Extract from Eureka Street
- Home
- Vol 36 No 3
- Trump’s most complicated constituency
- John Warhurst
- 18 February 2026
Donald Trump is surrounded by many influential Catholic insiders and supported by even greater numbers of Catholic supporters and voters. They hold his future in their hands to an extent not recognised by the mainstream media in Australia, which looks instead to the opposition Democrats and to various social movements to unseat him. While high-profile Catholic insiders, like Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and Spokesperson Leavitt, will not desert him, it is possible that enough everyday Catholics to make a difference in the November 2026 Congressional elections will do so. Their faith may be shaken.
Catholic voters will be influenced mainly by the same issues that impact on American society in general: domestic and foreign policies and the values and character of Trump and his administration. But there are three especially 'Catholic' influences that may play a part. The first is the likely salience of the anti-abortion issue; the second is the growing Latino presence among the American church; the third is the interventions by leaders in the United States Bishops Conference (USBC) and, indirectly, by the American Pope Leo himself.
Until 2024–25 the Catholic community, especially the white Catholic community, was solid behind Trump. Many Catholic bishops were also anti-Pope Francis. The USBC leadership was in the hands of conservatives. It had long accorded the 'pre-eminent' electoral priority to opposition to abortion and had consequently been anti-Democrat President Joe Biden and anti-Democrat 2024 candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, on those grounds. Some bishops refused communion to pro-choice Democrat politicians despite the Vatican’s disavowal of that course of action. The Catholic-dominated Supreme Court, many of whom were nominated by Trump during his first term in office (2016–2020), in its repudiation of established reproductive rights contained in the Roe v Wade case had galvanised the powerful pro-life movement behind Trump.
Pope Francis had taken issue with Trump by stressing a consistent ethic of life linking justice for immigrants and refugees with abortion. He made the two issues part of the one pro-life thread in Catholic teaching. He had also begun to slowly challenge the conservative character of the American church through strategic appointments to key dioceses and to the College of Cardinals. After Trump’s 2024 re-election, Francis had appointed a key ally, Robert McElroy, to the Washington DC archdiocese.
Trump’s Catholic insiders have always recognised the importance of church support. Not only have they backed him on controversial issues like his brutal deportation of immigrants, illegal and legal, by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, and derided alternative views, but they have deliberately cultivated a Catholic constituency. Vance, invited to speak at the annual March for Life in Washington, has lauded Trump as the 'most pro-life President ever'. Vance also strongly defended cuts to foreign aid in 2025 on spurious 'America First' theological grounds.
'Nevertheless, the Catholic world in the USA has been shifted slowly by Francis and Leo and by outrageous domestic events … and its pro-Trump voices are increasingly being challenged by official church voices. The Catholic chorus no longer sings with one voice.'
Catholic anti-Trump responses to the crackdown against immigrants came initially at the local level, within parish communities and some dioceses. Often those immigrants under threat were parishioners. Bishop Mark Seitz of El Paso, Texas, led the way. Parish priests and their communities rallied behind threatened migrants by their presence at courthouses and in public places. Eventually the USBC issued a Special Message on Immigration last November. Pope Leo continued to appoint pro-immigrant bishops in key dioceses, including the new Archbishop of New York, Ronald Hicks, in place of Trump sympathiser, Cardinal Timothy Dolan.
Trump’s aggressive foreign policy actions also took centre stage in late 2025 and early 2026. His abduction of President Maduro of Venezuela and his claims on Greenland led Pope Leo to challenge the US approach. Leo and his Secretary of State, Cardinal Parolin, advocated peace, not war, in international relations in clear pointed reference to the Trump administration.
Strong statements on similar lines by American cardinals like Blase Cupich of Chicago and Joseph Tobin of Newark, New Jersey, and by McElroy, archbishops and bishops, multiplied. They came not only from long-term Trump adversaries but also from previous supporters like former USBC President Timothy Broglio, Archbishop of the Military Ordinariate, who publicly questioned whether American soldiers should necessarily obey deployment to Greenland if ordered by the administration.
The Catholic church remains just one player in domestic and international politics. Not only is there still plenty of official and unofficial Catholic weight, conservative Catholic media and billionaire Catholic money behind him; Catholic bishops who challenge Trump are just one voice. They still may not be taken seriously by Trump Catholics.
Nevertheless, the Catholic world in the USA has been shifted slowly by Francis and Leo and by outrageous domestic events, most recently by Trump’s use of a racist meme to ridicule Barack and Michelle Obama, and its pro-Trump voices are increasingly being challenged by official church voices. The Catholic chorus no longer sings with one voice. This development is something to watch. Recent Pew Research surveys already show a significant and critical fall in Catholic support for President Trump.
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