The
decision this week by much respected MP Mike Kelly to finally pull the
plug on his career representing the people of the NSW seat of
Eden-Monaro, due to ill health, inevitably puts a new time dimension
into politics.
Even the timing of Kelly's decision has been affected by the coronavirus.
Dr
Kelly's long service with the Australian Army has left him with a
terrible medical legacy. Colleagues on all sides of politics were aware
that it had just become too difficult for him to serve in the
parliament.
So his departure had been expected for
some time. He said at an emotional press conference on Thursday that the
final timing had been partly determined by an expectation that the
coronavirus lockdown might be starting to ease soon — which would make
the running of an election a bit easier.
Not just a by-election: a point of reference
But
whatever the technical difficulties of holding a by-election, such a
poll also puts a deadline of sorts, some point of reference on the
immediate horizon, into which all the judgements we make about how our
leaders have responded to the coronavirus — and everything else — are
placed.
These assessments, along with the usual
political sport, have been in something of a state of hibernation or at
least suspended animation, like the economy itself, particularly because
governments at all levels appear to have been making good
evidence-based policy free from most of the usual political games.
The
Prime Minister's personal poll ratings — along with those of other
leaders around the country — have jumped. But the broader political
debate has been notably more muted.
The
significance of a by-election, however, will not just be whether it is
an endorsement, or otherwise, of the way the Morrison Government has
dealt with the crisis.
It's more that a specific
date for the by-election — yet to be announced but expected by many in
Canberra to come in late June — will come a standard mention in stories
about how quickly the economy is deteriorating or improving, how many
people have lost their jobs, what restrictions remain on businesses and
what other decisions have been taken by the Government.
What
makes that important is the gap between the way, inevitably,
governments make decisions, the way they are implemented, and the time
it takes for things to happen.
What can the bellwether seat tell us?
That is particularly true in Eden-Monaro.
When
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese on Friday endorsed Bega Valley Mayor
Kristy McBain to run in the seat for Labor, she observed: "We have
people who are still living in tents and caravans on properties who
haven't been able to receive any meaningful support from the Government
and people who have been left behind in this COVID crisis as well".
Her
comments were a stark reminder that the electorate is still reeling
from the after-effects of the catastrophic bushfire season, even before
the coronavirus came along.
Beyond the people
living in tents is a local economy that was relying on tourism to bounce
back to make up for a disastrous summer season, only to have that hope
wiped out by the virus.
People in Eden-Monaro, rather famously, weren't impressed by Scott Morrison's performance during the bushfires.
They
aren't likely to blame him for the virus. But their perceptions of the
Government will, inevitably, be framed by their experience of life as
the winter settles in. Their prospects remain grim, and the anecdotal
experience of whether they feel they are being aided by Government.
And
just as there are reports that a lot of people are still awaiting
assistance from the bushfires, there was mass confusion this week about
exactly when people would be receiving increased JobSeeker payments, and
corresponding uncertainty about how long exactly those payments would
last.
That's before we even get into the growing
push — that will inevitably come up in the by-election — for the
increase in JobSeeker payments (the first increase in real terms in 25
years) to be made permanent.
Political difficulties lie ahead
This
is just one of the more obvious signs of the difficulty of politics in
the months ahead, not just in Eden-Monaro, but around the country.
The
Prime Minister reported on Friday that 1.5 million Australians are now
on JobSeeker — in line with Treasury estimates that the unemployment
rate will rise to "10 per cent and perhaps beyond".
Given
the high loss of jobs in sectors which face no imminent prospect of
restrictions on social distancing being removed, the prospects for any
huge rebound in employment don't look good in the short term.
The
Government is aware that there is still a slow motion train wreck going
on in the economy as businesses try to sort out the mess left after
both the initial shock of the shutdown, but also the very different
economy that is being crunched and morphed into shape before our eyes.
The
Economist magazine wrote this week of the "90 per cent economy" — a
global economy which will not just be smaller but marked by the fact it
will feel pretty strange.
"In a world where the
office is open but the pub is not, qualitative differences in the way
life feels will be at least as significant as the drop in output", the
magazine said.
"The plight of the pub demonstrates
that the 90 per cent economy will not be something that can be fixed by
fiat. Allowing pubs — and other places of social pleasure — to open
counts for little if people do not want to visit them. Many people will
have to leave the home in order to work, but they may well feel less
comfortable doing so to have a good time."
The
article went on to note how the pandemic has up-ended the norms and
conventions of behaviour of economic agents, for example, tenants who no
longer feel quite so obliged to pay their rent.
It speculated on how innovative an economy could be at a time people can't meet and exchange ideas.
Let this sink in
So
while the Prime Minister says we can't "keep Australia under the
doona", the very agents of activity that drive our economy, along with
others around the world, are changing.
The Prime
Minister also mentioned on Friday that Australia is expecting a 30 per
cent fall in overseas immigration in the 2019-2020 year, on 2018-2019
figures.
In 2020-2021, the forecast is for an 85 per cent fall on 2018-2019 figures.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Sure,
there has been lots of discussion about a new world where people can't
travel very much, and the impact of that on sectors like tourism and the
universities.
But consider the significance of
migration — permanent or temporary — as a driver of economic activity in
Australia in recent decades, notably in the housing sector.
Migration
is a huge, but often unseen driver of our economy. Its absence will be
just one of the significant factors that changes our sense of the
economy, time and events for the foreseeable future.
Laura Tingle is 7.30's chief political correspondent.
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