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MAHATMA GANDHI ~ Truth never damages a cause that is just.
Sunday, 19 July 2020
When it comes to managing the coronavirus crisis, Victoria's now on its own.
Will Scott Morrison start to apply pressure on Victoria for a swifter re-opening to avoid an even deeper recession?(ABC News)
Australia recorded its highest daily number of coronavirus cases back on March 28. There were 460 positive infections across the country that day, and the whole nation was on edge.
It was a time of regular National Cabinet crisis meetings, late-night press conferences to announce new rules and restrictions, and the cobbling together of unprecedented economic support packages.
The Prime Minister stood alongside the Chief Medical Officer most days to announce the daily national caseload. We truly were "all in it together".
On Friday, Australia recorded its second highest number of daily cases; 436. Yesterday was slightly better with 217.
Unlike in late March, an overwhelming majority of these cases are now a result of community transmission with no known source.
It's a far more dangerous situation, but there's one big difference. This time, the problem is concentrated in one state. Victoria.
The Andrews Government is flying solo
To be fair, there's plenty of national support being made available.
The Commonwealth is providing much needed Defence personnel and other state governments are chipping in too (when they're not busy boasting about how much better they're doing by comparison). Victoria is certainly receiving plenty of help.
But when it comes to managing the crisis this time around, Victoria is on its own.
A grim-faced Dan Andrews fronts lengthy press conferences each day to announce the number of positive cases, hospital admissions and, sadly, deaths. He put Melbourne back into lockdown without the need for an arm-wrestle in National Cabinet.
The Premier and his Chief Health Officer are contemplating even tougher Stage 4 restrictions if things don't improve quickly. They won't wait for approval from the Prime Minister. The Andrews government is flying solo in making these crucial decisions.
To be clear, the Premier has complete authority to do all this and the Prime Minister hasn't directly criticised his decisions. Morrison agrees the return of restrictions and home schooling is "regrettably necessary".
But he's also made it clear this is not a Team Australia failure that's led to the situation in Victoria. More specifically, Morrison has made it clear, however subtly, that this is not a failure on his part.
Testing the friendship
The Andrews Government is not unreasonably being blamed for breaches of hotel quarantine by private security contractors, shortfalls in contact tracing that have allowed the numbers to balloon and a general lack of transparency in explaining what's gone wrong.
As has been well documented, the Prime Minister and Premier need each other practically and politically and they have a solid working relationship.
Will Dan Andrews want to pursue a longer lockdown to completely end community transmission?(AAP: James Ross)
Yet as Andrews' popularity slides, it's clear Scott Morrison doesn't want to be dragged down with him.
An even bigger test of the friendship will come when Victoria eventually brings this current outbreak under control, hopefully sooner rather than later.
Will Andrews want to pursue a longer lockdown to completely end community transmission? Will Morrison start to apply pressure for a swifter reopening to avoid an even deeper recession?
Elimination v suppression
The Prime Minister is adamant any sort of "elimination" strategy is a bad idea on both the economic and health front. He fears it would cause far more job losses, while feeding a dangerous sense of community complacency when only a vaccine will stamp this virus out.
Andrews will have to convince Victorians the defences they thought were in place last time can be trusted this time.(AAP: Daniel Pockett)
The Victorian Premier, by contrast, seems more open to the idea of an elimination strategy, but has more pressing concerns to occupy his mind right now.
The decision over what to do when the caseload is back under control is one Andrews would no doubt love to be in a position to contemplate right now.
When the time comes to contemplate such things, however, there's no doubt Andrews will be under pressure to ensure community transmission is well and truly stamped out before reopening anything again.
He will have to convince Victorians the defences they thought were in place last time can be trusted this time.
Whether it's called an "elimination" strategy or a more aggressive form of "suppression", that's likely to mean a tougher approach from Andrews on the other side of this outbreak, a reluctance to reopen too quickly and a real test of his relationship with the Prime Minister.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9:00am on Sunday or on iview.
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