Analysis
Updated
Disappointment.
That is the word many are using at the close of the latest United Nations climate talks in Madrid. And many of those people are pointing to Australia — among a handful of countries — as part of the problem.
While the world agreed in Paris four years ago to stop global warming at well below 2 degrees Celsius, and to try to stop it at 1.5C, the details of how countries will be held to account are still being worked out.
Enter COP25, the second meeting of the parties to the Paris Agreement (and the 25th UN Climate Change Conference).
Up for discussion this time were a host of technical matters related to carbon markets, as well as details on how poorer countries would be compensated for climate-related damage, and wording for how countries would ratchet up their ambition next year.
Despite the conference being extended for two days past its planned ending, the conclusion was beset by watered-down compromise on some issues, while others were kicked down the road with no decision being made.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg, who spoke earlier at the conference about "loopholes" in climate negotiations, tweeted that the event appeared to be "falling apart".
"The science is clear, but the science is being ignored," she said.
Australia received special attention at the event for its position demanding it be allowed to use so-called "carryover credits" to meet its emissions reduction targets; getting it off the hook for having to reduce actual emissions.
Carry-over credits kicked on
Australia has promised to reduce its emissions to 26 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and it plans to get 90 per cent of the way there by using "carry-over credits" from a different climate treaty: the Kyoto Protocol.
Australia claims it gained those credits by beating targets set in the Kyoto Protocol — targets in which Australia was, for some time, allowed to actually increase emissions.
It says only about 10 per cent of its Paris target needs to be achieved using actual emissions reductions between 2020 and 2030.
At the conference, Australia appeared to be isolated in its demand, with no other countries pushing for a measure widely described as a "loophole".
Costa Rica's Environment Minister, Carlos Manuel Rodríguez, fingered Australia, along with Brazil and the US, for blocking progress.
"Some of the positions are totally unacceptable because they are inconsistent with the commitment and the spirit that we were able to agree upon [in Paris in 2015]," he said.
I am disappointed with the results of #COP25.
The international community lost an important opportunity to show increased ambition on mitigation, adaptation & finance to tackle the climate crisis.
But we must not give up, and I will not give up.
The international community lost an important opportunity to show increased ambition on mitigation, adaptation & finance to tackle the climate crisis.
But we must not give up, and I will not give up.
What happened?
According to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the talks were a lost opportunity.The decision on carry-over credits was part of what's been called the "rulebook for Paris".
As a result of disagreement on key clauses, its finalisation has been kicked down the road for next year's COP26 in the UK.
The push by developing countries for stronger wording on increasing finance for compensation over damage caused by climate change was rebuffed, as were calls for updated targets at next year's conference to be "ambitious".
While Australia contributed to the stalemate by pushing for carry-over credits to be allowed, Brazil and the US also played a significant role in things coming to a halt.
Brazil was pushing for a way of accounting for emissions reductions that many countries saw as double-counting, and the US took a hardline approach to compensation for developing countries.
What's next?
The last UN climate change conference before the Paris Agreement takes effect is set to be in Glasgow in November 2020.At that conference, countries are required to either update or "communicate" their climate reduction targets.
Central to the Paris Agreement is a "ratchet" mechanism, where countries are expected to lift their ambition over time.
Current targets are not enough to stop global warming at 1.5C or even 2C, instead taking the world to 3C of warming or more.
Inside and outside the conference room, many commentators have pointed to a polarisation in the debate around climate action.
While some world leaders advocate a conservative approach, there is also an increasing push for urgent action from some members of the public.
Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at Union of Concerned Scientists, said she had been attending since 1991 but had "never" seen anything like the almost "total disconnect" at COP25.
"[That is] between what the science requires and what the climate negotiations are delivering in terms of meaningful action."
"Led by the youth, growing numbers of people around the world are demanding that their leaders take bold, ambitious actions to tackle the climate crisis... But most of the world's biggest emitting countries are missing in action and resisting calls to raise their ambition.
Richie Merzian was a climate negotiator for Australia for almost a decade, and is now at the progressive think tank The Australia Institute.
Before heading back from Madrid, he said: "Despite clear and dire warnings from scientists, record levels of protests and unprecedented climate impacts, the conference fell victim to the base positions of a handful of major polluting countries, Australia included."
Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor was contacted for comment.
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