Adani’s Carmichael coalmine: what happens next?

Extract from The Guardian

Carmichael coalmine

Controversial coalmine still faces hurdles including seven plan approvals, court challenges and royalties negotiations

Ben Smee

@BenSmee

Thu 11 Apr 2019 11.26 AEST Last modified on Thu 11 Apr 2019 12.01 AEST

 An anti-Adani coalmine protester interrupts a Scott Morrison speech. Photograph: Dave Hunt/EPA

On Tuesday the government approved the groundwater plan for Adani’s Carmichael coalmine in central Queensland. It’s the latest development in the long fight over the mine proposals, which environmental campaigners have turned into a landmark decision on Australia’s climate change policies. Here’s what the latest decision means for the mine’s prospects.

Is the mine now set to go ahead?

Adani’s Carmichael coalmine is likely to remain in limbo for several months – beyond the federal election – with the company unable to start construction work until the Queensland government approves two key management plans.
The mine faces significant additional hurdles, including seven further plan approvals, court challenges, royalties negotiations and securing access to the freight rail network.

But these can each be finalised after construction has started. Breaking ground at the mine site is considered by many as a critical point of no return, after which attempts to stop the project become more complicated.

What are the remaining hurdles?

The Queensland department of environment and science – not the state minister – is the approval authority for a Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Management Plan (GDEMP) and a conservation plan for the endangered black throated finch. Both of these have been approved by the federal government, but require Queensland approval before ground disturbance can occur.

The state government appears to have a trigger to reject Adani’s groundwater plan, in line with a longstanding state condition that the company is required to identify the previously unknown source of the Doongmabulla Springs.
Separate management plans related to groundwater research, modelling and management must be approved before the first extraction of coal from the site.
Native title remains an unresolved issue. Parts of the proposed Carmichael mine site remain under native title, and Guardian Australia understands the Queensland government will not formally extinguish native title until court challenges by Wangan and Jagalingou traditional owners have concluded.

Adani has previously said the parcels of land under native title and which require “tenure change” are “not needed for the initial project construction”.
In addition to the native title court challenge, the Australian Conservation Foundation has launched a court case arguing the federal government should have applied the “water trigger” to the proposal and required an environmental impact assessment.

Adani remains in negotiation with Aurizon about access to the Queensland common-use freight network. It is understood these discussions are likely to continue until September.

Aurizon has a formal obligation to negotiate with Adani, and convention is that the company would not deny access in most circumstances. In this case, there are complicating factors, including likely required upgrades to the Goonyella to Abbot Point rail line, which would transport coal to the Adani-run port near Bowen.
Adani has also not yet signed a royalties deferral deal with the Queensland government. Any such deal would save the company a significant amount of money by being able to front-load the repayments of capital finance, but there is no requirement that a deal is reached.

Which ones matter most?

Groundwater remains the most significant hurdle, and the most problematic condition for Adani to meet. With most of Queensland still in an extended drought, water security is a key issue. Lock the Gate polling of key central Queensland electorates last year indicated support for cancelling Adani’s water licences.
Comments by Queensland’s environment minister, Leanne Enoch, on Tuesday appear to indicate that Queensland may take its time with its groundwater decision. There is no statutory timeframe.
She said the state did not receive copies of reports by the CSIRO and Geoscience Australia until Tuesday, and said the federal government had required “several weeks” to evaluate the detail of those plans.

Any decision to reject a management plan does not itself end the Carmichael proposal. The mine has been approved. Adani can have several attempts, if required, to satisfy the environmental conditions.