wife and 11 children. What about
the next two generations?
I opened a Twitter account @DrJamesEHansen, (https://twitter.com/drjamesehansen), but will minimize interactions until the book is finished.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/ |
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