Extract from ABC News
While the world is transfixed by US President Donald Trump's refusal to concede the election, president-elect Joe Biden is facing a daunting 2021.
Biden's administration will inherit a public health crisis and an economic crisis.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, the United States is on track to record its worst month of the pandemic in November.
Despite Trump's repeated lies on the campaign trail that the virus was "going away", the country surpassed 12 million cases on Saturday after recording over 1 million new cases in a seven-day period.
Hospitalisations hit record highs nationally and reported COVID-19 deaths surpassed 255,400, according to Johns Hopkins University.
As the public health crisis worsens, the number of Americans who are filing for unemployment insurance for the first time is still extraordinarily high — more than 700,000 a week.
And roughly 12 million workers are set to lose their unemployment benefits on December 26 when their emergency stimulus payments are scheduled to end, unless Congress extends them.
"Put simply, the Biden administration faces a troubled economy the likes of which haven't been seen in US history," writes R. Andrew Butters, assistant professor of business economics at Indiana University, in a piece for The Conversation published last week.
There is also the deep problem of social cohesion.
According to the research house Ipsos, the pandemic saw many societies become more "cohesive" at the start of the year as citizens pulled together to fight the then-unknown virus.
But social cohesion has frayed as the pandemic has evolved.
In a survey of more than 20,000 people across 27 countries, conducted between September 25 and October 9, Ipsos found only six countries were net positive in social cohesion now:
- China: +65 per cent
- Saudi Arabia: +37 per cent
- Australia: +12 per cent
- India: +11 per cent
- Malaysia: +4 per cent
- Sweden: +3 per cent
Every other country was net negative, with the worst including:
- Japan: -52 per cent
- South Korea: -52 per cent
- Poland: -51 per cent
- France: -49 per cent
- Belgium: -46 per cent
- Russia: -43 per cent
- Brazil: -42 per cent
The United States' negative score of -26 per cent put it in the middle of the pack.
"It is interesting that while much attention has been paid to the social rancour currently in the US, it ranks in the middle of countries on social cohesion, although it is decidedly negative as well," the report said.
Specifically, the social cohesion index in the US was dragged down by its citizens' feelings about identity, fairness, and system trust.
How will Biden overcome these challenges?
As things stand, he is facing a possibly divided Congress, which will make it difficult for him to pursue his legislative agenda.
Depending on the result of the two senate runoffs in Georgia — which won't be settled until January — he may face a Republican Senate and a Democratic House of Representatives.
If that happens, he will be the first president-elect since 1988 to take office with a split Congress.
He will have to negotiate with a "Trumpist" Republican Party.
Biden has said he will prioritise the public health crisis, and he wants to pursue far more stimulus spending.
He has also said he will be more sympathetic to statewide shutdowns to manage the coronavirus than Trump.
But Congress controls taxing and spending decisions and he will only be able to accept or veto laws they pass, so his stimulus plans may be stymied.
"A split Congress (as is likely) suggests less, rather than more, fiscal support," Kim Mundy, a senior economist and currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank, wrote to clients this month.
"If history serves as a guide to the future, Republicans are less supportive of fiscal stimulus when in opposition.
"[But] the longer the US economy takes to recover, the greater the chance economic damage becomes permanent.
"This is why delays to providing fiscal support can be costly."
Climate change is a high priority, China policy unlikely to change
On climate change, Biden has said he will rejoin the Paris Accord on his first day in the White House.
He has pledged to invest $US1.7 trillion ($2.32 trillion) over a decade as part of a "Clean Energy Revolution", and says US energy will be 100 per cent clean by 2035.
He also wants to tax carbon-intensive goods coming from countries that are failing to meet their climate obligations.
But his progress on climate change could also be limited by a split Congress, so he may have to rely on executive orders.
"During his presidency, President Trump overturned over 70 environmental regulations," Mundy said.
"Biden is likely to reinstate many, including vehicle-emissions standards and limits on methane production for oil and gas operations."
On foreign policy, Biden says he wants to repair relations with the United States' traditional allies, and analysts expect his administration will be more predictable and will value multilateralism over unilateralism.
But he is less likely to change US policy on China.
"Less uncertainty will be to the benefit of trading nations such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada," Mundy noted.
Healing division while healing the health system
In this age of mass protest, Biden will face a deeply divided America, .
Back in March, the Center for Strategic & International Studies in the US released a worrying report detailing how the number of uprisings globally had risen by an average of 11.5 per cent a year between 2009 and 2019.
"The size and frequency of recent protests eclipse historical examples of eras of mass protest, such as the late 1960s, late 1980s and early 1990s," the report said.
"Analysis of the root causes of these global protests suggests they will continue and could increase in 2020 and beyond.
"Factors that could increase the rate of protest include slowing global economic growth, worsening effects of climate change, and foreign meddling in internal politics via disinformation and other tactics."
A few months after that report came out, the Black Lives Matter protests erupted in the US and spread around the world.
And even though the annus horribilis of 2020 is nearing its end, and Trump has lost the election by a decisive popular-vote margin of more than 6 million, his supporters say "Trumpism" is here to stay.
Until recently, Australia's Government loved to say — erroneously — that budget surpluses were crucial for a strong economy.
But as we head into 2021, the surplus that matters is our health surplus.
Thanks largely to the sacrifices of Victorians, Australia's economy has a much better chance of withstanding negative shocks next year because our public health situation is under control.
In a recent phone call with Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Biden said he wanted to learn from us.
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