Analysis
Updated
In the last month Donald Trump has triggered chaos in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
A phone call to Ukraine triggered an impeachment inquiry, and a phone call to Turkey triggered an invasion.These actions seem unconnected, but deliberately or not, massively benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.
And they both came at a time Putin was desperate for a win.
Putin in strife
Putin has learnt during his 20 years at the top of Russian politics that finding enemies to attack is the best way to stay popular.The pinnacle of this strategy was in 2014, when Putin used Russia's military might to invade Ukraine.
Along with picking up a nice chunk of land, the President's approval rating soared. Putin was popular once again.
The high approval rating he gained in the wake of that operation — about 60 to 85 per cent, depending on the pollster — held steady for four years as he conducted a global campaign to meddle in western democracies.
But soon after his re-election as President in March 2018, his luck began to change.
During his four years of popularity, Putin had been ignoring his country's worsening economic situation, brought about primarily by his decision to focus on foreign policy while turning a blind eye to corruption.But after his re-election, Putin announced a wildly unpopular policy: a five-year increase in the nation's retirement age.
His approval rating plummeted by about 20 per cent, and has stayed there in the year since, despite occasional attempts at chest-beating.
It was all looking a bit dire. But in the past four months, Putin's luck has changed, thanks to the actions of US President Donald Trump.
The Ukraine phone call
Trump's first helping hand to Putin was in the form of a phone call with the new Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.The White House told Zelensky that if he wanted face-to-face meetings with Donald Trump and access to the US military aid he needs to fight Russia in Eastern Ukraine, he would have to participate in Trump's scheme to smear his political opponents.
Russia vs The World
Russia has been spreading chaos in
Europe for years with hacking, funding, and spycraft. In early 2018 it
took it up a notch, with a chemical weapons attack.
So how has this helped Putin?
Putin's five-year war in Ukraine has been an attempt to isolate its neighbour and prevent it from joining the European Union. Weakening the Ukrainian government is an important part of this goal.
And while the White House's release of the phone call transcript has led to an impeachment investigation and severely damaged President Trump, but it has also caused problems for Zelensky.
His approval ratings are down for the first time since he was elected, and details of the phone call have damaged his relationship with the European Union at a time Zelensky was hoping to take steps to join it.
Zelensky, weakened both at home and internationally, has now indicated an openness to striking a deal with Putin.
The Turkey phone call
As Zelensky prepared for that phone call with Trump, the seeds of Putin's second stroke of luck were being sown in Turkey.In early July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accepted a shipment of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia, despite strenuous objections from its NATO ally, the United States.
In the three-way fight which followed, the US cut Turkey out of the trillion dollar F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, pushing Erdogan closer to Putin.
According to the Washington Post, the US President floated the idea of re-admitting Turkey to the F-35 program during a late night phone call in early October.
President Trump's offer was contingent on Erdogan not invading northern Syria.
The offer was rejected. Turkey invaded. And the United States withdrew.
It was a fundamental shift of the balance of power in the region.
Previously, America and its friends the Kurds were standing in the way of Russia and its ally, the Syrian Assad government.
But Trump's decision to evacuate his troops meant the Kurds were looking for new allies to protect them against their longtime enemy, Turkey.
Conveniently, the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov was in town.
At the moment Trump was abandoning the Kurds, Lavrov was flying into Kurdish territory to meet with senior officials.
Kurdish leaders quickly announced their new deal.
They would abandon their territory in northern Syria in exchange for Russian and Syrian protection from Turkey.
US Troops fled. Russia took control of the region. Putin's victories were celebrated at home.
Has Trump played into Moscow's hands in Syria? Russian papers today: “Trump's mistake is an unexpected lottery win for Russia"
"Trump's reckless actions strengthened Moscow’s position in Middle East"
“The oversized giant, America, lost its way in broad daylight" #ReadingRussia
"Trump's reckless actions strengthened Moscow’s position in Middle East"
“The oversized giant, America, lost its way in broad daylight" #ReadingRussia
The Trump administration's "ceasefire" will culminate with Presidents Erdogan and Putin planning the future of the region in a meeting in Sochi, Russia — site of Putin's billion dollar Dacha.
At the beginning of July this year Vladimir Putin was facing major protests against his policies at home, and Donald Trump seemed to have freed himself from some of the stench of Russian collusion following the completion of the Mueller report.
It's unclear whether Donald Trump knew that his actions were benefiting the man people have accused him of being beholden to, but by luck or cunning, Putin now has seen the US relationship with two allies fray and built new military alliances with Turkey and the Kurds.
At the time Putin needed it most, Trump has given him his first global victories in years.
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