Extract from ABC News
Analysis
Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev signed the "New START" treaty in Prague in 2010. (Kremlin Press)
The last treaty limiting the nuclear arms of the United States and Russia expires this week, even as the US pressures Iran over its nuclear capabilities, creating a new level of uncertainty at a time of increasing strategic competition around the globe.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) — originally negotiated by then-president Barack Obama in 2010 — not only put limitations on warheads but contained a detailed framework of notification, inspection, verification and compliance mechanisms between the two nations that possess 87 per cent of the world's nuclear weapons.
It was the latest in a series of treaties signed by the two superpowers going back to the Cold War.
President Donald Trump has expressed little interest in the potential implications of the end of the treaty, saying last month "if it expires, it expires".
But there is deep foreboding among long-term nuclear arms watchers.
Former US president George Bush and former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev exchange pens after signing the START treaty on July 31, 1991. (Reuters: Mal Langsdon)
Accelerating the arms race
Former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans, who co-chaired the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, says the end of the treaty is a "terrifying prospect" and has castigated Trump for "another catastrophic abdication of responsibility".
Australian academic Tilman Ruff, who helped form the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) — which won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize — says the demise of the treaty "will bring a definitive and alarming end to nuclear restraint between the two powers".
"It may very well accelerate the global nuclear arms race, too."
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) — a nonprofit organisation focused on reducing nuclear, biological, and emerging technology threats — says that "unless the two countries agree to maintain limits on their forces, the world will enter a period of potentially unconstrained nuclear build-ups".
The NTI said this period would be "more complex than the Cold War nuclear arms race given the additional dynamics of China's nuclear expansion and destabilising emerging technologies".
The end of the treaty comes not only with the changes in the global geo-strategic order, as China continues the aggressive expansion of its military base, but with one of the two signatories to the treaty involved in the largest land war in Europe since World War II. Meanwhile, Western European powers consider how best to maximise their nuclear deterrence as Trump pulls the US away from NATO.
Evans told the ABC the New START was the "last remaining legal check" on the size of US and Russian nuclear arsenals.
"Extension of the treaty for at least a year was there for the asking: failure to pursue this has been another catastrophic abdication of responsibility by President Trump," he said.
"This is the end of 50 years of effort at nuclear arms control, and it opens the door wide to a new nuclear arms race. It's a terrifying prospect."
Europe discusses weapon acquisition
The two existing Western European nuclear powers — the UK and France — have held talks to consider how they align their nuclear weapons programs, and how they fit into NATO, in the face of the tense military situation in Europe.
Other European countries are also discussing potentially acquiring their own weapons.
The Economist reported this week that there are now debates taking place in several European countries about developing their own nuclear weapons capability, including in Sweden, Poland and Germany.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters last week that European nations are starting to discuss ideas around a shared nuclear umbrella to complement existing security arrangements with the US.
"We know that we have to reach a number of strategic and military policy decisions, but at the moment, the time is not ripe," Merz said.
Germany is currently banned from developing a nuclear weapon of its own under the so-called "Two Plus Four Agreement" that opened the way for the country's reunification in 1990.
But the Chancellor said Germany's treaty obligations did not prevent it from discussing joint solutions with partners, including Britain and France.
Last year, French President Emmanuel Macron said he was opening "a strategic debate on using our deterrent to protect our allies on the European continent". Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said last month he had held preliminary discussions with France and Britain on nuclear weapons co-operation, but that the talks were "not very precise yet".
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters European nations are starting to discuss ideas around a shared nuclear umbrella. (Roni Rekomaa/Lehtikuva via AP)
Russia suspends commitment
The New START commenced in 2011 for an initial period of 10 years, but the US and Russia agreed to extend it in February 2021.
The treaty limits the US and Russia each to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads; 800 deployed and non-deployed strategic launchers; and no more than 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers.
It includes important safeguards such as provisions for short notice on-site inspections at each other's nuclear bases, and regular data exchanges.
With inspections halted by COVID, the US pushed to restart them in 2022.
Russia rebuffed those efforts, and, in February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country was suspending its commitment because of US support for Ukraine and "other hostile actions of the west".
Russia has stuck to the overall numerical limits on weapons but not to inspection processes. The US subsequently suspended any obligations to allow Russia to inspect its weapons arsenal.
United States President Donald Trump has said of the treaty: "if it expires, it expires." (Reuters: Jeenah Moon)
'Sounds like a good idea to me'
Last year, following the Trump-Putin Alaska summit, Putin proposed that both countries continue to observe the caps on weapons numbers for another year.
Trump said at the time that Putin's suggestion "sounds like a good idea to me".
But he later threatened to resume nuclear testing for the first time in more than 30 years, minutes before he was scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
"Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis," Trump wrote on Truth Social, his social media site, saying the process would begin immediately.
Putin subsequently announced Russia had successfully tested a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile, and separately, a nuclear torpedo called the Poseidon.
In a New York Times interview published on January 8, 2026, Trump noted that if the treaty "expires, it expires … We'll just do a better agreement".
"I actually feel strongly that if we're going to do it, I think China should be a member of the extension. China should be a part of the agreement," he said.
He added that he has spoken to Xi about it and thought "he'd be a willing participant".
"You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also," he said.
Analysts argue the inspection regime is as important for building and maintaining trust as the caps on weapons numbers.
Laura Tingle is the ABC's Global Affairs Editor.
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