Updated
Robert Mueller is going to finish his investigation. Eventually.
The
Special Counsel has spent nearly two years probing possible Russian
interference in the 2016 election and potential "obstruction of justice"
committed by President Donald Trump or his team.He's already claimed some major scalps, but the anticipation keeps building for the conclusion. But whenever it comes, the report and what it reveals could be … a bit underwhelming.
Robert Mueller won't post the full text of his report online. Don't expect him to front a dramatic press conference as bombshell allegations are dropped about the 2016 presidential election.
In fact, there's even a slim chance we'll find out nothing about Mr Mueller's final report.
When he finishes, Mr Mueller won't have much else to do
The rules that govern a special counsel investigation say Mr Mueller is only required to provide the Attorney-General with a "confidential report".Mr Mueller has to explain:
- what he's discovered
- who he's decided to prosecute
- who he's decided not to prosecute and why
Mr Mueller doesn't have any say in how much of his report is eventually made public.
That decision rests with Donald Trump's newly-confirmed Attorney-General William Barr.
The rules go on to say it's up to Mr Barr to tell Congress (specifically, the Chairman and Ranking Minority Members of the Judiciary Committees) that Mr Mueller is finished his report in a "brief notification".
Mr Barr's report to Congress has to explain:
- any actions that will be taken because of the investigation and the reasons for them
- Mr Barr's reasons for not following any of the actions Mr Mueller will recommend
There are no rules that state the public is entitled to see Mr Mueller's report as it is handed to Mr Barr.
That doesn't mean we'll see nothing at all.
From here, it's all in the hands of the Attorney-General
Mr Barr has to decide if the release of any sort of report is in the "public interest".
Technically, he could decide that it isn't.
Bruce Wolpe, visiting fellow at the United States Studies Centre, thinks that's unlikely.
Mr Wolpe said Mr Barr's confirmation hearings have given us an idea of how the Attorney-General will handle Mr Mueller's report when it's finished.
"[Mr] Barr effectively said, 'it is my intention to make as much of it public as possible'," Mr Wolpe said.
"My impression from listening to his testimony is that he actually wants to try and do the right thing here."But Mr Barr added plenty of caveats to his intentions to inform the public. Among them was that he wouldn't decide what to do with the report until he knew what it contains.
For that reason, others read his nomination testimony as a sign we'll be left in the dark.
"My expectation is that his report to congress will be in the form, 'I came, I saw, I conquered.' That's about it," said Paul Rozensweig, a senior fellow at the non-profit R Street Institute who previously served as senior counsel to Kenneth Starr.
Democrats or 'the Resistance' might determine what we see
House Democrats are demanding Mr Barr release the findings "without delay and to the maximum extent permitted by law."
They've threatened to subpoena the report, and could also subpoena Mr Mueller to testify publicly.
That's totally within their powers, said Mr Rosenzweig.
And yet…
"There's a long history of the executive branch resisting informational inquiries from congress on the grounds of executive privilege — the grounds that disclosing internal executive communications would chill candour within the executive."
Basically? Democrats could ask for more information. Donald Trump could say no. We get a big messy legal fight that ends up in the Supreme Court.
Even some Republicans have expressed support for making the report public. They — like the Democrats — worry about the risk of political spin and false information spreading.
Speaking of information spreading…
"There could certainly be a patriot in the White House staff who if they get their hands on the report, could leak it to the New York Times. I don't know if they ever fired that guy who wrote the op-ed," Mr Wolpe said.
There's a reason this is all very secret
The Starr Report.Just two days after Kenneth Starr completed his four-year investigation into president Bill Clinton and his relationship with Monica Lewinsky, his exhaustive 445-page report was released online, as was mandated by the Special Counsel's instructions.
"It read like a romance novel about the president of the United States having an affair with somebody," Mr Wolpe said. And it outlined 11 grounds for impeachment of the president.
"The reaction to it was one of ultimately, repugnance. The public just pushed back, they didn't like it."President Clinton's approval ratings actually went up and the rules for special counsel investigations were changed.
Mueller probably won't tell Congress to impeach Trump
Mr Wolpe expects Mr Mueller's final report will likely resemble the one from another famous investigation — Leon Jaworski's report into the Watergate scandal.As per its scope, the Jaworski report is a direct, 55-page account of the investigation into Watergate and the facts Mr Jaworski (and his predecessor Archibald Cox) uncovered while investigating president Richard Nixon.
It didn't tell Congress to impeach Mr Nixon.
"I think he [Mueller] will simply present the facts and say 'Congress, here it is and over to you'. And that would be a full discharge of his responsibilities," Mr Wolpe said.
"He'll let the document speak for itself."Mr Rozenswig agreed a succinct report is likely, adding that the bombshell revelations in the Watergate investigation came not through the Jaworski report, but from the House and Senate committees conducting their own investigations.
Here in 2019, similar House and Senate committees are just beginning that work (like hearing testimony from Mr Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen).
"Congress has a great deal of work to do," Mr Rozensweig said.Which means after almost two years, Robert Mueller turning in his report probably isn't going to be the end of this story.
It could be just the beginning.
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