It will be interesting to see whether what people perceive as ‘normal’ begins to change as well, and how that affects our economy
As the news on the job front continues to be bad, people remain oddly positive about the future, but new figures from the bureau of statistics on people’s beliefs about the future highlight how people’s mindset will influence the recovery from this recession.
The latest survey by the ABS on the impact of Covid-19 on households does not bode well for the next lot of jobs numbers.
While not completely analogous with the labour force figures (it’s a different sample of people) the latest survey of households suggests there was a drop in jobs in the early part of this month:
In early July, 63.5% of adults had a job – down from 64.6% in mid-June and well down on the 66.2% that were employed before the virus hit.
Given there are around 19 million people over the age of 18, that equates to roughly 170,000 fewer people working in early July compared to mid-June.
These are the first lot of figures that take into account the Melbourne lockdown. Whether they will get worse is tough to say – businesses might have been slow to respond and so more job losses are to come. But given the continuing numbers of cases in Victoria there is little reason to think things will improve.
And yet despite this, we remain a relatively positive bunch – or at least half of us are.
The household survey also asked people when did they think life would return to normal.
When you exclude the 10% who were unsure (seriously, take a guess!) and the 6% who said that life has not changed (cripes, this is what you consider normal?), just over half of us expect life to return to normal within six months.
Given the survey was done early this month, this effectively means just over 50% of adults think by the end of January next year Covid-19 will not be affecting their life.
That, I suspect, is a very optimistic view of life.
What is striking however is that even Victorians are that optimistic:
While just 1% of Victorians say life has already returned to normal, compared to 16% of those in the rest of Australia, all up 50% of Victorians think things will be back to normal in under six months.
When we breakdown the outlook by gender we find that men are more likely to think that we have just three months to wait, while women more likely expect it will take four to six months.
But combined, both are in relative agreement about the six month threshold:
It is a number that gives some pause because clearly life has not returned to normal. We have restrictions on state and national borders, on congregating indoors, on attending sporting events even outdoors and on just about every aspect of life.
And yet nearly 11% of the population say life is back to normal.
It suggests maybe a group of people for whom normal involved little work, travel, education or event going.
And thus it is not surprising perhaps that those aged over 65 are more likely to say that life has returned to normal:
And yet even across ages we see agreement that things should be back to normal within six months.
This of course would be wonderful. It is somewhat in alignment with the government’s recent expectations in its budget update.
And yet do we really think by the end of January there could be a packed house at the MCG to watch a cricket match, or a full theatre to see a play, or people going to a restaurant and feeling no concern about social distancing?
Do we expect international travel to have resumed as before within six months?
I suspect were the question framed in that manner, the response would be much less than 50%.
And yet I can understand (even as one whom is generally inclined to see the glass half empty) people willing themselves to hope for the best.
But half of us are not so inclined.
Because of course when I say just over half think things will be fine within six months, that means just under half don’t.
And around a third of us believe it will take more than a year for things to return to normal or that they never will.
This highlights the problem with this recession. For large sections of the economy – such as retail spending and hospitality – we need the economy to improve but also for people to feel safe and confident enough to go out and spend money.
Historically, spending in restaurants grows strongly when employment does – people feel comfortable enough to spend money on “a night out”.
But in this recession we not only have to clear the hurdle of feeling as though we have enough money to spend, but also that we feel safe enough to do so.
It will be worth watching to see whether people continue to see normality returning in the next six months and whether that six months keeps getting pushed further out.
And then it will be interesting to see whether what people perceive as “normal” begins to change as well, and how that affects our economy.
No comments:
Post a Comment