Well-meaning souls*,
rightfully concerned about the effect of “gloom-and-doom” talk on young
people, say that everything is hunky-dory, climate change impacts are
exaggerated (they often are) and climate change is not a serious threat
(unfortunately, it is).
Let’s look at reality, real data for the real world. The bell curves
refer to summer average temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere,
relative to what they were in the base period, 1951-1980. The bell
curve shows the frequency of occurrence of local temperature anomalies
in units of the standard deviation, which is the magnitude of typical
year-to-year fluctuations. The natural, year-to-year, variability leads
to a symmetric bell curve about the average during the base period.
The bell curve also defines the likelihood (probability) of a season
being perceived as relatively cool, normal or hot. One of us, in the
1980s, colored dice with two sides blue, two white and two red, to
represent those chances. The dice are now loaded, really loaded. The
past decade has summer temperatures that yield only one side of a die
being part blue and part white. Four sides of the die are now red (hot)
and one side is deep red for extreme heat, more than three standard
deviations warmer than in 1951-1980. Dark red (22%) is creeping onto
another side (one side is 1/6, which is about 16.7%).
The shift depends on where you live and the season. We updated graphs in our longer “Regional Climate Change and National Responsibilities.”
The subtropics in summer and the tropics all year are becoming
uncomfortably hot, and will become unlivable if we stay on our present
fossil fuel emissions course.
Old people should not apologize for revealing such facts. They should
apologize for letting political leaders accept bribes to stay the fossil
fuel course. Young people deserve more responsible leadership.
There is no reason to panic. It all can be hunky-dory, if we use common
sense. Don’t let politicians milk your anxiety about the future to
fund their ideology, a sure-fire path to more fruitless ideological
warfare.
A focus on personal emissions, or even national emissions, has little
effect. The underlying requirement is a steadily rising carbon fee,
readily accepted by the public if the funds are distributed uniformly to
all.
International technological cooperation will be required. We are all together in the same boat.
Jim opened a Twitter account @DrJamesEHansen, (https://twitter.com/drjamesehansen) but is focused on finishing Sophie’s Planet – will send out the next chapter in a day or two.
*Including my friend Michael Shellenberger |
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