Australians may remain hesitant to venture out of their homes or gather in large groups even if the nation's various coronavirus restrictions are eased or lifted, a study has found, leading to fresh concerns for key sectors.
Key points:
- Less than half of people surveyed would be comfortable going to a bar or restaurant immediately after restrictions are lifted
- Bar owners fear the costs of reopening will not be covered unless their venues hit capacity quickly
- About 40 per cent of those surveyed believed it would be more than 12 months before things were more or less back to normal
A new survey of 2,225 people by Vox Pop Labs in collaboration with the ABC has found that only about 1 in 8 Australians would attend a large event even if they could, fewer than 1 in 5 would get on a plane, and only 40 per cent would go to a bar or restaurant.
The survey findings resonate with Dr Anne-Marie Turner, who has found home to be her comfort zone since the crisis hit.
"I guess you know you're not potentially exposing yourself to this virus. You can keep control of your own environment," she says, curled up on the couch on a cold Melbourne day with dog Bella.
The paediatrician had been closely monitoring the spread of the virus overseas early in the year. Close contact with a doctor friend in Hong Kong sparked deep anxiety over the risks for medical staff and the potential to spread the virus to family members.
She also has rheumatoid arthritis, so is at high risk.
"I guess I couldn't get it out of my mind. I was living and breathing it. I was waking up in the middle of the night and not being able to get back to sleep," she says.
Dr Turner has since taken leave from her hospital role and has continued her part-time clinic consulting job by Telehealth. She has been able to regain control of her anxiety by largely isolating at home.
Talk of reopening society and restarting things like football games has reignited a deep worry. She says she's not ready to return to anything resembling normal.
"We love going to restaurants. We love going to movies. We love going to the theatre. We love going to see music performances. I don't think I'll be doing that for a long time."
And despite being a lover of travel, she says she won't even consider going anywhere anytime soon.
Reopening bars, restaurants no simple task
The survey shows that 41 per cent of Australians think it will be more than 12 months before things are "more or less back to normal".
Twenty-two per cent believe it will be six months.
The results pose complex questions for governments as they begin to roll back restrictions, and also for businesses that may be in a position to reopen in an incredibly uncertain environment.
"To get Australians back to work, we have to get Australians back to work in a safe economy. We are trying to find what that safe economy looks like, so we can move towards that," Prime Minister Scott Morrison said, after saying his job now is to get 1 million Australians back to work.
A priority is the hospitality sector, where hundreds of thousands of people have been stood down.
Liam Matthews owns several bars and a music venue in Melbourne. All are closed except one that's doing little more than serving takeaway coffee.
Ramping back up will be expensive, and disastrous if the customers don't come or there's another shutdown.
He say restocking alcohol in the bars alone would cost $100,000 and to recoup that outlay the business would have to be able to operate at full capacity immediately.
"Just jumping in and saying 'OK, next week or in two weeks' time you can open', we would have to get the bars up and running, completely restock them," he says.
The hospitality industry is pushing for venues to be able to reopen with tables 1.5 metres apart and with tracking of patrons, but Mr Matthews is well aware that reopening poses huge risks.
He says if there was a second wave of the virus that shut his business again, it would be for good.
"I think that if we opened up and everything started looking OK but then we were told to shut down again, I think for my actual company that would be when we would look at winding up."
Mixed feelings 'completely normal'
Psychologist Dr Rachael Murrihy, who is also the director of The Kidman Centre in Sydney, says people will face yet another challenging transition when they come out of isolation, and they may have mixed feelings about things previously as simple as going out for a meal or going to a sporting event.
"It's very normal for people to feel two opposing feelings at once," she says.
"You can feel hope and excitement about the fact the social isolation and restrictions are loosening while at the same time feeling fear and apprehension, that's completely normal."
She says it's difficult to predict whether there will be a long-term impact on people's confidence.
"We do know from a major review in The Lancet that the longer people are in quarantine and in social isolation, the greater the effects," she says.
"This is why they are calling coronavirus 'the great psychological experiment' because effectively we don't know what the outcomes are going to be, but we are seeing concerning rises in mental health issues in the population already."
For those struggling with anxiety about going out, it may be a long haul.
Dr Turner says she won't fully relax until there's a vaccine, which could be 12 to 18 months away — or at worst, may never come at all.
"I think I want to feel like we've got some good treatments and really I don't think I'll be feeling safe until we've got a vaccine," she says.
"If there was no vaccine and this virus was still prevalent, yes, I think my lifestyle is going to be quite curtailed long term."
However, she does see an upside.
"I think you start to appreciate the really important things and all the busyness you get caught up in day-to-day doesn't seem quite so important."
For the moment, she's staying home.
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