Extract from ABC News
Analysis
AI opens the door to competition for the tech giants — and the programs can be used by ordinary people. (Unsplash: Solen Feyissa; license)
Talk about unfortunate timing.
Last week, US tech giant Microsoft released a list of jobs likely to be swept aside in the upcoming artificial intelligence storm along with a corresponding list of occupations deemed relatively resilient to the impending onslaught.
While it makes for depressing reading, the list is notable for at least one stark omission.
Despite mass sackings last year, software developers and coding specialists are surprisingly absent, although they're certainly not in the column for those likely to be spared, which includes professions such as dredge operators, pile driver operators, and bridge tenders.
The past few weeks have seen a stark reassessment of AI's impact on the very sector that created it and, in particular, on companies that specialise in software.
Microsoft shares have tanked, off more than 16 per cent, despite reporting relatively strong earnings, and the entire US technology sector — which has driven Wall Street and global stock markets for the past three years — is suddenly lagging the field.
In a world increasingly concerned about bloated stock market valuations, investors have now begun to question whether they'll ever see a return on the stupendous amount of cash that's being thrown at AI.
The uncertainty has led to a series of violent swings on Wall Street and has even infected markets such as Australia, which has only modest exposure to technology, as well as precious metals like gold and silver.
Thursday's plunge was suddenly reversed on Friday, which was repeated here yesterday.
It's also spilled over into Bitcoin, which, apart from facing its own long-term reckoning from the threat of quantum computing, is rapidly degenerating into nothing more than a gambling instrument.
Bitcoin has halved in value from its October peak, capped last week by a series of wild, largely inexplicable price gyrations that have smashed any notion that it can be relied upon as a store of wealth.
The result is a heady mix of extreme volatility on multiple fronts, a worrying trend that could trigger a reassessment of risk and a sizeable stock market correction.
Software as a sinkhole
Almost everyone blames Claude.
In the past few weeks, the AI platform known as Claude and owned by Anthropic has sent real intelligence into a spin.
Amongst investors, the penny has finally dropped about just what the future may hold. And many are backing off or at least rethinking their strategy.
AI may revolutionise the way we live and work. But it could very well lay waste to business empires that themselves only recently overthrew the old analogue world order.
Software, the products that have created vast business empires in the past four decades and employed legions of code-writing geeks, can now be written in an instant by AI.
Tech giant Amazon has announced another 16,000 lay-offs. (Reuters: Damien Eagers)
The implications are huge. Not only does AI open the door to competition, undermining the tech giants' margins, the very same AI programs can now be utilised by ordinary people, with the potential to threaten their existence.
Atlassian has already begun to feel the heat. A year ago, its shares were changing hands at $US322 apiece. They're now below $US95, a drop of more than 70 per cent. Founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has reportedly seen his fortune shrink by $19 billion as a result.
Amazon announced another 16,000 layoffs last week, following the 14,000 it shed last year, while Microsoft laid off 15,000 workers last year.
Atlassian founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has reportedly seen his fortune shrink by $19 billion. (AAP: Bianca De Marchi)
But if investors are concerned, the message has yet to flow through to the tech giants' boardrooms, where there has been no sign of any let-up in the race towards AI domination.
Having already thrown so much down on its development, they are doubling down with pledges so far to spend upwards of another $US650 billion this year.
One or two may emerge victorious. Several could crumble.
Your super is betting large on AI
The growing alarm amongst investors still hasn't really sunk in.
Last Friday night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a collection of 30 prominent American companies spanning the US economic landscape, hit a record high, passing through 50,000 for the first time.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq exchange bounced back too, after a week of violent swings.
But it is now lagging the performance of old-fashioned industrials and financials, with the share prices of both Meta and Amazon lower than they were when Donald Trump came to power a year ago. Only Google's parent Alphabet is ahead on market valuations.
This is likely to have a big impact here in Australia.
The value of the magnificent seven has experienced a major decline. (Supplied: Refinitiv)
Like many big investors, Australia's superannuation funds flocked to the US to capitalise on the AI boom.
But as the graph above shows, that strategy has begun to unravel. Once the engine room of American financial and technological superiority, the so-called Magnificent 7 tech giants have run out of puff.
It wasn't just an idle side bet by our super funds either. Because they were heavily overexposed to Australian stocks, they've plunged headfirst into the Wall Street boom, which has helped drive spectacular returns over the past three years.
Now, they're faced with double trouble. Not only is the tech bet looking stretched, a stronger Australian dollar, which has appreciated almost 10 per cent since late last year, has begun weighing on returns.
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